风险分析理论及方法在粮食生产中的应用初探

风险分析是通过对不确定事件的识别、衡量和处理 ,以最小的成本将各种不确定因素引起的损失减少到最低的科学管理办法。论文以风险理论为指导 ,初步探讨了粮食生产中的风险问题 ,并从粮食产量序列入手采用解析概率密度曲线积分的方法 ,着重研究某一粮食生产单元粮食产量序列的波动情况 ,定量地反映该地区粮食生产风险水平的高低状况 ,为发展生产、防灾减灾提供参考。     

青藏高原小麦高产原因的农田生态环境因素探讨

青藏高原小麦高产原因的传统解释认为：高原地区太阳辐射强、温差大、光温配合好，小麦光合作用强度高，呼吸消耗小，有利于更多地积累同化产物。而研究表明：在高产条件下，高原小麦日平均干物质累积速率略低于平原地区。传统观点不能对此作出很好解释。事实上，青藏高原ＣＯ２密度低会严重制约小麦的光合作用；但高原太阳辐射强、群体结构有利，这在一定程度上补偿了ＣＯ２的不足，使得其日平均干物质累积速率仅略低于平原地区。高原年均温低导致小麦的生育期远长于平原地区，因此，单季小麦能够更长时间地利用各种生态条件。略低的干物质累积速率和长得多的生长期决定了青藏高原的干物质单产高于平原地区；收获指数高的小麦在高原获得了创记录的高产。     

基于LMDI模型的中国粮食产量变化及作物构成分解研究

理清1980-2010 年间中国粮食产量变化的作物贡献及其主要贡献因子,为今后农业政策的调整提供决策依据。论文采用对数平均迪氏分解模型(LMDI)开展1980-2010 年间中国粮食产量变化及作物构成分解研究。研究结果表明:①30 a 间中国粮食产量增加了2.26×10⁸ t,粮食播种面积效应和粮食单产效应分别为-0.21×10⁸和2.47×10⁸ t;粮食单产水平提升对粮食增加量的贡献值大,但这一贡献效应的增加量在减弱。②稻谷、小麦和玉米三种作物产量在全国粮食总产量中的比例波动性上升;稻谷单产、小麦单产、玉米单产,以及玉米播种面积的增产效应最为明显,是驱动全国粮食产量增加的主要因素。③地区贡献以黑龙江和河南最为突出,累积贡献率约占1/3,省域粮食生产“北进中移”的趋势明显;各省域粮食产量的贡献因素差异显著,大豆、薯类和其他作物对粮食总产量变化的贡献较小。建议实施差别化的粮食生产政策,在继续提高粮食单产的同时稳定粮食播种面积,确保国家粮食安全。     

基于格局和过程的流域生态系统减轻入库泥沙服务及价值-以雅砻江二滩水库为例

基于径流泥沙的运移过程,构建了沿汇流路径,结合不同土地覆被对泥沙拦截能力系数模拟每个像元截留泥沙使其不进入水库量的模型.结合单位体积淤泥的清淤费用、水库使用年限及贴现率进行构建价值量模型,并在二滩水库的集水区进行了模型的运用.结果表明:2000~2005 年,土地覆被格局的变化主要体现在雅砻江中上游草地向林地的转化和下游亲水区林地向农田和草地的转化.由此影响到2000和2005年土壤侵蚀总量变化不大,但2005年集水区向水库输沙总量有较大增加,农田也成为二滩水库最为主要的产沙源.多数被侵蚀的土壤在向二滩水库的运移过程中被各类生态系统截留,截留泥沙量的高值集中分布于二滩库区周边.林地平均截留泥沙绝对量较低,截留泥沙的能力未能得到有效发挥.集水区对于减轻进入二滩水库泥沙服务的总经济价值在2000和2005年分别达到442.2和785.8亿元.     

宁夏天然草场产量与气候因子关系及人工草地产量估算

本文利用了宁夏地区草场产量资料,分析了它与气候因子的关系,结果表明水分是制约产量变化的主导因子。又结合本区实际情况,将文献[1]计算苜蓿作物干物质产量经验系数(K=0.9)修正为1.2,而后计算了充分灌溉和靠天然降水条件下两类耕地的牧草最大产量,这些研究结果,为本区畜牧业生产建设和规划提供了科学依据。     

气候变化背景下“气候产量”计算方法的探讨

气候变化对于粮食安全的影响已成为全球变化研究的热点问题之一。在研究过去几十年尺度上的气候变化对粮食产量影响的程度时,常规的研究方法是利用实际产量的数据拟合出以时间为变量的趋势产量,实际产量与趋势产量的差值即为气候产量。但这种方法在评估气候变暖对粮食产量的影响时存在一定缺陷。在常规算法的基础上,论文提出一种改进算法,即通过选取基准时段,建立反映气候要素与作物单产关系的函数表达式,来估计非基准时段内的气候产量,这种方法主要适用于气候要素存在趋势性变化的时段。以黑龙江省为例,将改进算法和常规算法进行比较,结果显示应用改进算法得到的气候产量更能真实地反映气候变暖对水稻产量的影响。     

Evaluation of a respirometric test method to determine the heterotrophic yield coefficient of activated sludge bacteria

The heterotrophic yield coefficient of activated sludge bacteria is an important parameter in the field of wastewater degradation kinetics and the determination of degradation kinetics of defined chemicals. With the help of easily biodegradable organic compounds like glucose and acetate the respiration kinetics of degrading activated sludge bacteria was studied. The results of the respiration analysis were transformed to examine the degradation and respiration kinetics of municipal wastewaters at different food to microorganism ratios (F/M ratios). It was proved that the heterotrophic yield coefficient of aerobically degrading activated sludge bacteria could reliably be determined and that the heterotrophic yield coefficient was independent of the F/M ratio over a wide range.     

Effects of air pollution on rice yield in the Pakistan Punjab

A study using open-top chambers ventilated with ambient or charcoal filtered air in the vicinity of Lahore, Pakistan demonstrated reductions of 42% and 37% in the grain yield of two cultivars of rice (Oryza sativa L.). This yield reduction was primarily due to the reduction in mean panicle number per plant, although significant effects of filtration on 1000 grain weight and the number of filled grains per panicle were also detected. The 6-h daily mean O(3) concentrations were only 10-20 nl litre(-1) during the monsoon season, but increased to 30-55 nl litre(-1) later in the growing season, while the mean NO(2) concentration during the experiment was 12 nl litre(-1). On the basis of experience in North America and Japan, the reductions in yield in the present study are substantially greater than might be predicted. The reasons for this discrepancy are discussed, together with the implications for effects on rice yield in other regions of south and south-east Asia.     

Impact of industrial effluent on growth and yield of rice (Oryza sativa L.) in silty clay loam soil

Degradation of soil and water from discharge of untreated industrial effluent is alarming in Bangladesh. Therefore, buildup of heavy metals in soil from contaminated effluent, their entry into the food chain and effects on rice yield were quantified in a pot experiment. The treatments were comprised of 0, 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% industrial effluents applied as irrigation water. Effluents, initial soil, different parts of rice plants and post-harvest pot soil were analyzed for various elements, including heavy metals. Application of elevated levels of effluent contributed to increased heavy metals in pot soils and rice roots due to translocation effects, which were transferred to rice straw and grain. The results indicated that heavy metal toxicity may develop in soil because of contaminated effluent application. Heavy metals are not biodegradable, rather they accumulate in soils, and transfer of these metals from effluent to soil and plant cells was found to reduce the growth and development of rice plants and thereby contributed to lower yield. Moreover, a higher concentration of effluent caused heavy metal toxicity as well as reduction of growth and yield of rice, and in the long run a more aggravated situation may threaten human lives, which emphasizes the obligatory adoption of effluent treatment before its release to the environment, and regular monitoring by government agencies needs to be ensured.     

不同类型地膜覆盖对土壤质量、根系生长和产量的影响

针对我国农业生产中地膜大规模使用带来的土壤环境污染问题,通过应用降解地膜进行大田试验,以南瓜为研究试材,探究了黑色普通地膜(CK)、白色降解地膜(WDF)、黑色降解地膜(BDF)和黑色CO₂基降解地膜(C-DF)对土壤理化性质、根系生长与产量的影响,并对土壤质量进行评估.结果表明,3种降解地膜处理土壤含水量和温度,较普通地膜均不同程度降低;各处理间土壤有机质含量无显著差异;C-DF处理土壤速效钾含量较CK降低,WDF和BDF无显著影响;BDF和C-DF处理土壤全氮和速效氮含量较CK和WDF降低,处理间差异达到显著水平.3种降解膜处理土壤过氧化氢酶活性较CK显著提升2.9%～6.8%,蔗糖酶较CK显著降低了33.3%～38.4%.BDF处理土壤纤维素酶活性较CK显著提升63.8%,WDF和C-DF无显著影响.3种降解膜处理对地下部根系生长具有促进作用,长势明显增强.BDF和C-DF处理南瓜产量与CK趋近,BDF处理南瓜产量较CK显著降低11.4%.试验结果表明,BDF和C-DF处理对土壤质量和产量的影响与CK相当.研究认为2种黑色的降解地膜在高温生产季节可有效替代普...