底墒对小麦根冠生长及土壤水分利用的影响

在中国气象局固城农业气象试验基地大型水分试验场,进行了不同底墒处理对冬小麦根冠生长发育、产量构成因子和土壤水分利用影响的试验,不同底墒处理对应的播种时的土壤相对湿度分别为:>80％,75％～80％,70％～75％,65％～70％和<65％。结果表明:底墒对冬小麦的根、茎、叶等有不同程度的影响,其中对根的影响尤为显著。充足的底墒能够促进根系对土壤水分和养分的吸收,提高土壤水分利用率,使收获时土壤残留水分减少,扩充了土壤水库的库容,使其能够在汛期到来时,接纳蓄存更多的降水,充分发挥土壤水库的调控功能。叶的生长发育与底墒之间也存在明显的相关关系,底墒与叶面积指数存在着显著的幂函数关系;底墒对总穗数、穗粒数、千粒重和地上总干物重等有显著影响,小麦的穗粒重和底墒有显著的二次曲线(抛物线)关系,由此求得最佳底墒为85.37％(占田间持水量百分比)。     

A COMPARISON OF SURFACE RUNOFF AND SEDIMENT YIELDS FROM LOW- AND HIGH-SEVERITY SITE PREPARATION BURNS1

ABSTRACI:. Slash burning is a common site preparation technique used after timber harvest throughout the Southeastern United States. Little quantitative information exists on the hydrologic response to burn severity. This study compared the effects of low-severity and high-severity burns on runoff and sediment yields during rainfall simulation and during natural rainfall in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Fire severity was largely determined by moisture conditions of the forest floor prior to ignition. Runoff and sediment yield variability was high between plots within the same treatment area due to differences in forest floor characteristics and infiltration rates. Conditions of high-severity resulted when burning was conducted with relatively dry fuels. Sediment yields were 40-times greater for the high-severity treatment areas than the low-severity treatment areas.     

Physical characteristics of conditioned anaerobic digested sludge - A fractal,transient and dynamic rheological viewpoint

The changes in the physical characteristics of unconditioned and conditioned anaerobic digested sludge (ADS) biosolids,such as capillary suction time (CST),yield stress,average size and fractal dimensions,were investigated through a CST test,transient and dynamic rheological test and image analysis.The results showed that the optimum polymer dose range was observed when CST or its reciprocal value was employed as an indicator.There were good correlations between the yield stresses determined from both a controlled shear stress test and a strain amplitude sweep test.The yield stress and storage modulus (G') increased as the polymer dose increased in most cases.A frequency sweep test revealed that polymer conditioning could extend the frequency sweep ranges for their elastic behaviors over viscous behaviors as well as the gel-like structure in the linear viscoelastic range.These results implied that more deformation energy was stored in this rigid structure,and that elastic behavior became increasingly dominant with the addition of the polymer in most cases.In addition,both the average sizes and two-dimensional fractal dimensions for conditioned ADS biosolids presented a similar up-climax-down variation trend as the polymer doses increased,whereas the critical polymer doses at the highest average sizes or two-dimensional fractal dimensions,were different.Correlation analysis revealed that the conditioned ADS dewaterability was not correlated with the yield stresses,while the average sizes or the two-dimensional fractal dimensions for conditioned ADS biosolids could be taken as the indication parameters for ADS dewaterability.     

黄土高原侵蚀产沙与高含沙水流空间分异对比分析

论文研究了黄土高原侵蚀产沙、高含沙水流的空间分布特征,并对比分析了两者空间分布的异同。结果表明:黄土高原高含沙水流高发区、侵蚀产沙高值区呈带状分布,大致为东北—西南向,带状区域中包括三个高峰区;黄土高原降雨量、NDVI等值线的空间分布方向与侵蚀产沙带及高含沙水流高发区延伸方向平行,侵蚀产沙带及高含沙水流高发区基本位于200~600 mm降雨量及NDVI值为0.15~0.25范围内,当降雨量达到400 mm及NDVI为0.17时侵蚀产沙达到峰值,而当降雨量为400 mm及NDVI为0.2时,高含沙水流达到峰值;影响因素对侵蚀产沙、高含沙水流发生的作用规律的一致性,决定了黄土高原侵蚀产沙与高含沙水流分布的相似性,而侵蚀产沙、高含沙水流对影响因素响应程度的差异,是两者空间分布差异的重要原因。     

单产提升潜力衰减模型法在河南粮食单产中长期预测中的应用研究

粮食单产水平的提高是河南粮食增产的主要原因,准确预测粮食单产水平,对科学判断河南粮食生产能力、制定粮食生产战略意义重大。论文针对目前直接以单产为变量建立的预测模型未能反映出单产增长的有限性和增速的减缓性之不足,研究提出了一种基于单产提升潜力衰减过程的单产预测方法。该方法利用河南耕地的平均单产潜力和历年实际单产数据,计算得到河南历年单产可提升潜力值;依据单产提升潜力理论上呈逐渐衰减之变化特点,可采用指数衰减函数建立单产提升潜力回归模型,以达到间接预测单产之目的。结果表明：1）单产提升潜力对数值与时间t之间具有高度负线性相关关系,适宜建立指数回归模型;2）回归模型V_q-V_t=e^{-0.009 5t+9.464 7}拟合优度R²=0.973 1,在0.01置信水平上回归显著;3）预测模型反映出了单产提升潜力的有限性和衰减性,即单产潜力对单产水平的限制性,模型理论诠释清晰;4）利用河南1978—2000年的单产数据作为样本建立预测模型,用样本以外2001—2015年的实际单产作为观测值,对预测单产进行模型预测检验,结果表明该模型预测单产绝对误差均值为129.15 kg/hm²,仅为现有方法的0.17~0.82倍,且误差平稳,适宜于单产中长期预测;5）预测得河南2020、2025、2030年的平均单产分别为6 375、6 765、7 155 kg/hm²,年均增幅为85.20~74.55 kg/hm²,增速呈逐渐减缓趋势。     

Anaerobic treatment of fresh leachate from a municipal solid waste incinerator by upflow blanket filter reactor

This paper describes the feasibility of fresh leachate treatment by an upflow blanket filter (UBF). Through dilution and partial effluent recycling, the organic loading rates increased from 0.51 to 14.56 kg COD/(m³·d), meanwhile the corresponding hydraulic retention time decreased from 9.0 to 3.6 d. The reactor was able to achieve steady-state within 80 d. Based on the distribution of COD fluxes in the process, it was concluded that anabolism was the main pathway of COD removal in the initial phase (1–33 d), accounting for 57%–85% of total COD removed. As the anaerobic consortium of bacteria reached steady-state (after 70–86 d), the majority of COD removed was transformed into methane, because the specific methane yield was close to the theoretical value (0.36 L CH₄/(g COD_deg)).     

黄土区薄层浮土道路侵蚀试验研究

为研究降雨强度和坡度对黄土区薄层浮土覆盖的土质道路产流产沙的影响,在野外调查的基础上,通过室内模拟降雨试验研究不同雨强(1.0、1.5、2.0、2.5 mm/min)和坡度(2°、4°、8°、16°)条件下0.5 cm厚度浮土道路径流和产沙特征。结果表明:1)相同坡度条件下,平均径流率随雨强增大呈递增趋势,其变化范围在0.80~2.73 L/min,且1.5~2.5 mm/min雨强条件下平均径流率是1.0 mm/min的1.34~3.04倍,各雨强条件下浮土侵蚀阶段产流量占比范围在5.22%~40.38%;2)次降雨平均含沙量随坡度和雨强的增大均呈递增趋势,其变化范围在11.75~194.25 g/L,且与坡度和雨强分别呈显著线性和指数函数关系(P<0.05),1.0~2.5 mm/min雨强下浮土侵蚀阶段产沙量占比为0.05%~71.51%,其占比随雨强和坡度的增大存在波动,且混合侵蚀阶段产沙量与坡度和雨强呈良好的线性关系(P<0.01);3)累计产沙量随累计产流量的增大而增大且满足线性函数关系,决定系数均在0.96以上。研究结果揭示了薄层浮土道路径流侵蚀规律,可为土质道路治理及道路侵蚀模型建立提供参考。     

A conceptual framework for Jatropha seed yield estimation using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) modelling

Jatropha seed yield prediction is one of the most important influencing factors for developing a supply chain modelling of Jatropha seed. The oil from this Jatropha seed is used to blend with diesel to obtain biofuel (Hiromi, Yamamoto, Junichi Fujino, and Kenji Yamaji. 2001. “Evaluation of Bioenergy Potential with a Multi-regional Global-Land-Use-and-Energy Model.” Biomass and Bioenergy 21: 185–203). The Jatropha plant is easy to cultivate and produces high yield if properly maintained. The main focus of this study is to utilize uncultivable wastelands for cultivating Jatropha seeds. As suggested by Liu et al. (Liu, Xiaohong, David B. Grant, Alan C. McKinnon, and Yuanhua Feng. 2010. “An Empirical Examination of the Contribution of Capabilities to the Competitiveness of Logistics Service Providers: A Perspective from China.” International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management 40 (10): 847–866), the effectiveness of prediction affects the functional characteristics of a supply chain network design. The yield prediction of Jatropha seeds has two important roles which include (i) the identification of external parameters that affects the yield and (ii) the detection of internal attributes that changes the growth characteristics of the Jatropha plant. The development of the fuzzy inference system is characterized by a large number of input variables (Dobrila Petrovic. 2001. International Journal of Production Economics 71: 429–438). A Matlab programming software was used to integrate an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. This approach gave the numerical as well as graphical output that was used to interpret the final result. The root mean square error values were identified for the given inputs which were then compared with the trained input variables to select the best input among the given alternative variables.     

江西省气候变化的特征及其对水稻产量的贡献——基于“气候-经济”模型

采用气候倾向率和M-K突变检验,分析1951~2012年江西省气候和温度的变化趋势和突变特征;构建"气候-经济"新模型,研究气候因子对水稻产量的影响,最后借助BP神经网络模型预测未来10a气候因子对水稻产量的贡献。结果表明:过去60多年来气温平均每10a升高0.172℃,而降水的线性倾向不显著;气温突变开始的时间约为1997年,降水的突变趋势不明显;不同阶段气候因素的贡献率及作用方向存在差异,1978~1997年气候因子贡献率为5.97%,其中温度和降水贡献率分别为1.51%、4.46%。1998~2013年气候因子贡献率为8.98%,温度和降水贡献率分别为4.63%、4.35%。物质要素在不同阶段的贡献率均为70%以上,其中播种面积和化肥的影响程度较大;未来10a气温对江西水稻产量的贡献为1.48,降水量对水稻产量的贡献为2.22。     

长江中下游冬小麦春季湿渍害灾损风险评估

春季湿渍害对南方冬小麦生长发育和产量形成影响很大。选取能较好反映冬小麦湿渍害特征的降雨量、日照和作物需水量构建湿渍害气象判别指数,从春季湿渍害产量实际损失的角度,对受灾频率、因灾减产频率、产量损失风险强度进行分析,基于减产频率和产量灾损风险强度建立风险评估模型,并依据风险值大小进行分区。结果表明:沿江江南地区冬小麦春季湿渍害受灾频率最高,为风险高值区,约占全区台站27%;风险中值区范围较大,约占47%,分布在江淮东部、淮北大部、江汉平原以及鄂东南地区;低风险区约占全区16%,主要分布在湖北北部和淮北局部地区。