可持续发展定量研究的几种新方法评介

可持续发展衡量的指标体系及其评价方法和模型研究是可持续发展研究的重要内容,它可以为政府的可持续发展决策提供重要的科学依据和优先考虑的问题,还可以为公众提供可持续发展的有效信息。在分析国际上和国内衡量可持续发展的指标体系的基础上,本文介绍了９０年代中期以来国际上提出的几种新的、有代表性的基于货币化估值的指标体系和以具体生物物理衡量的指标体系,并系统分析比较了它们的优特点。     

Supporting climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessments in the Asia-Pacific region: an example of sustainability science

Sustainability is achieved only when there is full reconciliation between: (1) economic development; (2) meeting, on an equitable basis, growing and changing human needs and aspirations; and (3) conserving the limited natural resources and the capacity of the environment to absorb the mulitple stresses that are a consequence of human activities. The linkages between climate and sustainability are examined in the context of both the wider Asia-Pacific region and local level climate risks and adaptation responses. These findings are used to underpin and illustrate several implications for sustainability science. Climate change is seen as both an impediment to increasing sustainability and as an opportunity, though in most cases the former far outweighs the latter. Assessments of climate change vulnerability and risk are shown to be of critical importance because they inform decisions as to where resources for adaptation are best invested. They also show whether global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions need to be strengthened because of limits to adaptation. In practice, adaptation takes place at many levels, essentially ranging between tangible interventions at community and enterprise level and national and international efforts to strengthen the enabling environment for adaptation. It is informative to undertake regional assessments of adaptation, even though most adaptation interventions need to reflect local conditions, including local adaptive capacities. The foregoing findings, based in part on a series of regional and local case studies, lead to several recommendations for further research that will help reduce barriers to implementing responses that reduce climate related risks, including adverse consequences for sustainability. The recommendations relate to such themes as making optimum use of predictive capabilities, characterising the linkages between climate change and sustainability, implications of the required rates and magnitudes of adaptation, institutional responses that enhance adaptive capacity, use of new and traditional technologies, the multiple dimensions of social responsibility, and enhancing the enabling environment for adaptation at the community and enterprise level. If these recommendations are acted upon they will, in turn, help address much needed improvements in quantifying the costs and benefits of adaptation, prioritising adaptation options, assessing sustainable development tradeoffs, and monitoring the success of adaptation initiatives. Such improvements will have even greater utility if they are incorporated into user-friendly decision support tools for adaptation.     

THEORY,DEVELOPMENT, AND UTILIZATION POTENTIAL OF THE BIOMILIEU CONCEPT1

The paper presents a quantitative engineering approach to analysis of total environment allowing for simultaneous consideration of a theoretically infinite number of quality indicators and physiological requirements. It discusses theory and fundamentals of a two-dimensional space and time function solution concerning a small estuarine-type environment. A three dimensional solution is indicated. Input data may range from reconnaissance-type to the outputs of mathematical transport models. Applications are discussed with respect to environmental quality problems, availability of suitable data, and some areas of research where results could find immediate application.     

SUITABILITY ANALYSIS FOR SELECTION OF PIPELINE ROUTES1

ABSTRACT: A brief review of environmental assessment methods is presented as an introduction to a study of environmental management problems in a coastal area of southern Louisiana. The assessment method used in the study is called suitability analysis and involves the use of matrices. The matrix approach is simply a convenient method for organizing all factors representing environmental concerns in a region. The matrices proved to be very useful in defining the present state of an environmental regime and in maintaining an inventory of regional features and potential impacts. The method is described in detail and illustrated by evaluating the potential impacts of a major pipeline construction job in the area. Of major concern is the potential impact on the water resources of the region. Disruption to the natural drainage could be detremental, and affect the suitability of available water for a given use. Limitations of the method are discussed and potential areas for improvement and research are noted. Coupled with an economic assessment, the suitability analysis method should prove beneficial for selecting development sites for industries, residential areas, and other construction activities.     

The development and applications of a Drought Early Warning System in Botswana*

This article describes the indicators and data sources used by the Botswana Drought Early Warning System formally established in early 1984, the main uses of the indicators in the assessment of drought conditions and the design of relief programmes are outlined. Limitations of the sources of data available are discussed, as is the feasibility of adding some possible further indicators. In conclusion, the importance of a functioning Early Warning System in a country highly susceptible to repeated droughts is stressed, in the context of die current effort to elaborate a comprehensive National Food Strategy and to establish a Regional Early Warning System for Southern Africa.     

综合集成的数字流域水资源环境监测评价指标体系研究

基于3S技术的综合集成的数字流域水资源环境监测评价可以获取传统监测手段所无法取得的更多信息,已成为目前国内外水资源环境监测评价的重要技术手段。本文提出了基于3S技术与传统监测手段综合集成的数字流域水资源环境监测评价信息处理基本模式,对数字流域水资源环境监测评价指标体系建立的理论基础、基本原则进行了探讨,以西北干旱区内陆河流域石羊河为例,建立了石羊河流域水资源环境监测评价指标体系。在水资源环境监测评价信息系统的开发中,提出指标库管理的思想,基于COM技术,用VC++6.0为开发工具,初步实现了石羊河流域水资源环境监测评价信息系统。     

Seabirds as Indicators of Changes in Marine Ecosystems: Ecological Monitoring on Machias Seal Island

Changes in marine ecosystems can be manifested in many different ways, on different temporal and spatial scales. Seabirds are top consumers in marine foodwebs and offer opportunities to detect and assess the biological effects of changes in physical parameters (sea-surface temperature [SST], salinity, depth of thermocline etc.) of the marine ecosystem. We compare six-eight years' of data on the biology (diet, and breeding success) of four species of seabird (arctic tern Sterna paradisaeaand common tern S. hirundo, which feed at the sea surface; and Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica and razorbill Alca torda, which dive 30–60 m for their prey) breeding on Machias Seal Island (MSI) in the Bay of Fundy with both our own meteorological and oceanographic measurements, and with standard measurements from conventional sources. These are compared with fisheries data on changes in the main prey of all the seabirds concerned (juvenile or 0-group herring Clupea harengus) which are the most direct link between the seabirds and the physical properties of the marine system. We explore relationships between seabird productivity and diet, and other aspects of both herring biology (larval surveys, and fat content) and oceanography (SST data from the island, and remotely sensed data from the entrance to the Bay of Fundy). Timing of laying by puffins followed SST variation at neither the local (MSI) nor regional scales, but at the scale of the North Atlantic, following the trend of populations breeding off northern Norway. The proportion of herring in the diet of terns over 6 years varied inversely with herring larval abundance the previous fall; this relationship was not statistically significant in the puffin and razorbill. A major new finding is the considerable (50%) inter-annual variation in the energy density (fat content) of juvenile herring that are the main seabird prey; breeding success of both species of tern varied in parallel with the energy density of juvenile herring in the diet until the last two years of the study, when sandlance (Ammodytes sp.) and euphausid shrimp predominated in the diet. Our long-term research approach combines traditional population monitoring (of numbers of breeding birds) with demographic, behavioural and environmental monitoring, to provide new understanding of the marine ecosystem as well as of seabirds.     

Ecological Monitoring for Assessing the State of the Nearshore and Open Waters of the Great Lakes

The Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement stipulates that the Governments of Canada and the United States are responsible for restoring and maintaining the chemical, physical and biological integrity of the waters of the Great Lakes Basin Ecosystem. Due to varying mandates and areas of expertise, monitoring to assess progress towards this objective is conducted by a multitude of Canadian and U.S. federal and provincial/state agencies, in cooperation with academia and regional authorities. This paper highlights selected long-term monitoring programs and discusses a number of documented ecological changes that indicate the present state of the open and nearshore waters of the Great Lakes.     

Biological Indicators of Marine Environmental Health: Meiofauna – A Neglected Benthic Component?

This paper considers the use of meiofauna (benthic metazoa 45 to 500 m in size) as biological indicators for monitoring marine environmental health. To date, this abundant and ubiquitous group of invertebrates has been largely neglected in applied sampling programmes; instead, emphasis has been placed upon more conspicuous biological components such as seagrass, macrofauna and epiphytes. In an attempt to redress this balance, this paper sets out three objectives: (1) to explain the reasons for selecting biological response indicators from across the whole spectrum of phylogenetic organisation, (2) to summarise those aspects of meiofaunal life-history and demography that render this group suitable for monitoring anthropogenic pollution and disturbance, (3) to suggest how to optimise the inclusion of meiofauna in monitoring programmes so that they provide maximum information for management purposes. To achieve these objectives the environmental impact assessment framework of Ward and Jacoby (1992) is adopted as a matrix into which the relevant components of meiofaunal ecology are fitted. Using this matrix, meiofauna are shown to have advantages that include their sessile habit, high species diversity, short generation time, direct benthic development and ubiquitous distribution. Disadvantages include their small size, high level of spatial and temporal variability, the potential cost of sample processing and the limited taxonomic literature accessible to non-specialist workers. The paper concludes with a discussion of sampling strategies and methods of analysis that may be used to efficiently incorporate meiofauna as biological response indices into environmental monitoring. Emphasis is placed on cost-effective techniques such as taxonomic minimalism.     

水污染源氨氮自动监测设备比对试验考核指标探讨

对15家氨氮自动监测设备比对试验考核不合格的污水厂及印染厂的考核情况进行了分析，发现目前水污染源氨氮自动监测设备比对试验考核指标存在一些问题。结合水污染源在线监测系统运行与考核技术规范以及地表水自动监测技术规范，提出了水污染源氨氮自动监测系统按照不同排放浓度实施不同比对试验考核指标的建议。