Breeding Distributions of North American Bird Species Moving North as a Result of Climate Change

Abstract:  Geographic changes in species distributions toward traditionally cooler climes is one hypothesized indicator of recent global climate change. We examined distribution data on 56 bird species. If global warming is affecting species distributions across the temperate northern hemisphere, these data should show the same northward range expansions of birds that have been reported for Great Britain. Because a northward shift of distributions might be due to multidirectional range expansions for multiple species, we also examined the possibility that birds with northern distributions may be expanding their ranges southward. There was no southward expansion of birds with a northern distribution, indicating that there is no evidence of overall range expansion of insectivorous and granivorous birds in North America. As predicted, the northern limit of birds with a southern distribution showed a significant shift northward (2.35 km/year). This northward shift is similar to that observed in previous work conducted in Great Britain: the widespread nature of this shift in species distributions over two distinct geographical regions and its coincidence with a period of global warming suggests a connection with global climate change.     

Are Modern Biological Invasions an Unprecedented Form of Global Change?

Abstract:  The uniqueness of the current, global mass invasion by nonindigenous species has been challenged recently by researchers who argue that modern rates and consequences of nonindigenous species establishment are comparable to episodes in the geological past. Although there is a fossil record of species invasions occurring in waves after geographic barriers had been lifted, such episodic events differ markedly from human-assisted invasions in spatial and temporal scales and in the number and diversity of organisms involved in long-distance dispersal. Today, every region of the planet is simultaneously affected and modern rates of invasion are several orders of magnitude higher than prehistoric rates. In terms of its rate and geographical extent, its potential for synergistic disruption and the scope of its evolutionary consequences, the current mass invasion event is without precedent and should be regarded as a unique form of global change. Prehistoric examples of biotic interchanges are nonetheless instructive and can increase our understanding of species-area effects, evolutionary effects, biotic resistance to invasion, and the impacts of novel functional groups introduced to naïve biotas. Nevertheless, they provide only limited insight into the synergistic effects of invasions and other environmental stressors, the effect of frequent introductions of large numbers of propagules, and global homogenization, all of which characterize the current mass invasion event .     

Lag Effects in the Impacts of Mass Coral Bleaching on Coral Reef Fish, Fisheries, and Ecosystems

Abstract:  Recent episodes of coral bleaching have led to wide-scale loss of reef corals and raised concerns over the effectiveness of existing conservation and management efforts. The 1998 bleaching event was most severe in the western Indian Ocean, where coral declined by up to 90% in some locations. Using fisheries-independent data, we assessed the long-term impacts of this event on fishery target species in the Seychelles, the overall size structure of the fish assemblage, and the effectiveness of two marine protected areas (MPAs) in protecting fish communities. The biomass of fished species above the size retained in fish traps changed little between 1994 and 2005, indicating no current effect on fishery yields. Biomass remained higher in MPAs, indicating they were effective in protecting fish stocks. Nevertheless, the size structure of the fish communities, as described with size-spectra analysis, changed in both fished areas and MPAs, with a decline in smaller fish (<30 cm) and an increase in larger fish (>45 cm). We believe this represents a time-lag response to a reduction in reef structural complexity brought about because fishes are being lost through natural mortality and fishing, and are not being replaced by juveniles. This effect is expected to be greater in terms of fisheries productivity and, because congruent patterns are observed for herbivores, suggests that MPAs do not offer coral reefs long-term resilience to bleaching events. Corallivores and planktivores declined strikingly in abundance, particularly in MPAs, and this decline was associated with a similar pattern of decline in their preferred corals. We suggest that climate-mediated disturbances, such as coral bleaching, be at the fore of conservation planning for coral reefs.     

土地利用变化对城郊农业区生态效益的影响——以四川省南充市高坪区为例

借鉴生态效益综合评价的有关理论和数学模型,以四川省南充市高坪区为例,选取生物多样性指数、植被覆盖指数、水土保持效益指数、土壤改良指数、涵养水源指数、拦截径流指数和湿度指数7个指标作为评价因子,建立生态效益评价体系,对该区域1996和2005年2个时期综合生态效益进行评估和比较.结果表明,该区域综合生态效益值分别为7.85和7.95,2005年比1996年略为升高;基于GIS的图层叠置、分割等分析功能,就区域土地利用变化对其内部生态效益造成的变化进行了分析,该区域可被划分为生态效益显著增强区、增强区、保持区、减弱区和显著减弱区5个等级.     

集约化农区经济发展对耕地土壤有机碳含量变化的影响

陆地生态系统土壤有机碳储量变化是全球气候变化研究的重要方面,而耕地土壤有机碳含量是当中最活跃的部分,与人类利用行为以及社会经济发展水平相联系。文章选取黄淮海平原的北京市大兴区、河北省曲周县和黄土高原的山西省兴县的446个耕作层土壤20世纪80年代和2000年的有机碳含量数据和当地的社会经济、投入产出资料,结果表明:20年来,不同区域耕地土壤有机碳含量存在空间变异,但是其空间分布格局并未发生变化;对土地的集约利用并未造成土壤有机碳含量的降低,相反,各区域土壤有机碳含量普遍增加。结合相应的农户调查和统计资料,发现区域经济发展强烈地影响着土壤有机碳储量发生变化。无论自然条件优劣,还是经济发展水平处于何种阶段,经济的发展都能够促使农户增加对土地的投入,经济发达地区有充足的资金和市场保障,通过农业结构调整会增加对土地的投入;经济落后地区追求作物高产,促使土地投入也不断增加;使得作物经济产量和生物产量获得提高,促使耕地土壤有机碳含量增加。     

Motivations for the Restoration of Ecosystems

Abstract:  The reasons ecosystems should be restored are numerous, disparate, generally understated, and commonly underappreciated. We offer a typology in which these reasons—or motivations—are ordered among five rationales: technocratic, biotic, heuristic, idealistic, and pragmatic. The technocratic rationale encompasses restoration that is conducted by government agencies or other large organizations to satisfy specific institutional missions and mandates. The biotic rationale for restoration is to recover lost aspects of local biodiversity. The heuristic rationale attempts to elicit or demonstrate ecological principles and biotic expressions. The idealistic rationale consists of personal and cultural expressions of concern or atonement for environmental degradation, reengagement with nature, and/or spiritual fulfillment. The pragmatic rationale seeks to recover or repair ecosystems for their capacity to provide a broad array of natural services and products upon which human economies depend and to counteract extremes in climate caused by ecosystem loss. We propose that technocratic restoration, as currently conceived and practiced, is too narrow in scope and should be broadened to include the pragmatic rationale whose overarching importance is just beginning to be recognized. We suggest that technocratic restoration is too authoritarian, that idealistic restoration is overly restricted by lack of administrative strengths, and that a melding of the two approaches would benefit both. Three recent examples are given of restoration that blends the technocratic, idealistic, and pragmatic rationales and demonstrates the potential for a more unified approach. The biotic and heuristic rationales can be satisfied within the contexts of the other rationales.     

Deforestation and Plant Diversity of Madagascar's Littoral Forests

Abstract:  Few studies have attempted to quantify the reduction or document the floristic composition of forests in Madagascar. Thus, we focused specifically on deforestation and plant diversity in Madagascar's eastern littoral community. We used a data set of approximately 13,500 specimen records compiled from both historical and contemporary collections resulting from recent intensive inventory efforts to enumerate total plant species richness and to analyze the degree of endemism within littoral forests. Change in littoral forest cover from original to current extent was estimated using geographical information systems tools, remote sensing data (satellite imagery and low-elevation digital photography), and environmental data layers. Of the original littoral forest only 10.3% remains in the form of small forest parcels, and only 1.5% of these remaining fragments are included within the existing protected-areas network. Additionally, approximately 13% of Madagascar's total native flora has been recorded from these forests that originally occupied <1% of its total land surface, and over 25% of the 1535 plant species known from littoral forests are endemic to this community. Given the ongoing pressure from human settlement along Madagascar's eastern coast, protection of the remaining forest fragments is critical for their survival. Fifteen of the largest intact littoral forest fragments we identified, collectively representing 41.5% of remaining littoral forest, are among priority sites recommended to the government of Madagascar for plant conservation and incorporation into the protected-areas network.     

Adjustment costs from environmental change

The paper is concerned with the case whereby the distribution of a firm's productivity shocks changes without the knowledge of the firm. Over time the firm learns about the nature and extent of the change in the distribution of the shock and adjusts, incurring adjustment costs in the process. The long-run loss in profits (±) due to the shift in the distribution we term the equilibrium response. The transitory loss in profits, incurred while the firm is learning about the distribution shift, is termed the adjustment cost. The theory is then applied to the problem of measuring adjustment costs in the face of imperfectly observed climate change in agriculture. The empirical part of the paper involves estimating a restricted profit function for agricultural land in a five-state region of the Midwest US as a function of prices, land characteristics, actual weather realizations and expected weather. We then simulate the effect of an unobserved climate shock, where learning about the climate shock is by observing the weather and updating prior knowledge using Bayes Rule. We find adjustment costs to climate change are 1.4% of annual land rents.     

Clearing the air: The costs and consequences of higher CAFE standards and increased gasoline taxes

Concerns about energy security and climate change have sparked legislators’ interest in reducing gasoline consumption by increasing corporate average fuel-economy (CAFE) standards. Using an empirically rich simulation model and cost estimates for anticipated fuel-economy technologies, we estimate annual costs of reducing long-run gasoline consumption by 10% via a 3.8 miles per gallon increase in the standards, and the potential cost savings from allowing manufacturers to buy and sell fuel-economy credits. Maximum gasoline savings would be realized only after all existing vehicles were replaced, or 14 years in our model. A gasoline tax would produce greater immediate savings by encouraging people to drive less, and eventually to choose more-fuel-efficient vehicles. We demonstrate the advantage of a tax by comparing the cost of the higher CAFE standards over the first 14 years against the cost of a gasoline tax that would save the same amount of gasoline over that time.     

沂河流域土地利用时空变化图谱特征分析

基于沂河流域1995年、2005年和2015年土地利用空间数据,运用地学信息图谱方法构建1995-2005年和2005-2015年两个时序单元的土地利用转移图谱和涨落势图谱,分析了沂河流域近20年来的土地利用时空变化规律及发展过程。结果表明：（1）1995-2015年,沂河流域土地利用结构以耕地和林地为主,其中耕地和草地减少,林地和建设用地增加是主要变化趋势。（2）土地利用转移图谱以耕地与林地、草地之间的相互转换以及建设用地占用耕地为主,林地、草地转变为耕地主要发生在费县和平邑县中部地势平缓的山前平原,耕地转变为林地、草地则主要分布于研究区北部和西南部土壤侵蚀较为严重的山区,耕地转变为建设用地主要集中在各县市城区周边经济相对发达的区域。两个时序单元中,发生变化的主要图谱单元类型及面积存在显著差异,2005-2015年土地利用发生转换的空间进一步扩张。（3）土地利用涨势图谱中新增耕地面积最大,占新增面积的比例为33.87%;落势图谱中耕地萎缩面积最大,占萎缩面积的比例为51.38%。两个时序单元中,各县市涨落势图谱变化存在明显差异。该研究可为沂河流域土地资源的可持续利用及生态建设提供科学依据。