Modeling the population dynamics of cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) over a wide area in northern China

The cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is one of the most serious crop pests in northern China, calling for accurate prediction of pest outbreaks and strategies for pest control. A computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics of H. armigera over a wide area in northern China. The area considered covers 12 provinces where serious outbreaks of H. armigera have been observed. In this model, pest development is driven by local ambient temperature, and adults migrate long distances between regions and select preferred hosts for oviposition within a region. Six types of host including cotton, wheat, corn, peanut, soybean and a single category composed of all other minor hosts are considered in this model. Survival rates of eggs and larvae are based on life-table data, and simulated as a function of host type, host phenology and temperature. The incidence of diapause depends on temperature and photoperiod experienced during the larval stage. Survival rate of non-diapause pupae is a nonlinear function of rainfall, and overwinter survival rate is a nonlinear function of temperature. Insecticide is applied when population density exceeds the economic threshold on a host crop within a region. Comparisons of model output with light-trap data indicate that our model reflects the pest population dynamics over a wide area, and could potentially be used for testing novel pest control strategies in northern China.     

Enhancing generic ecological model for short-term prediction of Southern North Sea algal dynamics with remote sensing images

Physically based numerical modelling follows from the basic understanding of the underlying mechanisms and is often represented by a set of (partial differential) equations. It is one of the main approaches in population dynamics modelling. The emphasis of the model introduced in this paper is on the simulation of short-term spatial and temporal dynamics of harmful algal bloom (HAB) events. Total suspended matter (TSM) concentration is one of the dominant factors for harmful algal bloom (HAB) prediction in North Sea. However, the modelling of suspended matter contains a high degree of uncertainty in this area. Therefore, this research aims to achieve a better estimation for the short-term prediction of harmful algal bloom development in both space and time by using spatially distributed TSM retrieved from remotely sensed images as physically based model inputs. In order to supply complete spatially covered datasets for the physically based model instrument: generic ecological model (GEM), this research retrieves TSM information from MERIS images by means of proper estimation techniques including biharmonic splines and self-learning cellular automata. A better estimation of HAB spatial pattern development is achieved by adding spatially distributed TSM data as inputs to original GEM model, and it proved that chlorophyll-a concentration in this area is very sensitive to TSM concentration.     

Influence of low and decreasing food levels on Daphnia-algal interactions: Numerical experiments with a new dynamic energy budget model

Based on numerical experiments with a new physiologically structured population model we demonstrate that predator physiology under low food and under starving conditions can have substantial implications for population dynamics in predator-prey interactions. We focused on Daphnia-algae interactions as model system and developed a new dynamic energy budget (DEB) model for individual daphnids. This model integrates the κ-rule approach common to net assimilation models into a net-production model, but uses a fixed allocation of net-productive energy in juveniles. The new DEB-model agrees well with the results of life history experiments with Daphnia. Compared to a pure κ-rule model the new allocation scheme leads to significant earlier maturation at low food levels and thus is in better agreement with the data. Incorporation of the new DEB-model into a physiologically structured population model using a box-car elevator technique revealed that the dynamics of Daphnia-algae interactions are highly sensitive to the assumptions on the energy allocation of juveniles under low food conditions. Additionally we show that also other energy allocation rules of our DEB-model concerning decreasing food levels and starving conditions at the individual level have strong implications for Daphnia-algae interactions at the population level. With increasing carrying capacity of algae a stable equilibrium with coexistence of Daphnia occurs and algae shifts to limit cycles. The amplitudes of the limit cycles increase with increasing percentage of sustainable weight loss. If a κ-rule energy allocation is applied to juveniles, the stable equilibrium occurs for a much narrower range of algal carrying capacities, the algal concentration at equilibrium is about 2 times larger, and the range of algae carrying capacities at which daphnids become extinct extends to higher carrying capacities than in the new DEB-model. Because predator-prey dynamics are very sensitive to predator physiology under low food and starving conditions, empirical constraints of predator physiology under these conditions are essential when comparing model results with observations in laboratory experiments or in the field.     

Analysis of the global warming dynamics from temperature time series

Global warming is the observed increase of the average temperature of the Earth. The primary cause of this phenomenon is the release of the greenhouse gases by burning of fossil fuels, land cleaning, agriculture, among others, leading to the increase of the so-called greenhouse effect. An approach to deal with this important problem is the time series analysis. In this regard, different techniques can be applied to evaluate the global warming dynamics. This kind of analysis allows one to make better predictions increasing our comprehension of the phenomenon. This article applies nonlinear tools to analyze temperature time series establishing state space reconstruction and prediction. Since noise contamination is unavoidable in data acquisition, it is important to employ robust techniques. The method of delay coordinates is employed for state space reconstruction and delay parameters are evaluated using the method of average mutual information and the method of false nearest neighbors. Afterwards, the simple nonlinear prediction method is employed to estimate temperatures of the future. Temperature time series from different places of the planet are used. Initially, the approach is verified considering known parts of the time series and afterwards, results are extrapolated for future values estimating temperature until 2028. Results show that these techniques are interesting to estimate temperature time history, presenting coherent estimations.     

An Observation Method for Analyzing Operators’ Routine Activity in Computerized Control Rooms

An activity analysis method was developed for studying the structure and dynamics of control room operators’ activity during normal operation based on directly observable elements of the operators’ behavior. The method assesses current activity along three dimensions in each 5-min period of the shift. Intensity characterizes arousal level, direction shows whether the activity is directed predominantly at the process control task, at something else, or miscellaneous. Motivation reflects if the activity is driven by intrinsic or extrinsic motivation. A case study is presented, in which 3 morning, 3 afternoon, and 3 night shifts of a Nuclear Power Plant operator crew are involved. The obtained results gave a deeper understanding of the operators’ activity and also revealed an “arousal compensation” tendency.     

地震应急避难需求的系统动力学研究

为定量研究地震应急避难人群的规模及变化规律,建立需求分析的系统动力学模型。该模型包括建筑物倒塌,断水和电梯停运3种因素造成的需求。参考汶川地震中板房建设速度和电梯修复速度,以及日本关于地震断水率的研究成果,建立非线性模型拟合各需求的变化规律。采用Vensim软件建立系统动力学模型,分析各需求的综合变化规律。采用上海市徐汇区的数据进行案例演算,并与其他研究方法对比分析仿真误差。仿真结果表明:建筑物损坏对人群数量的影响很大,但是灾后1个月内断水的影响最大;相对于工程技术因素,人因对需求有重要的影响。     

基于CIS理论的绿色大学评价指标体系研究

通过研究绿色大学建设过程中出现的不足,提出构建绿色大学评价指标体系是建设绿色大学的前提。以CIS（企业识别系统）理论为依据,从理念层、行为层和物质层三个层面进行研究,构建了一个由3个一级指标12个二级指标和45个三级指标构成的绿色大学评级指标体系。最后对绿色大学的评价方法进行了简单陈述。     

Increasing land pressure in East Africa: The changing role of cassava and consequences for sustainability of farming systems

Increasing land pressure during the past three to four decades has transformed farming systems in the mid-altitude zone of East Africa. Traditional millet-, cotton-, sugarcane- and/or banana-based farming systems with an important fallow and/or grazing component have evolved into continuously cultivated cassava or cassava/maize-based systems. Within three to four decades, cassava cultivation increased from 1–11 to 16–55% of cropped fields in our six study sites. Declining soil fertility, and not labour or food shortage, was apparently the primary trigger for this transformation. The land use changes have increased nutrient offtakes and reduced nutrient recycling rates. Cassava and maize now account for 50–90% of nutrient removal. Whereas single-season fallows were the most important source of nutrient recycling on cropped fields in the past, currently cassava litterfall and maize stover contribute roughly 70% of nutrient recycling, with 50–70% of N, P and K recycled in cassava litterfall. This may explain why many farmers reason that cassava ‘rests’ the soil. With increasing land use pressure farmers progressively use cassava as an ‘imitation fallow’ throughout their farm. Farmers increasingly target cassava to poor fertility fields characterized by low pH and available P. High cassava intensities are nonetheless maintained on more fertile fields, probably to guarantee regeneration of soil fertility on all fields. Once cassava is targeted to poor fertility soils, farmers have run out of low-input management options and need to intensify management to maintain system productivity. As cassava is now used by more farmers and on a larger acreage than fallowing in the studied farming systems, cassava cropping could perhaps serve as an excellent entry point to strengthen system sustainability.     

我国现行环境统计指标体系改进方向

我国现行环境统计指标体系在指标的选择和可操作性方面存在缺陷和不足,主要表现为污染物排放量的计算方法模糊、污染物排放标准未能得到有效实施、非重点工业排放量取值比例有待调整、污染源调查范围不能与时俱进、环境质量指标体系未纳入环境统计,这些问题需进一步完善,才能更好地适应环境管理工作需要。     

天津景观水体水生生态系统健康体系的建立与评估

综合多学科、多领域,从生物物理、社会经济和人类健康等方面综合考虑,建立了天津市景观河流健康评价指标体系,包括6个因素24个指标。评估了水生态健康程度。寻求人为压力与天津城市河流水生态系统变化之间的联系,识别河流受损原因．验证河流管理措施的有效性,对有效保障水生态安全、科学治水、综合利用水资源等均具有一定的科学指导作用。