Evaluating the impact of uncertainty and variability on the value chain optimization of a forest biomass power plant using Monte Carlo Simulation

Mathematical programming models have been used to optimize the design and management of forest bioenergy supply chains. A deterministic mathematical model is beneficial for making optimum decisions; however, its applicability to real-world problems may be limited because it does not capture all the complexities, including uncertainties in the parameters, in the supply chain. In this paper, a combination of Monte Carlo Simulation and optimization model is used to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in biomass quality, availability and cost, and electricity prices on the supply chain of a forest biomass power plant. The optimization model is a deterministic mixed integer non-linear model with monthly time steps over a 1-year planning horizon. Variability in biomass quality, i.e. moisture content (MC) and higher heating value (HHV), based on the historical data of a real case study is studied in detail and fitted probability distributions are used in the model, while for electricity prices different scenarios are considered. The results show that the impact of variability in the MC on profit is higher than that of uncertainty in HHV. It is observed that the annual profit ranges between $13.3 million and $17.9 million in the presence of all possible uncertainties while its average is $15.5 million. Uncertainty in biomass availability and cost and electricity price results in the risks of having annual profit of less than $14 million and low monthly storage levels.     

Drilling Is Just the Beginning: Romanticizing Rust Belt identities in the campaign for shale gas

ABSTRACT

Public apprehension over the environmental, social, and health impacts of unconventional gas drilling, or fracking, prompts various responses from oil and gas industries. Natural gas discourses operating in the Marcellus Shale Region, USA, for example, counter claims of environmental harm by emphasizing the economic growth that industry spurs. This article argues that corporate narratives operating in the Marcellus renew the jobs versus environment dichotomy by romanticizing labor identities in the region, binding Rust Belt identities to extraction in the past, present, and future of the region. The danger of this discursive move is the exclusion of alternative possibilities for working, living, and being without fossil fuel industries. I employ a critical analysis of one corporate advertising campaign, “Drilling Is Just the Beginning,” produced by the natural gas drilling company Range Resources, to demonstrate how extraction discourses construct futures that depend on shale gas development, thereby marginalizing possibilities for ecologically sensible alternatives.     

城市能源利用与环境保护的综合管理初探

能源短缺和环境污染已成为中国推行全面协调可持续发展的重要制约因素,作为能源消耗的主体和环境污染的控制重点,在城市层面推动能源发展战略的转变和强化环境保护是发展的基本要求.鉴于能源与环境之间的高度关联性,在管理方面要求对能源发展和环境保护进行统筹考虑和综合管理,充分强调能源经济效率和环境制约因素在能源发展中的作用.通过制定合理的产业能效标准和排放绩效标准,为城市经济、能源和环境的可持续性发展提供科学性、系统性决策支持.     

基于灰色关联分析的工业行业资源环境节约水平评价——以南京市为例

构建了工业行业资源环境节约水平评价指标体系,结合灰色关联分析方法建立了工业行业资源环境节约水平评价模型,并运用灰色关联分析原理依据灰色关联度的大小划分了工业行业资源环境节约水平的等级标准。在此基础上,以南京市为例,对工业行业的资源环境节约水平进行了评价,结果表明,南京市的13个工业行业的资源环境节约水平可以分为四个等级,并且文章结合行业产值贡献水平,提出了各工业行业发展的调控方向。     

垃圾填埋场室内模拟试验注水量确定方法及其应用

针对填埋场室内模拟试验往往忽略降雨径流和初损的问题,提出运用SCS模型确定室内模拟试验日注水量的方法,并将计算结果应用于成都长安填埋场室内模拟试验中.结果表明,采用SCS模型计算所得的日入渗量进行注水的模拟柱渗滤液产量和水质变化能够更准确的模拟填埋场实际情况.     

Visitor-induced changes in the chemical composition of soils in backcountry areas of Mt Robson Provincial Park, British Columbia, Canada

Balancing recreation and conservation is an important issue in Canada's parks and protected areas. Increased levels of visitation to parks, especially to backcountry areas, create undue pressure on natural resources, resulting in a variety of ecological impacts. This paper illustrates the issue of visitor-induced changes on the chemical composition of soils in Mt Robson Provincial Park, British Columbia. Soil samples were collected from dish wash stations and fire pits (disturbed sites) at seven campgrounds located along two popular backcountry trails, and were compared to samples obtained from adjacent undisturbed control sites. Analysis of soil samples suggest that the lower amounts of aluminum, potassium, magnesium and sodium in many of the 'disturbed' samples can be related to intense leaching in dish wash stations, and can be attributed to frequent disposal of waste water from washing and cooking activities. Soils in wash stations generally had higher phosphorus, copper and zinc contents as compared to controls. Soils in fire pits were elevated in copper, relative to controls. Results of this study support park regulations that waste water disposal and camp fires be restricted to designated areas. Informing the public of scientific studies helps them understand the consequences of their activities; this may help persuade them to observe park rules and regulations.     

Definition of Homogeneous Environmental Management Units for the Catalan Coast

Geographical areas constitute the basic implementation locus for integrated coastal zone management strategies and activities. Because the definition of territorial planning objectives may be affected by socioeconomic and environmental characteristics, one of the main steps in the process involves dividing the coast into homogeneous environmental management units (HEMUs). This article presents a general and simple method for regionalizing the landside of a coastal zone into HEMUs and illustrates it through application to the Catalan coast. Socioeconomic and natural (biophysical) subsystems were selected as the most appropriate dimensions of the regionalization process. Dimensions were described using 11 spatial themes, which were managed in a geographic information system environment that proved to be an adequate tool for the purpose. A final coastal zone map of four classes of HEMUs connected to local administrative units was obtained, and because it reflects the current natural and socioeconomic dynamics, it can be considered as an initial step in the planning process for the Catalan coast. Although the proposed method was developed based on the characteristics of the Catalan coast, it is general enough to be adapted and applied to most developed or developing coastal areas.     

半导体企业的EHSMS评价体系研究

为了给员工提供安全、环保、健康的工作环境,半导体制造企业必须建立环境管理和职业健康安全管理体系(EHSMS).为此,评价EHSMS运行的有效性、完整性以及合法性就显得十分重要.本文在分析半导体企业污染物影响环境和健康基础上,建立了EHSMS评估体系.为了实施EHSM评估系统,方便半导体企业用户使用,提出了一套EHSM评价系统的计算机软件解决方案.     

UniTank工艺流程氨氮浓度的动态特征

利用基于ASM2D的数学模型对上海石洞口污水厂UniTank工艺内氨氮浓度的动态特性进行了仿真研究,发现该流程反应器氨氮浓度具有非稳态特征.反应器内氨氮浓度的变化规律与曝气时间设定及进水时间设定有关.增加曝气强度,能降低边池及中池的氨氮浓度,相应增大边池及中池的硝态氮浓度.