美国航空运输安全监管体系发展研究

为了提高我国航空运输安全水平,政府安全监管体系需要进一步完善,研究美国航空运输安全监管体系的发展规律及经验可为我国提供有益借鉴.着重对美国监管机构变化、监管方法变化、监管手段变化与事故率变化之间的关系加以研究,分析得出发生在美国历史上的特定的监管机构变化、监管方法变化及监管手段变化都对安全水平提高起到了明显积极作用.结果表明,以行业发展变化为驱动而发生的以实施风险管理为目的的监管机构变革、系统安全方法的应用及不断推广、更加深入广泛地利用信息技术改进监管手段,可以对安全水平的提高起到积极作用.此外,监管体系的设计还应从更高的层面考虑,将其应用于对监管当局自身安全管理能力的持续提高.     

Fire in the woods or fire in the boiler: Implementing rural district heating to reduce wildfire risks in the forest–urban interface

Many rural communities in British Columbia (western Canada) are at risk from wildfire. This risk will increase over time as a result of climate change because of higher average temperatures, longer growing seasons, and more intense droughts. On the other hand, these communities are also faced with rising fuel costs and a growing demand for heat as suburban population increases. The fact these communities are surrounded by forests presents an opportunity to combine community wildfire risk abatement with bioenergy development. Additional co-benefits include: (1) reduced community energy expenditures; (2) the creation of local jobs; (3) climate change mitigation; and (4) increased community energy security. Here, we present results from three pilot rural communities (Burns Lake, Invermere, and Sicamous, all of them in British Columbia) designed to evaluate the feasibility of wildfire risk abatement in conjunction with bioenergy production. Maps were created showing each community's forest–urban interface area with quantified estimates of its sustainable woody biomass resource potential under different management scenarios while monitoring ecosystem and soil health. The results and experience gained through this work has been synthesized in a calculator tool to help other communities make their own screening-level assessments. This calculator is a freely available on-line tool: FIRST Heat.     

Understanding the regional context of sustainable concrete in Asia: Case studies in Mongolia and Singapore

In order to improve the sustainability of the Asian concrete industry, it is important to understand the effect of regional context considering the widely varying socio-economic conditions present in Asia. This research in Mongolia and Singapore was conducted as a continuation of previous studies in Japan, Thailand and South Korea in order to further contribute to understanding regional context, particularly geographic, climate, and economic factors. Geography and climate were found to strongly affect the means by which durability should be assured in each country, as Singapore has a tropical climate whereas Mongolia experiences a large temperature variation with extremely cold winters. The ability to access construction materials and resources was also related to geography, as Singapore, while resource poor, is an international shipping center, whereas Mongolia has abundant resources but few access routes for imports. Quality control issues in Mongolia could be understood in the context of the lower level of economic development, whereas in Singapore the high level of development has lead to an emphasis on green construction, with the government taking the lead in implementing new systems and technologies.     

User Perceptions and Attitudes on Sustainable Urban Transport among Young Adults: Findings from Copenhagen,Budapest and Karlsruhe

Abstract

This paper addresses the relevance of the demand side for the achievement of sustainable transport in urban areas. The underlying thesis is that a better understanding of user habits, perceptions and attitudes with its specific dynamics is essential for a successful design of targeted transport policies. In line with this, the paper at hand is based on research that aims at improving the knowledge of urban-transport-related habits and attitudes of young adults. The results of three interview meetings that were held in Karlsruhe, Budapest, and Copenhagen with participants aged between 20 and 30 are presented. Background of the interviews is a range of studies that indicate that young people in urban areas seem to be less interested in cars than the generation before. And indeed, the interview meetings reveal that participants had a rather pragmatic attitude towards transport modes. They wished a transport system that is flexible, convenient and cheap. Despite many differences, most participants showed rather positive attitudes towards policies supporting alternatives to car-based transport. However, it will be crucial for policy shaping to what extent the observed behaviour patterns and attitudes will persist over time.     

距离相关分析法在航空维修人为差错分析中的应用

目的为有效预防人为差错,制定相应可靠的预防机制和措施提供科学依据。方法将距离相关分析法应用到航空维修人为差错综合分析中,计算出航空维修人为差错相关系数,对各个影响因素进行数学化表达。结合距离相关分析理论,对相关系数进行定性分析。结果该方法切实可行,分析结果易于理解,影响航空维修人为差错的各个因素之间有着密不可分的联系。因组织管理与因业务技能因素导致的人为差错的相关系数为0.983。结论制定预防航空维修人为差错的措施时,应将各个因素进行综合考量。     

基于SAGE的航空排放计算方法研究及其应用

随着全球航空业的不断发展,航空排放控制措施层出不穷,准确计算航空排放量以衡量控制措施的优劣很重要。文章详细阐述了SAGE模型计算航空排放的核心思想,深入分析了SAGE模型的计算模块。通过对SAGE模型计算航空排放的过程分析,设计了飞机飞行全航段的排放计算流程,并完成了系统建设。介绍了该系统的总体设计和主操作界面;利用该系统计算了某些航班的排放量,结果表明计算值与实际值相比误差很小。     

生物质能与可持续发展

生物质能是当前能源和生态环境领域研究的热点。分析和研究,指出了生物质能在国内外的发展现状和趋势。全、实现可持续发展意义重大。本文对生物质能的资源分类和利用方式进行了明确了开发利用生物质能源,对保障国家能源安     

基于神经网络的民航安全态势评估模型及仿真

民航安全态势评估可以向管理者提供民航安全态势和未来态势变化的信息,帮助管理者作出科学的决策,是预防事故发生的关键。航空器事故征候、事故征候率和灾变的科学预测评估是民航安全态势评估的核心内容,分析选取影响民航安全态势的安全运行因素,尝试建立了民航安全态势评估模型,结合BP神经网络和Elman神经网络进行民航安全态势评估。2008-2010年民航安全态势评估结果如下：民航安全态势整体良好但事故征候较多,其中2009年的民航安全态势相对严峻,需要密切注意民用航空器事故的发生,同时应对2010年民用航空器事故进行高度关注,希望管理者采取积极措施进行事故预防。结果表明,基于神经网络建立的民航安全态势评估模型是可行的,可以作为我国民航安全态势评估的有效工具。     

基于风险耦合理论的航空装备本质安全管理研究

为提高航空装备的本质安全管理水平,奠定新一代航空装备安全服役的良好基础,基于目前本质安全管理理论片面强调组成元素自身本质安全度的提高,忽略系统组元间耦合交互作用的现实,提出了一种基于风险耦合理论的航空装备本质安全管理模型。对航空事故本质致因和耦合风险理论进行了分析,指出耦合风险的原因主要在于各系统组元在容错性、兼容性和标准化等方面存有缺陷。构建了基于耦合理论的飞机本质安全管理图示模型,强调系统宏观安全度的提高在于组元的本质安全化和对组元内部及组元之间耦合风险的有效管控,建立了系统安全度和耦合风险度计算模型,为航空装备服役安全性的提高提供了新理念。     

美国通勤航空安全影响因素分析及对我国的启示

随着我国民航业的快速发展,通勤航空迎来前所未有的发展机遇,阿拉善盟通勤航空试点的建立更加说明在我国发展通勤航空是一种必然趋势。通勤航空起源于美国,发展速度极快,目前占据了美国整个航空业一半航班数、四分之一乘客数,已经发展成为美国支线航空运输的重要组成部分,但是其安全形势不容乐观。对美国通勤航空的安全现状从人-机-环-管4个方面进行分析,并对比分析我国和美国通勤航空发展环境的差距,借鉴美国采取的措施,为我国通勤航空运输企业的安全运行提出一些可以借鉴的经验:如规章制度要科学,规章体系要完善;严格控制通勤航空各类技术人员合格证书的颁发;加强安全监管;将干线、支线航空的安全数据分享给通勤航空。