Identifying Reefs of Hope and Hopeful Actions: Contextualizing Environmental, Ecological, and Social Parameters to Respond Effectively to Climate Change

Abstract:  Priorities for conservation, management, and associated activities will differ based on the interplay between nearness of ecosystems to full recovery from a disturbance (pristineness), susceptibility to climate change (environmental susceptibility [ES]), and capacity of human communities to cope with and adapt to change (social adaptive capacity [AC]). We studied 24 human communities and adjacent coral reef ecosystems in 5 countries of the southwestern Indian Ocean. We used ecological measures of abundance and diversity of fishes and corals, estimated reef pristineness, and conducted socioeconomic household surveys to determine the AC of communities adjacent to selected coral reefs. We also used Web-based oceanographic and coral mortality data to predict each site's ES to climate warming. Coral reefs of Mauritius and eastern Madagascar had low ES and consequently were not predicted to be affected strongly by warm water, although these sites were differentiated by the AC of the human community. The higher AC in Mauritius may increase the chances for successful self-initiated recovery and protective management of reefs of this island. In contrast, Madagascar may require donor support to build AC as a prerequisite to preservation efforts. The Seychelles and Kenya had high ES, but their levels of AC and disturbance differed. The high AC in the Seychelles could be used to develop alternatives to dependence on coral reef resources and reduce the effects of climate change. Pristineness weighted toward measures of fish recovery was greatest for Kenya's marine protected areas; however, most protected areas in the region were far from pristine. Conservation priorities and actions with realistic chances for success require knowledge of where socioecological systems lie among the 3 axes of environment, ecology, and society.     

Using social resilience and resource dependency to increase the effectiveness of marine conservation initiatives in Salum,Egypt

The social and economic ramifications of marine conservation strategies such as marine protected areas (MPAs) are important to consider prior to their implementation to ensure that they do not exceed the resilience of resource-users and that resource protection might be maximised through compliance and low resistance. This paper presents a framework in which the human dimensions can be more easily and usefully integrated into the design and delivery of conservation initiatives. The framework espouses quantifying (1) the level of dependency on the resource; (2) perceptions towards conservation initiatives; and (3) social resilience. The framework is applied in Salum, Egypt, which is the site of a prospective MPA.     

Vulnerability Assessment of Sea Level Rise Over Port Said Governorate, Egypt

An assessment of the impact of sea level rise on the city of Port Said, Egypt has been carried out using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Bruun's is used to estimate horizontal retreat, due to three scenarios of sea level rise, taking into account local subsidence rates. Overlaying horizontal retreat on land use obtained by remote sensing enabled us to estimate possible losses and socio-economic impacts. Results indicate serious physical and socio-economic impacts. It is suggested that protection measures must be carried out with emphasis on building breakwaters along the most vulnerable shoreline area.     

The perceived psychological distance of climate change impacts and its influence on support for adaptation policy

Factors influencing support for climate mitigation policy in the United States are well researched, however, research regarding individuals’ support for climate adaptation policy is relatively sparse. This study explores how an individual’s perception of climate change impacts may influence their support for adaptation actions. Results of a survey of the U.S. public (n = 653) indicates that individuals who believe climate change impacts are unlikely to happen or will primarily affect other people in other places are less likely to be concerned about climate change impacts and less likely to support climate adaptation. However, an individual’s support for climate change adaptation measures is not influenced by their perception of when climate change impacts will occur even when taking into account concern for climate impacts. Critical for policy-makers, a belief that climate adaptation measures will not be effective attenuates the relationship between psychological distance, concern for climate change impacts, and adaptation policy measures. Our results indicate that to effectively communicate about climate change, policy-makers should emphasize that: (i) climate change impacts are occurring, (ii) that their constituents are being affected now, or will be in the future, and (iii) communicate that adaptation measures can be effective in addressing risks associated with climate change impacts.     

中国松嫩草原羊草植硅体对全球变暖和氮沉降模拟的响应研究

在松嫩草原应用红外线增温和人工施氮的方法对羊草群落模拟全球变暖和氮沉降,提取羊草中的植硅体,分析探讨植硅体的形态及数量变化规律.羊草中的植硅体可以划分为4个大类和12个亚类,以及较小的植硅体碎片,其中帽型植硅体含量高达70%.尖顶帽型和平顶帽型植硅体与刺帽型植硅体可能有不同的发育机制,并且尖型植硅体对施氮更为敏感;与对照相比,增温处理对羊草植硅体的发育有促进作用(长宽增加0.1～2.6μm),而施氮处理则有一定的抑制作用(长宽减小0.1～1.4μm),增温和施氮交叉作用,则施氮对羊草植硅体发育表现出的抑制作用明显减弱;施氮处理中出现其他处理中未见到的空心棒型(占棒型总量的46%),而且除棒型、帽型、尖型以外的植硅体含量增加到10%,从而推测,对于以羊草为优势植物的松嫩草原,施氮的影响可能要强于增温,如果两者同时作用,增温能在一定程度上缓解施氮的影响.实验中的羊草植硅体对模拟全球变化很敏感,说明植硅体对环境因子的改变很敏感,其作为古环境的代用指标应是可靠的.     

A Yin‐Yang approach to education policy regarding health and the environment: early‐careerists' image of the future and priority programmes

Since the inception of sustainable development (SD), there has been a somewhat ignored contradiction between paradigms that are ecosystem‐based and paradigms that are human‐based or purely economic. We suggest that this contradiction can be unified through a balance of the two. The Chinese Yin‐Yang philosophy is applied as a tool or approach to seeking balance between these ecocentric and anthropocentric paradigms. Priority education policy design for the merging of ecology and health are projected through an Ecohealth lens in response to increasing SD challenges and the intention of the international Ecohealth organization to contribute to SD goals. Meeting SD goals along the nexus of health and environment is further considered through early‐careerist cultural assessments and projections. The groups considered for their professional image of the future are: members of the Ecohealth Association Student Section and Chinese early‐careerists participating in a related conference. In response to SD goals, a problem‐based learning design is suggested as an education policy priority. Rather than approaching SD as a boolean concept, for example, by either focusing on ecosystem sustainability or economic development, we suggest education policy for programmes and curriculums that will help emerging professionals balance these paradigms, so as to best address national and global challenges.     

Assessing local climate action plans for public health co-benefits in environmental justice communities

Climate change presents a complex environmental health and justice challenge for the field of urban planning. To date, the majority of research focuses on measuring local climate efforts and evaluating the general efficacy of adopted climate action plans (CAPs). Cumulatively, these studies argue that socio-economic and demographic variables (such as the fiscal health of cities, city size, and median household income) are important factors in implementing climate policies. Less studied are issues of environmental justice and the impacts of climate change on population health. Through interviews with urban planners and a document analysis of CAPs, this study assesses how California cities with high levels of pollution and social vulnerability address climate change and public health. The findings of this study show that CAPs in these cities rarely analyse whether greenhouse gas reduction strategies will also yield health co-benefits, such as a reduction in the co-pollutants of climate change (i.e. ozone, particulate matter, and nitrogen oxides). In many instances, the net co-benefits of health are not monetised, quantified, or even identified by local governments. In California's most impacted cities, climate planning activities and work on public health are happening in a parallel manner rather than through an integrated approach. The results suggest a need for increased opportunities for interagency coordination and staff training to conduct health analyses, free and easily accessible tools, methods for prioritising funding streams, and the development of partnerships with community-based organisations for linking climate planning with public health.     

A methodological framework and tool for assessing the climate change related risks in the banking sector

Although climate change risks have been studied for a number of economic sectors, banking has received relatively little attention. The paper proposes a methodology and an associated decision-support tool for quantifying, in monetary terms, the risks for banks from the exposure of their loan recipients and/or applicants to climate change. The framework and tool are applied to a case study based on input from a Greek bank; results indicate that climate change risks for banks are considerable, and thus decision makers need to estimate their magnitude and possibly consider these within the credit management process, and in environmental planning.     

Decision support for adaptive action – assessing the potential of geographic visualization

This study explores the role of geographic visualization for supporting the implementation of climate change adaptation. Interviews and group discussions with planners and decision makers indicate that geographic visualization bears primary potential for communicative purposes. In order to respond to analytical needs a high level of interactivity including the exploration of background data and the ability to link the tools with own databases were some of the key requirements made by the participants. The study concludes that more than better climate predictions, awareness and involvement may be precisely what is needed to narrow the implementation gap in climate change adaptation.     

Adaptation potential of ecosystem-based management to climate change in the eastern Canadian boreal forest

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) of forests is gaining acceptance for its focus on the maintenance of the long-term integrity of ecosystem processes, but climate change challenges this view because of its impacts on these very processes. We have therefore evaluated the robustness of EBM to projected climate change, considering the role of climate on forest growth and fire regime in a boreal forest of eastern Canada. A climate sensitive growth index model was calibrated for three commercial species and used to project the evolution of merchantable volume for two climate scenarios (B1 and A2) under conventional and EBM strategies. Current burn rate and burn rates under future climate scenarios were also considered. Under the most extreme projected climate scenario, the periodic timber supply could be reduced by up to 79% through direct (growth reduction) and indirect (fire) effects. However, ecological indicators show that EBM is a more robust forest management strategy than conventional one demonstrating its adaptation potential to climate change at least in the short term.