Theory of storage,inventory and volatility in the LME base metals

The theory of storage, as related to commodities, makes two predictions involving the quantity of the commodity held in inventory. When inventory is low (i.e. a situation of scarcity), spot prices will exceed futures prices, and spot price volatility will exceed futures price volatility. Conversely, during periods of no scarcity, both spot prices and spot price volatility will remain relatively subdued. We test these predictions for the six base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc), and find strong validation for the theory. Including Chinese inventories reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange strengthens the relationship further. We also introduce the concepts of excess volatility, inventory-implied spot price and inventory-implied spot volatility and illustrate some applications.     

Managing Forests for Increased Regional Water Yield in the Southeastern U.S. Coastal Plain

With growing populations fueling increased groundwater abstraction and forecasts of greater water scarcity in the southeastern United States, identifying land management strategies that enhance water availability will be vital to maintaining hydrologic resources and protecting natural systems. Management of forested uplands for lower basal area, currently a priority for habitat improvement on public lands, may also increase water yield through decreased evapotranspiration (ET). To explore this hypothesis, we synthesized studies of precipitation and ET in coastal plain pine stands to develop a statistical model of water yield as a function of management strategy, stand structure, and ecosystem water use. This model allowed us to estimate changes in water yield in response to varying management strategies across spatial scales from the individual stand to a regional watershed. Results suggest that slash pine stands managed at lower basal areas can have up to 64% more cumulative water yield over a 25‐year rotation compared to systems managed for high‐density timber production, with the greatest increases in stands also managed for recurrent understory fire. Although there are important uncertainties in the magnitude of additional water yield and its final destination (i.e., surface water bodies vs. groundwater), this analysis highlights the potential for management activities on public and private timber lands to partially offset increasing demand on surface and groundwater resources.     

Effects of Meteorological Parameters on Air Pollutant Concentrations in Elazig,Turkey

In the present study, air pollutant concentrations have been analyzed statistically with meteorological factors in the city of Elazig, which is located in the east Anatolia region of Turkey, for the months of September, October, November, December, January, February, March, and April during the years 2003 and 2004. SPSS code was used for statistical analyses. The relationship between monitored air pollutant concentrations, such as SO₂ and the total suspended particles (TSP) data, and meteorological factors such as wind speed, temperature, relative humidity and pressure was investigated. According to the results of linear and non-linear regression analysis, it was found that there is a moderate and weak level of relation between the air pollutant concentrations and the meteorological factors in Elazig. The correlation between the previous day's SO₂, TSP concentrations and actual concentrations of these pollutants on that day was investigated and the coefficient of determination R was found to be 0.80 and 0.76, respectively. The statistical models of SO₂ and TSP, including all of the meteorological parameters, gave an R of 0.50 and 0.40, respectively. Further, in order to develop this model, the previous day's SO₂ and TSP concentrations were added to the equations. The new model for SO₂ and TSP was improved considerably with R = 0.85 and 0.80, respectively.     

A COMPUTER SIMULATION PROGRAM FOR OPTIMIZING CONJUNCTIVE OPERATION OF DESALTING PLANTS1

ABSTRACT .Desalting plants can provide a means of firming up erratic natural supplies when properly operated in conjunction with existing water supply reservoir systems. Since the natural inflow is variable, the choice of when to run the desalting plant is difficult. If the plant is turned on too late, a shortage may result; or if the plant runs too long, costly water may be wasted. A computer program is described that can help water planners find an optimal operating rule, i.e., a policy that tells when to turn the plant on and off to meet a given demand. Criteria for defining the firm water yield of the system (with and without desalting) are first defined. The logic of the program is then described. The program, written in FORTRAN IV, successively simulates operation of the given size reservoir-desalting plant system under control of various operating rules and selects the optimal rule as the one which produces the required firm water yield at the least unit cost. The optimal plant size and the staging of construction can also be studied by making a series of computations. Applications of the Operating Rule Program to water systems in California, Utah and New York are described. The studies show that, compared with base load operation, substantial savings are possible if optimum intermittent conjunctive operation of the desalting plant is followed.     

辽宁省境内老哈河流域产沙特征及泥沙供给模式研究

在对辽宁省境内老哈河流域土壤侵蚀研究的基础上,通过计算泥沙迁移时间确定了该流域基于栅格尺度的泥沙输移比的空间分布,最终获得该流域的产沙量,结果表明北部的老官地、哈拉道口、烧锅营子等地以及中南部河流两侧是流域内主要产沙源;选用坡度、植被盖度、土地利用类型、土壤可蚀性、距河流距离、基岩岩性等因子,建立了老哈河流域泥沙供给的数学模型,结果表明流域产沙主要与坡度、距河流距离、土地利用类型和植被盖度密切相关。因此,改变土地利用类型、提高植被盖度是防治流域致灾泥沙的关键因素。本研究对今后老哈河流域土地利用规划及泥沙治理具有一定的指导意义。     

水溶液中嗪草酮的光化学行为研究

以氙灯为光源模拟太阳光,研究了农药嗪草酮(MT)在水溶液中的光降解;探讨了pH值以及天然水体中广泛存在的光敏荆腐殖酸、硝酸根和Fe3+等对嗪草酮间接光解的影响;测量了嗪草酮量子产率及其与活性氧类物种(ROS)·OH和1O2的反应速率常数.结果表明,在pH值3.5-9.5范围内,嗪草酮直接光降解速率随pH值升高而降低.pH=7时,腐殖酸具有光屏蔽作用而抑制嗪草酮光降解,硝酸根和Fe3+对嗪草酮间接光降解基本没有作用.嗪草酮与1O2反应速率常数为0 mol-1·L·s-1,与·OH反应速率常数为5.7×109mol-1Ls-1.在天然水体中嗪草酮与·OH反应最小半衰期为68 h,远远大于北纬40.(40°N)下直接光解半衰期.以上研究结果表明,嗪草酮直接光解占主导作用,其量子产率为0.01.预测在40°N春、夏、秋、冬时嗪草酮直接光解半衰期分别为1.44、1.08、2.58和5.10h,室外太阳光照实验结果显示,在40°N秋季嗪草酮的半衰期为2.98 h,与理论预测值接近.     

十二烷基磺酸钠(SDS)改性蒙脱石对Cu~(2+)、Cd~(2+)的吸附研究

以阴离子表面活性剂(十二烷基磺酸钠,SDS)为改性剂制备了有机蒙脱石,研究其对Cu2+、Cd2+的吸附行为,并用XRD、FTIR、SEM、XPS对有机蒙脱石进行表征.实验结果表明,有机蒙脱石对Cu2+、Cd2+的吸附基本上在20min内达到平衡,并随pH增大(1.0～7.0),吸附量增加,最佳pH约为6.0.有机蒙脱石对Cu2+、Cd2+的吸附等温线更符合Langmuir等温吸附方程,SDS改性蒙脱石对Cu2+、Cd2+的最大吸附量较纯蒙脱石分别增加15.7%、15.5%.XRD、FTIR、SEM、XPS及碳含量分析结果显示,SDS主要分布在蒙脱石表面且相对稳定,少量嵌入层间,有机蒙脱石对Cu2+、Cd2+的吸附机制为配位吸附和离子交换.     

高铁酸钾制备影响因素的实验研究

文章介绍了湿法制备高铁酸钾的工艺,研究了次氯酸盐浓度、氧化反应温度、铁盐原料选择、洗涤所用溶剂种类等对高铁酸钾纯度和产率的影响。实验表明在制备次氯酸盐溶液时用冰水浴反应温度控制为20℃,选用37.5%的KOH溶液,可制得ClO-质量分数为123.5 g/L的饱和次氯酸钾溶液。实验还表明制备高铁酸钾的最佳反应时间为45 min,硝酸铁投加量为化学计量的80%时,可得到纯度为80%～90%、产率为71%的高铁酸钾固体产物。通过实验提出在0℃饱和的氢氧化钾溶液中不断搅拌,高铁酸钾晶体可以充分析出。     

酸化预处理对剩余活性污泥厌氧消化及其脱水性能的影响研究

剩余活性污泥在厌氧消化系统中难以降解,而研究发现预处理能加速其水解的过程。本文研究了盐酸酸化预处理(pH为6～1)对剩余活性污泥后续消化及脱水性能的影响。综合考虑盐酸的投加量和污泥消化性能的改善情况得出最佳工艺参数:酸化至pH为2时,综合效果最佳。此时污泥消化13天的沼气产量相当于未经酸化处理污泥消化21天的沼气产量。在半连续流消化反应试验(35℃,水力停留时间为12天)中,预处理后的污泥产甲烷量较未经预处理的污泥提高了14.3%,同时沙门氏菌全部灭活。脱水实验研究发现,酸化预处理能节约后续污泥脱水过程中40%的阳离子絮凝剂投加量以达到同样的泥饼含固率。     

秸秆还田配施化肥对土壤养分及冬小麦产量的影响

为探究关中地区秸秆还田配施化肥对土壤养分和冬小麦产量的影响,研究采用裂区试验设计,主区为：秸秆不还田（S₀）和秸秆还田（S）;副区为：不施肥（WF）、氮肥（NF）和氮磷肥（NPF）.应用生态化学计量的方法,探究秸秆还田配施化肥下土壤碳氮磷含量变化及其和产量的关系.结果表明,秸秆和施肥互作对表层（0~20 cm）土壤有机碳、全氮和全磷含量均产生显著影响（P<0.05）.与S₀WF处理相比,SNPF处理显著提高表层（0~20 cm）土壤有机碳和全氮含量（P<0.05）.秸秆和年份互作对表层（0~20 cm）土壤全氮含量产生显著影响（P<0.05）,随着秸秆还田时间的增加,在2021年SWF处理下表层（0~20 cm）土壤全氮含量显著高于S₀WF （P<0.05）.秸秆和施肥及其互作对20~40 cm土层有机碳和全氮含量无显著影响（P>0.05）,但对20~40 cm土壤全磷含量产生显著影响（P<0.05）,与SWF处理相比,SNPF处理显著增加了20~40 cm土层全磷含量（P<0.05）.秸秆还田配施化肥对土壤化学计量特征也产生显著影响.与S₀WF处理相比,S₀NPF处理能够降低表层（0~20 cm）土壤C：N,提高表层（0~20 cm）土壤C：P和N：P.与SWF处理相比,SNF处理能够降低表层（0~20 cm）土壤C：N.秸秆还田配施化肥对冬小麦产量也产生显著影响,2020年和2021年SNPF处理与S₀WF处理相比分别增产24.23%和28.9%.相关性分析表明,产量与C：N （P<0.05）和C：P （P<0.01）呈显著正相关关系.全氮和N：P与处理年份呈极显著正相关关系（P<0.001）.综上所述,在关中地区秸秆还田配施氮磷肥处理（SNPF）会改善土壤养分,改变土壤化学计量特征,同时提高产量.因此,本研究结果表明秸秆还田配施氮磷肥（SNPF）是优化区域农田养分管理,提高粮食生产能力的有效途径.