The impact of a standard enforcement safety belt law on fatalities and hospital charges in Ohio

Introduction

The purpose of this study was to analyze linked crash and hospital data to determine the effect that enactment of a standard enforcement safety belt law in Ohio would have on hospital charges and direct medical costs due to motor-vehicle crashes, focusing on the impact to the state's Medicaid system.

Method

The linkage and analysis was conducted as part of the Ohio Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (CODES) program. Current safety belt usage in Ohio stands at 82% with its secondary enforcement safety belt law.

Results

Assuming an increase in usage to 92% through standard enforcement, over $15.3 million in medical costs to Medicaid for injuries that occur in a single year could be prevented over a 10-year period. Cumulative savings could reach more than $91.2 million during the 10-year period. In addition, 161 fatalities could have been prevented in one year had all unbelted occupants who sustained a fatal injury instead chosen to wear their safety belt.

Summary and Impact on Industry

Clearly, substantial progress can be made in reducing the number of deaths and injuries, as well as medical costs associated with motor-vehicle crashes, by strengthening safety belt laws and increasing safety belt usage in Ohio.     

爆破地震波作用下尾矿坝的有限元动力分析

为了了解某钼矿进行爆破采矿是否会对近距离的尾矿坝产生破坏作用,结合实际勘探资料,在二维静力非线性有限元分析的基础上,进行爆破地震波作用下坝体的动力反应分析,综合研究了动位移、动应力和加速度时程等关键物理量变化的规律性,并在此基础上进一步结合试验资料对坝体进行了液化判断及稳定性分析。分析结果表明,该钼矿在规定的爆心距、药量范围内进行爆破采矿时,相邻的尾矿坝是安全稳定的。本文的研究结果对爆破设计、现场采矿及尾矿坝体运行维护均具有一定的指导意义。     

Effects of site-selection bias on estimates of biodiversity change

Estimates of biodiversity change are essential for the management and conservation of ecosystems. Accurate estimates rely on selecting representative sites, but monitoring often focuses on sites of special interest. How such site-selection biases influence estimates of biodiversity change is largely unknown. Site-selection bias potentially occurs across four major sources of biodiversity data, decreasing in likelihood from citizen science, museums, national park monitoring, and academic research. We defined site-selection bias as a preference for sites that are either densely populated (i.e., abundance bias) or species rich (i.e., richness bias). We simulated biodiversity change in a virtual landscape and tracked the observed biodiversity at a sampled site. The site was selected either randomly or with a site-selection bias. We used a simple spatially resolved, individual-based model to predict the movement or dispersal of individuals in and out of the chosen sampling site. Site-selection bias exaggerated estimates of biodiversity loss in sites selected with a bias by on average 300–400% compared with randomly selected sites. Based on our simulations, site-selection bias resulted in positive trends being estimated as negative trends: richness increase was estimated as 0.1 in randomly selected sites, whereas sites selected with a bias showed a richness change of −0.1 to −0.2 on average. Thus, site-selection bias may falsely indicate decreases in biodiversity. We varied sampling design and characteristics of the species and found that site-selection biases were strongest in short time series, for small grains, organisms with low dispersal ability, large regional species pools, and strong spatial aggregation. Based on these findings, to minimize site-selection bias, we recommend use of systematic site-selection schemes; maximizing sampling area; calculating biodiversity measures cumulatively across plots; and use of biodiversity measures that are less sensitive to rare species, such as the effective number of species. Awareness of the potential impact of site-selection bias is needed for biodiversity monitoring, the design of new studies on biodiversity change, and the interpretation of existing data.     

流域污染负荷水质响应的时空数值源解析方法研究

以目前广泛应用的环境流体动力学模型EFDC为平台,构建时空数值源解析方法,理论上可以得到任意时刻任意空间点位污染物的来源构成.其原理是考虑水质模型的微分方程,直接对每个污染负荷再微分,从而将原来1个微分方程变为关于每个污染源的微分方程组,然后联立以EFDC的水动力模型求解,得到每个源对每个时空点的贡献.概化的抚仙湖模型作为数值案例用以验证方法.时空数值源解析的结果与传统扰动方法的结果几乎重合,验证了时空数值源解析方法的正确性.另一方面,数值案例中存在34个独立的污染源,扰动法则需要35次模拟,而时空数值源解析方法的结果通过单次模拟就可得到,说明时空数值源解析方法具有明显的计算效率优势.而通过对结果的进一步分析可以发现,时空数值源解析方法可以提供更精确的源贡献的动态描述.     

塔机安全监控与评估系统开发及应用

目前中国由于建设项目繁多,在役塔机数量急剧上升,若不加强监管和提升控制手段,安全事故隐患会随着塔机数量的增加剧增。本文对塔机安全事故发生的主要原因进行了分析,介绍了塔机安全监控和评估系统的技术现状,对一种新研发的塔机安全监控与评估系统做了简要阐述。同时通过对试点工程的应用,指出了本塔机安全监控和评估系统的优势,为塔机的安全作业监控提供了一个新的技术方法和手段。     

若尔盖泥炭地溶解有机碳季节变化特征及其影响因素

DOC(溶解有机碳)是泥炭地碳循环中最活跃、最敏感的指标. 以若尔盖木里苔草(Carex muliensis)泥炭地为研究对象,分析了2012年该泥炭地DOC季节变化特征及其影响因素,旨在揭示泥炭地碳循环特征及其对全球变化的潜在响应. 结果表明:若尔盖木里苔草泥炭地孔隙水中ρ(DOC)季节变化显著(P<0.001, n=12),总体呈先升后降趋势,8月和5月分别出现最高值(42.77mg/L)和最低值(26.27mg/L). DOC复合物组成结构季节变化明显,主要表现在:在整个生长季节,DOC复合物芳香组分〔A₂₅₄/ρ(DOC),其中A₂₅₄为波长254nm处的吸光度,余同〕及有色组分相对含量〔A₄₀₀/ρ(DOC)〕逐渐增加,变化范围分别为0.02~0.05和0.002~0.007;5—7月DOC复合物腐殖化程度(E4/E6,即A₄₅₀/A₆₅₀)迅速降低,8—10月又逐渐增强. 此外,土壤层温度、地表温度及相对湿度是泥炭地孔隙水ρ(DOC)季节变化的主要影响因素,三者的R2分别为0.522、0.486和0.369,降水量则对有色组分含量和腐殖化程度的季节动态有很大贡献(R分别为0.748、-0.604),同时腐殖化程度还受到土壤层和地表温度的影响(R分别为0.744、0.722). 该研究结果有利于从DOC复合物的组成结构方面进一步了解DOC季节特征及其变化的潜在机制.      

Simulation and application of a disaster spread model in Chemical Disaster Network

In the research field of chemical safety, the computer-aided simulation for occurrence and process of disasters has become a major trend in current research, in which the establishment of evolution system for chemical multi disasters is the key point. In the paper, the study lays emphasis on the simulation and application of a spread model for chemical multi disasters. After establishing a disaster network, we defined microcosmic elements of spread model specifically. Combined with guideline of chemical disaster (e.g. guideline of heat flux for damages or injure, guideline of evaluation for buildings based explosion and overpressure, and guideline of evaluation for human exposure to toxic gases), the weight of impact can be computed using new comprehensive algorithms. Simultaneously, the paper also uses an approach on simulating multiple failure events to describe random factors of triggering disasters. At last, the experimental case of alkyl aluminum leakage in a polypropylene plant shows the result of simulation with table of 5 major series of disasters and distribution diagram of nodes (disasters) in disaster network. This proves the validity and practicability of the simulation system in the establishment and feedback of contingency plan of large-scale petrochemical enterprises.     

System safety principles: A multidisciplinary engineering perspective

System safety is of particular importance for many industries. Broadly speaking, it refers to the state or objective of striving to sustainably ensure accident prevention through actions on multiple safety levers (technical, organizational, and regulatory). While complementary to risk analysis, it is distinct in one important way: risk analysis is anticipatory rationality examining the possibility of adverse events (or accident scenarios), and the tools of risk analysis support and in some cases quantify various aspects of this analysis effort. The end-objective of risk analysis is to help identify and prioritize risks, inform risk management, and support risk communication. These tools however do not provide design or operational guidelines and principles for eliminating or mitigating risks. Such considerations fall within the purview of system safety.In this work, we propose a set of five safety principles, which are domain-independent, technologically agnostic, and broadly applicable across industries. While there is a proliferation of detailed safety measures (tactics) in specific areas and industries, a synthesis of high-level safety principles or strategies that are independent of any particular instantiation, and from which specific safety measures can be derived or related to, has pedagogical value and fulfills an important role in safety training and education. Such synthesis effort also supports creativity and technical ingenuity in the workforce for deriving specific safety measures, and for implementing these principles and handling specific local or new risks. Our set of safety principles includes: (1) the fail-safe principle; (2) the safety margins principle; (3) the un-graduated response principle (under which we subsume the traditional “inherently safe design” principle); (4) the defense-in-depth principle; and (5) the observability-in-depth principle. We carefully examine each principle and provide examples that illustrate their use and implementation. We relate these principles to the notions of hazard level, accident sequence, and conditional probabilities of further hazard escalation or advancement of an accident sequence. These principles are a useful addition to the intellectual toolkit of engineers, decision-makers, and anyone interested in safety issues, and they provide helpful guidelines during system design and risk management efforts.     

Dynamic behavior of direct spring loaded pressure relief valves in gas service: Model development,measurements and instability mechanisms

A synthesis of previous literature is used to derive a model of an in-service direct-spring pressure relief valve. The model couples low-order rigid body mechanics for the valve to one-dimensional gas dynamics within the pipe. Detailed laboratory experiments are also presented for three different commercially available values, for varying mass flow rates and length of inlet pipe. In each case, violent oscillation is found to occur beyond a critical pipe length, which may be triggered either on valve opening or closing. The test results compare favorably to the simulations using the model. In particular, the model reveals that the mechanism of instability is a Hopf bifurcation (flutter instability) involving the fundamental, quarter-wave pipe mode. Furthermore, the concept of the effective area of the valve as a function of valve lift is shown to be useful in explaining sudden jumps observed in the test data. It is argued that these instabilities are not alleviated by the 3% inlet line loss criterion that has recently been proposed as an industry standard.     

Validation of the UN test method N.5

Many substances react with water in such a way that flammable gases are formed. For transport issues this reaction may possess a considerable hazard especially if the cargo is wetted by rain or by water from other sources. In the UN Recommendations on the Transport of Dangerous Goods these kinds of problems are addressed. The UN test N.5 “Test method for substances which in contact with water emit flammable gases” corresponds to this hazard. Classification according to the test method is done by measurement of the gas evolution rate of the flammable gas by any suitable procedure. At BAM a gravimetric approach is used to measure the gas evolution rate. In this paper we present the evaluation of the apparatus by means of an absolute calibration routine utilizing a reaction where a known amount of gas is produced as well as the evaluation of important parameters influencing the gas evolution rate using different substances. It can be shown that the apparatus is capable of measuring absolute gas volumes as low as 6 mL with an acceptable error of about 17% as determined from the reaction of Mg with demineralized water.