粮食产量预测理论、方法与应用Ⅲ.粮食生产潜力中、长期预测理论、模型及其应用

粮食生产潜力中、长期预测的目的是为国家中、长期粮食生产规划提供科学依据。粮食生产潜力中、长期预测的“双向预测理论”：从若干个预测模型中选择出2个模型,一个模型预测的未来产量是持续增加的,体现产量持续增加的科技进步力量;另一个模型预测的未来产量是先增加后减少或持续减少的,体现影响产量持续增加的负面综合因素力量。应用结果表明：模型可预测未来1~10年的粮食生产潜力,平均预测误差在5％以内。大量案例证明粮食生产潜力中、长期预测的“双向预测理论”是科学的、方法是通用的、结果是实用的。     

影响硫磺回收装置硫回收率的主要因素

从工艺、催化剂及设备等几方面影响硫磺回收率的主要因素进行了总结，目的是为硫横回收装置的操作者提供一对照检查表并对照检查自己存原实际问题，找出降低硫回收率的主要原因并加以解决，从而减少环境污染。     

The contribution of dry deposited ammonia and sulphur dioxide to the composition of precipitation from continuously open gauges

A series of experiments using bulk precipitation collectors of the type used in the UK precipitation chemistry network measured the amounts of NH₄⁺, SO₄²⁻ and other ions that could be washed from funnels (diameter 15 cm) exposed to a wide range of NH₃ and SO₂ concentrations over periods from hours to days. In dry conditions, the average deposition flux of NH₃ was between 50 and 120 nmol NH₄⁺ funnel⁻¹ d⁻¹ (0.1–0.3 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), and was independent of the concentration of NH₃. Dry deposition of NH₃ to wet funnels at small NH₃ concentrations was almost 5 times that to dry funnels under the same conditions (average 240 nmol funnel⁻¹ d⁻¹; 0.7 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), and increased with increasing NH₃ concentrations. The amount of NH₄⁺ ions remaining on the funnel surface was inversely proportional to the vapour pressure deficit during the experiment. This result was interpreted as a dependence on the duration of surface wetness, with greater deposition of NH₄⁺ when evaporation rates of surface water were small.The amount of SO₂ deposited on funnel surfaces was closely related to the amount of NH₃ deposited, in both wet and dry conditions, but was not strongly correlated with the SO₂ concentration. At low NH₃ and SO₂ concentrations the average deposition to dry funnels was 70 nmol SO₄²⁻ funnel⁻¹ d⁻¹ (0.5 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), and to wet funnels was approximately 2.5 times larger. The results are interpreted in terms of the balance between the rate of evaporation of surface water, and the rate of oxidation of SO₂, which leads to the ‘fixing’ of NH₄⁺ ions on the surface as involatile salts.It is predicted that dry deposition of NH₃ to funnel surfaces across the UK Secondary Network could account for as much as one-half of the measured bulk wet deposition at sites where wet deposition of NH₄–N is small. The amount of dry deposition depends on how long and how often funnel surfaces are wetted by rain or dew, and on the air concentrations of NH₃. These predictions are based on funnels being wetted only once per day. More frequent wetting would increase the contribution from dry deposition, and the consequent overestimate of wet deposition of NH₄–N across the UK by using data obtained from bulk collectors. To some extent this overestimate may be offset by microbial degradation and loss of NH₄–N in weekly bulk precipitation samples during collection and storage.     

Is the convenience yield a good indicator of a commodity's supply risk?

A strong increase in the demand for some commodities over the last decade will have a major impact on their future supply situation. Of increasing importance, therefore, is an assessment of a commodity's criticality, and especially its supply risk, by appropriate indicators. The literature has proposed numerous indicators of the supply risk. Here, we use the convenience yield of commodity futures as a supply risk indicator to address some of the major shortcomings of existing indicators, especially regarding their predictive power. This paper aims to test the applicability of the convenience yield as an indicator of a commodity's future supply risk. Therefore, we calculate historical convenience yields for 3-, 15-, and 27-month futures contracts for five major industrial metals (aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc) during the period 1999 to 2011. We compare the convenience yields at the beginning of the contract period to known indicators at maturity to find that the convenience yield has generally predictive power for the static stock lifetime (i.e., inventory volume/turnover) and future spot prices. Furthermore, we find that, with some restrictions, the convenience yield is an applicable indicator of a commodity's supply risk.     

生物流化床处理生活污水的动力学研究

本研究采用颗粒活性炭（Granule Activated Carbon,GAC）为填料,考察了生物流化床（Biological fluidized Bed,BFB）处理生活污水的动力学.研究结果表明,GAC-BFB内生物膜的表现产率YoA为2.3057gVSS/gCOD,微生物细胞衰减常数Kd为0.3056d-1;基质降解动力学中米氏常数Ks为0.2182mg/L,反应速率常数K为13.09 mg/（l·h）.GAC-BFB的微生物生长动力学拟合方程为1/θc=2.3057q-0.3056,R2=0.9549; GAC-BFB的基质降解动力学拟合方程为1/U =0.2182＊1/S ＋0.0764,R2 =0.9972,该微生物生长动力学拟合方程及基质降解动力学拟合方程能较好的反映GAC-BFB系统的出水水质状况,本研究所获得的动力学关系和动力学参数可作为GAC-BFB系统的设计依据.     

The relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillations and cereal production in Sahel

The effect of drought on crop yield and water resources has been an important socio-economic concern in the Sahel region of Africa. The most severe droughts in the Sahel region occurred during the strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. There is thus increased need to understand the stochastic relationship between such physical mechanism like ENSO and crop yield. In this paper, such a relationship is investigated using a wavelet approach. Our result shows that a statistically significant relationship exists between ENSO and cereal production in the region. In particular, El Niño events are devastation to millet yield with little or no impact on maize and sorghum production. This can be attributed to the lower length of growing period for maize and sorghum compared to millet. On the other hand La Niña events favor cereal production and mirrored sorghum yield during the La Niña years of 1973–1976. The potential value of ENSO-based rainfall forecast and socio-economic impact on local population in Sahel region are discussed.     

Impact of maximum sustainable yield on independent populations

We investigate a community of independent logistically growing populations under a common harvesting effort which leads to the total maximum sustainable yield (TMSY). It is surprising that in the case of two populations with approximately equal carrying capacities, TMSY is reached while both populations persist, although their biotic potential may differ substantially. In general, however, TMSY with a common harvesting effort implies suboptimal fishing of some populations, overfishing of others and extinction of the rest of the populations. Since extinction of populations is a rule rather than an exception and since a community of independent populations is more robust than an ecosystem with multiple trophic levels, we call for urgent retraction of all legal documents advocating MSY in ecosystems.     

基于农用地分等成果的产能核算——以湖南、河南、黑龙江为例

研究目的:分析农用地质量与粮食生产能力之间的关系。研究方法:主要应用样点的标准粮产量与土地利用等别指数进行回归分析,根据回归分析所得的线性关系推算出3省的粮食总产量。研究结论:通过农用地分等成果进行产能核算具有一定的科学性,可在已经进行农用地分等的省份进行推广应用。     

基于DEA模型的我国东部地区SO_2有效削减比率研究

"十一五"规划纲要中明确提出了主要污染物排放总量减少10%的战略目标,合理进行SO2削减是实现这一目标的基础。运用基于生产前沿的DEA模型计算了我国东部地区11个省、直辖市1990到2007年18年间的SO2有效削减百分比。计算结果显示,经济越发达、产业结构越优化的地区,该值越小。1990~2007年间的平均SO2有效削减百分比上海、广东、福建、海南最小,一直为0。北京、天津、浙江、江苏较低,平均SO2有效削减百分比分别为13.83%、15.31%、18.36%、21.14%,而河北、山东最高,分别为39.81%、32.00%,应该加强这些地区的SO2削减,采取措施提高SO2排放效率。     

臭氧污染胁迫对农作物生长与产量的影响

对国内外近地层大气的臭氧污染现状进行讨论，综述臭氧对农作物生长的影响。作物受O3伤害最典型的症状为叶片上散布棕色或黄褐色的细密点状斑、坏死斑。在O3的胁迫下，作物呼吸作用增强，光合作用受抑制。O3对叶片膜保护系统、气孔开度、氮代谢、糖类、脂类和其它物质的代谢也有影响。O3对农作物产生危害的同时，也往往导致农作物产量下降。