On modelling the global copper mining rates,market supply,copper price and the end of copper reserves

The world supply and turnover of copper was modelled using simple empirical estimates and a COPPER systems dynamics model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, population dynamics, use in society and waste as well as recycling, into a whole world system. The degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using four different methods including (1) burn-off rates, (2) peak discovery early warning, (3) Hubbert's production model, and (4) COPPER, a system dynamics model. The ultimately recoverable reserves (URR) have been estimated using different sources that converge around 2800 million tonne, where about 800 million tonne have already been mined, and 2000 million tonne remain. The different methods independently suggest peak copper mine production in the near future. The model was run for a longer period to cover all systems dynamics and delays. The peak production estimates are in a narrow window in time, from 2031 to 2042, with the best model estimate in 2034, or 21 years from the date of writing. In a longer perspective, taking into account price and recycling, the supply of copper to society is estimated to run out sometime after 2400. The outputs from all models put focus on the importance of copper recycling so that society can become more sustainable with respect to copper supply.     

基于理想参照系和关键指标的自然保护区生态系统质量评估——以额尔古纳、辉河和锡林郭勒国家级自然保护区为例

为了增强自然保护区内和保护区间的生态系统质量评估结果的可比性,基于“理想参照系和关键指标”的理念,提出量化关键指标阈值和生态系统质量的算法,并以额尔古纳、辉河和锡林郭勒国家级自然保护区为例开展具体的评估工作。研究发现：（1）额尔古纳保护区生态系统质量指数（84.59）显著高于辉河（69.26）和锡林郭勒保护区（63.41）。（2）三个保护区不同功能区间的生态系统质量指数无显著差异。（3）2000—2018年,额尔古纳和锡林郭勒保护区的生态系统质量指数均呈显著上升趋势,但辉河保护区无明显变化。本文提出的评估方法能科学、快速地评估自然保护区生态系统质量现状及变化,可量化其恢复潜力,并能实现评估结果间的比较,为保护区建设和管理提供参考。