Numerical simulation of small-scale pool fires of LNG

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been largely indicated as a promising alternative solution for the transportation and storage of natural gas. In the case of accidental release on the ground, a pool fire scenario may occur. Despite the relevance of this accident, due to its likelihood and potential to trigger domino effects, accurate analyses addressing the characterization of pool fires of LNG are still missing.In this work, the fire dynamic simulator (FDS) has been adopted for the evaluation of the effects of the released amount of fuel and its composition (methane, ethane, and propane), on the thermal and chemical properties of small-scale LNG pool fire. More specifically, the heat release rate, the burning rate, the flame height, and thermal radiation, at different initial conditions, have been evaluated for pool having diameter smaller than 10 m. Safety distances have been calculated for all the investigated conditions, as well.Results have also been compared with data and correlations retrieved from the current literature. The equation of Thomas seems to work properly for the definition of the height over diameter ratio of the LNG pool fire for all the mixture and the investigated diameters.The addition of ethane and propane significantly affects the obtained results, especially in terms of radiative thermal radiation peaks, thus indicating the inadequacy of the commonly adopted assumption of pure methane as single, surrogate species for the LNG mixture.     

A study of the precursors leading to ‘organisational’ accidents in complex industrial settings

This study aggregates the narrative findings from the investigation of 12 accidents or ‘near hits’ across a wide range of industrial settings to build a catalogue of organisational and cultural precursors to accidents. It was found that many were important factors in multiple events. It is argued that by addressing these potential vulnerabilities using the findings and proposed tools based upon them, organisations undertaking safety related activities will not only develop greater awareness of these deeper-lying issues but should be able to better control the risks associated with them.The precursors have been classified under eight headings and examples of key findings from three of these are presented. Statements providing potential defences against the identified vulnerabilities have been developed which should enable organisations to scrutinise the adequacy of existing expectations or requirements within their business. Probing questions have been developed based on the statements which should allow an assessment to be made as to whether these have been ‘embedded’ in the organisation.It is argued that organisational vulnerability tools should be developed to enable a systematic approach to ‘diagnosing’ incubating precursors. It is also argued that there is the potential for further resilience to be achieved through the use of models of the complex dynamics of socio-technical processes within organisations.     

Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco‐evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco‐evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco‐evo PVA using individual‐based models with individual‐level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype–phenotype mapping to model emergent population‐level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco‐evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence.     

Alcohol is a predictor of mortality in motor vehicle collisions

IntroductionIt is well recognized that driving while intoxicated increases the probability of a motor-vehicle collision (MVC). The effect of alcohol on the chance of surviving the MVC is less clear. Method: Using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) we conducted analyses for the outcome of mortality using alcohol and other variables as predictors. We also selected alcohol positive (AP) and alcohol negative (AN) persons from the same MVC and vehicle to control for confounding characteristics. Results: The odds ratio (OR) for mortality for alcohol positive drivers was 2.57, (p < 0.001 for all the following OR). Other harmful predictive factors were age OR 1.01 per year, vehicle age OR 1.05 per year, male sex OR 1.23, avoidance maneuver OR 1.09, speed related OR 2.89, rollover mechanism OR 2.75, and collision with a fixed object OR 6.70. Protective factors were proper restraint use – OR 0.19 and collision with another moving vehicle, OR 0.21. In the multivariate analysis the OR of mortality for AP vs AN was 1.46. Proper restraint use (OR 0.27) remained protective along with collision with another moving vehicle. When AP and AN persons from the same MVC and the same vehicle were compared, the adjusted OR’s for mortality were 1.46 and 2.08, respectively. Conclusions: Alcohol is an independent predictor of mortality in an MVC. Proper restraint use is the strongest protective factor. This finding allows a more complete understanding of the risks of driving while intoxicated, not only a higher probability of an MVC, but decreased survival once the MVC occurs. Practical Applications: Identification of alcohol as an independent predictor of mortality in an accident may improve risk assessment and influence drivers to avoid driving while intoxicated.     

应用系统动力学原理制定小流域经济建设决策

本文应用系统动力学原理，就太平沟小流域资源的开发利用进行了系统分析，绘制了ＳＤ模型流程图，编制了ＳＤ模型程序，经微机模拟仿真，确定了“综合型”发展为该流域资源开发利用方向，为该类型区小而域经济建设及两高一优农业发展提供了科学依据和方法。     

采果期甜椒氮素营养特性及分配规律

利用^15N示踪技术研究了水培甜椒果实收获期间吸收的氮素在体内的动态分配规律。结果表明：甜椒果实收获期间营养器官与生殖器官干物质积累动态呈一平行的线性增长趋势，果实干物质积累量于始采期以后开始超过叶片，而果实氮素积累到盛采期才超过叶片，果实含氮量在整个采果期间保持稳定，随生长发育，叶片含氮迅速下降，盛采期时与果实和根相近，且均高于茎和侧枝，始采期通过根吸收的标记态氮主要贮存在叶片与果实中，叶片、果实是甜椒始采用氮素分配的最主要器官。此后，叶片和根成为主要的氮素输出器官，而果实则成为主要的输入器官。研究发现，甜椒体内的氮即使一度成为结合态，能能够被再度输出，但是，氮素在植株体内滞留的时间越长，越难以再度向外输出，并且不同器官输出的难易程度也是不相同的，比较而言，叶片和根中一度成为结合态的氮素容易被再交输出，甜椒果实是氮的强力库，氮素竞争力最强。     

北京城市生态系统的能值动态分析

采用能值理论与分析方法,对北京市1990~2001年间的能值结构动态进行了分析,并采用人均能值、能值密度、生态功能潜力、人口基本承载力、能值自给率、能值货币比率、环境负载率、输入能值比等重要能值指标对该时期北京市城市生态系统的能值状况作了详细分析。研究表明,北京城市生态系统正处于较高发展水平,已基本跨入发达国家水平的行列;但高强度、快速发展给本市带来了巨大的生态环境压力,未来北京的可持续能力建设已势在必行。文章也提出了北京城市生态系统可持续发展能力建设的基本方向。     

鼓翅皱膝蝗生态学特性研究

在甘肃省夏河县对鼓翅皱膝蝗的种群结构、数量变动、空间格局及动脉进行了系统研究。鼓翅皱膝蝗1a发生1代，以卵在土中越冬，翌年5月中旬开始孵化出土，6月上旬达到出土高峰，此期蝗虫种群仅由1龄和2龄蝗蝻组成，其中1龄蝗蝻占81.8％，2龄蝗蝻占18.2％，成虫于7月上旬开始羽化，8月上旬达到羽化高峰，此期的成虫数量达61.3％，而蝗蝻仅占38.7％，蝗蝻期约为72d，成虫寿命54d左右，每雌平均产卵32.6粒。鼓翅皱膝蝗在草地上属聚集分布，蝗蝻发生期种群的空间动态主要表现出扩散趋势，但初孵化出土时有短暂的聚集行为。取食量随龄期增大而增大，每头鼓翅皱膝蝗取食牧草量蝗蝻期平均为1.5g，成早期约为5.8g，成早期的食量是蝗蝻期的3.7倍。表3参12     

Study of the dynamics of estuarine and coastal waters using remote sensing: the Tinto-Odiel estuary, SW Spain

This paper deals with the application of satellite images to characterize some aspects of the circulation dynamics of the Tinto-Odiel estuary using turbidity patterns as ‘natural tracers’. 15 images (Landsat TM and Spot HRV) were processed to provide synoptic, instantaneous views of the circulation patterns under different environmental conditions. In addition, a comparison was made between results of oceanographic field work, using biplanes and fluorescent tracers, and satellite image turbidity patterns used as ‘ground truth’ data for specific hydroclimatic situations. This approach allowed (1) the identification and mapping of dynamic processes of interest during a theoretical tidal cycle, (2) the elaboration of additional information on the ‘flow schemes’ at the mouth of the estuary with improved spatial and temporal resolution, and (3) the supply of basic data to improve the knowledge of exchange processes between estuarine and coastal waters. The results of this study are considered to be useful for the management of the estuarine system.     

川西亚高山白桦林小气候的时空动态特征

对川西亚高山白桦林(海拔2 540 m)内太阳辐射、空气温湿度以及土壤5 cm和15 cm层温度等进行了连续的定位观测.结果表明:1)林冠下的太阳辐射日进程与林冠上的不同,但辐射强度随着太阳高度角的变化而变化;林冠下太阳辐射日总量不仅受林冠上辐射日总量的影响,也受森林群落生长季节的影响;春、夏和秋季,林冠下平均辐射日总量分别占林冠上平均辐射日总量的53.1%、39.4%和55.8%.2)夏季,白天空气温度高于土壤温度,而夜间则相反;空气温度和土壤温度的日极端温度出现的时间不同步,空气温度对太阳辐射强度的敏感性比土壤温度的敏感性高.3)春季,土壤表层>4℃的积温高于空气和土壤底层>4℃的积温;夏季,>4℃的积温由高到低的次序为:林冠下空气>土壤5 cm层>土壤15 cm层,而秋季的比较结果与之相反;空气日平均温度与土壤日平均温度有显著的线性关系(P<0.001).4)林冠下的空气相对湿度(RH)比林冠上的高,林冠下的空气RH日变幅和季节性变幅比林冠上的小.图7表1参19