秦岭北麓平原对全球变暖的响应及其对果业发展的影响研究

论文分析了秦岭北麓8县的近41年的气候变化规律,发现该地区气候变化趋势与全国和全球相似,向暖干化方向发展。采用近41年气候特征值对苹果适宜性进行评价,发现该地区并不是苹果生长的适宜区。夏季高温、较高的相对湿度和较短的日照时数是苹果生长的不利因素。结合目前的气候变化趋势,推论出该地区苹果的病虫害将会加重,苹果质量将进一步下降。地区果业发展中,减少苹果栽种面积和优化果品生产结构仍然具有一定潜力。     

SENSITIVITY OF A PRAIRIE WETLAND TO INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION CHANGES1

ABSTRACT: We assessed the potential effects of increased temperature and changes in amount and seasonal timing of precipitation on the hydrology and vegetation of a semi-permanent prairie wetland in North Dakota using a spatially-defined, rule-based simulation model. Simulations were run with increased temperatures of 2°C combined with a 10 percent increase or decrease in total growing season precipitation. Changes in precipitation were applied either evenly across all months or to individual seasons (spring, summer, or fall). The response of semi-permanent wetland P1 was relatively similar under most of the seasonal scenarios. A 10 percent increase in total growing season precipitation applied to summer months only, to fall months only, and over all months produced lower water levels compared to those resulting from the current climate due to increased evapotranspiration. Wetland hydrology was most affected by changes in spring precipitation and runoff. Vegetation response was relatively consistent across scenarios. Seven of the eight seasonal scenarios produced drier conditions with no open water and greater vegetation cover compared to those resulting from the current climate. Only when spring precipitation increased did the wetland maintain an extensive open water area (49 percent). Potential changes in climate that affect spring runoff, such as changes to spring precipitation and snow melt, may have the greatest impact on prairie wetland hydrology and vegetation. In addition, relatively small changes in water level during dry years may affect the period of time the wetland contains open water. Emergent vegetation, once it is established, can survive under drier conditions due to its ability to persist in shallow water with fluctuating levels. The model's sensitivity to changes in temperature and seasonal precipitation patterns accentuates the need for accurate regional climate change projections from general circulation models.     

汉江上游金水河流域近50年气候变化特征及其对生态环境的影响

利用5年滑动平均距平分析、线性回归分析、相关分析及Autoregression 模型等统计分析方法,分析了近50年（1957~2004年）汉江上游金水河流域年度和春、夏、秋、冬4季气温和降水变化特征及其对流域生态环境的影响。结果显示：近50年来金水河流域气候变化呈现气温升高、降水量减少的暖干化趋势。年平均气温总体上升了111℃,同时在上世纪90年代到本世纪初,年平均气温增幅最大,达到06℃;季节变化中,冬季增温最显著（〖WTBX〗p〖WTBZ〗<001）。年平均降水量总体下降了1196 mm,在1985~1997年间,降水量呈现显著波动下降趋势,最大降幅为3452 mm;而季节变化中,夏季下降最明显。在未来10年,流域内气温将持续增加,年平均气温将增加013℃,降水量将逐年减少,年平均降水量将减少78%。金水河流域过去近50年的气候变化对流域内的生态环境产生了较大的影响,从而加剧了流域生态系统的脆弱性,从一定程度上对南水北调中线工程的水资源安全构成了威胁。     

Competition gives way to cooperation: rethinking Sino-Indian relations in climate change negotiations

In global climate change politics, China and India have worked closely with each other, representing two big emitters from the developing world. This article reviews Sino-Indian cooperation during four UN climate change negotiations from 2009 to 2012. Their collaboration echoed the perception of neorealism in international relations (IR) studies that states will seek “external balancing” for maximizing national “relative gains”. China and India are expected to continue their cooperation on climate change issues when sharing the same structural position as big economies and big emitters, the same pressure in carbon emission reductions, and the same goal of improving living standards for their citizens. Encountering the devastating impacts of climate change and the deadlock in responsibility division in current global climate change governance, this work seeks to shed light on the evolving multilateral governance environment and its complex implications for Sino-Indian relations from an IR perspective.     

利用H+浓度变化控制含Cl-的氨氮废水的电解时间

采用电化学间接氧化法处理含Cl^-的中高浓度氨氮废水,针对不同浓度的氨氮废水的电解时间的控制,提出利用废水的H⁺浓度变化控制氨氮废水实际处理时间.从理论计算及对模拟和实际氨氮废水进行电解分析发现：当废水氨氮还没有完全降解时,每一个NH₄⁺降解的过程中会生成一个H⁺,c（H⁺）随着时间线性上升;当氨氮刚好完全降解时,c（H⁺）达到最大值;此后继续电解且废水pH＜7时,电解过程形成的OH^-会持续消耗H⁺,c（H⁺）随着时间线性下降.利用pH计实时监测废水的pH值,通过程控信号转换器进行c（H⁺）与pH值的换算,将pH值信号转化为c（H⁺）信号,可提高决策的准确性和灵敏度.     

Patterns and drivers of forest land cover changes in tropical semi-deciduous forests in Ghana

This study was conducted to determine the patterns and drivers of forest land cover changes in Bobiri and Oboyow Forest Reserves (BFR and OFR, respectively), Ghana. Landsat images were employed to determine forest land cover types and changes in 1990, 2000 and 2010 using supervised classification method. Factors that drive forest land cover changes in the forest reserves were determined using a semi-structured questionnaire and field observations. Generally, closed-canopy forest decreased by 49% in both forests over 20-year period resulting in a tremendous increase in open-canopy forest (BFR: 85%; OFR: 46%) and non-forest land cover types (BFR: 48–80% OFR: 127–350%). Factors such as logging manual illiteracy among timber operators, offences of authorised timber operators, ineffective community participation, harvesting schedule revision, chainsaw logging, illegal logging, bushfires, fuel gathering and weak penalty for offences were identified as contributing to rapid depletion of closed canopy forest cover in the forest reserves.     

A process perspective on psychological contract change: Making sense of,and repairing,psychological contract breach and violation through employee coping actions

Psychological contracts are dynamic, but few studies explore the processes driving change and how employees influence them. By adopting a process approach with a teleological change lens, and drawing upon the sensemaking and coping literatures, this study positions individuals as active and adaptive agents driving contract change. Employing a mixed methodology, with a four‐wave longitudinal survey (n = 107 graduate newcomers) and qualitative interviews (n = 26 graduate newcomers), the study focuses on unfolding events and develops an “adaptive remediation” process model aimed at unraveling contract dynamics. The model demonstrates how breach or violation events trigger sensemaking, resulting in initially negative employee reactions and a “withdrawal” of perceived contributions, before individuals exercise their agency and enact coping strategies to make sense of, and adapt and respond to, these discrepancies. A process of contract “repair” could then occur if the coping actions (termed “remediation effects”) were effective, with individuals returning to positive exchange perceptions. These actions either directly addressed the breach and repaired both it and the psychological contract (termed “remedies”) or involved cognitive reappraisal of the broader work environment and repaired the contract but not the breach (termed “buffers”). The results highlight the unfolding, processual nature of psychological contracting. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.     

基于CE的不同流向下农地城市流转负外部效应研究

发展与保护的权衡是土地资源配置中难以回避的棘手问题。农地城市流转在为城镇化的快速推进提供土地要素的同时,却也在社会、生态方面引起一系列外部性损失,已有研究认为该损失的大小与农地城市流转的用途和周围环境有关,但并未进一步定量揭示其关联程度。鉴于此,本文将农地城市流转的去向归纳为住宅及商服用地、工矿仓储及交通运输用地、公共管理与公共服务用地三类,以武汉市和鄂州市作为研究区域,运用选择实验法(CE)以及多元Logit模型(MNL)识别了受访者对于农地城市流转负外部效应治理方案的偏好,从而间接测度了不同流向下农地城市流转负外部效应的经济总量,以期为实施农地城市流转的用途和规模管制提供依据。结果表明:1不同流向下农地城市流转产生的交通状况恶化、噪音污染、公共设施不足等七种类别负外部效应在类型和强度上有所差异;2绝大多数居民对治理农地城市流转的负外部性具有支付意愿,且在参与程度和参与强度(支付额)方面因农地城市流转的不同流向而有所区别,并且居民的受教育程度和家庭收入水平对选择效用的影响具有显著性且呈正相关关系;3不同流向下农地城市流转所产生的负外部效应的经济总量不容忽视,三种流向的负外部效应从大到小依次为农地流转为工矿仓储及交通运输用地、公共管理与公共服务用地、住宅及商服用地。因此,作为农地城市流转的管制主体,各级政府应当采用经济性管制与社会性管制并举的多样化管制手段对农地城市流转的用途和规模予以调控和管制。     

Blogging about Climate Change in Russia: Activism,Scepticism and Conspiracies

The article explores the new media’s role in climate change communication in Russia. By providing an open space for the expression of very diverse points of view, the internet creates a substitute media reality where both climate activists and climate sceptics can question the established discourse. Analysis of 374 entries published on the LiveJournal blogging platform has resulted in the identification of four discursive categories: “conspiracies of climate change,” “climate change impact,” “political games of climate change” and “online (anti-)environmentalism.” Each category demonstrates how the same topic can be framed in very different ways depending on bloggers’ worldview rather than the nature of the discussed environmental problem. The findings also show that the blogs act as “echo-chambers” for both climate deniers and climate activists reinforcing their behold beliefs. Finally, the analysis discovers some parallels with the traditional media coverage in their minimal critique of Russian state policy on climate.