我国现行环境统计指标体系改进方向

我国现行环境统计指标体系在指标的选择和可操作性方面存在缺陷和不足,主要表现为污染物排放量的计算方法模糊、污染物排放标准未能得到有效实施、非重点工业排放量取值比例有待调整、污染源调查范围不能与时俱进、环境质量指标体系未纳入环境统计,这些问题需进一步完善,才能更好地适应环境管理工作需要。     

天津景观水体水生生态系统健康体系的建立与评估

综合多学科、多领域,从生物物理、社会经济和人类健康等方面综合考虑,建立了天津市景观河流健康评价指标体系,包括6个因素24个指标。评估了水生态健康程度。寻求人为压力与天津城市河流水生态系统变化之间的联系,识别河流受损原因．验证河流管理措施的有效性,对有效保障水生态安全、科学治水、综合利用水资源等均具有一定的科学指导作用。     

沈阳市推行排污许可证制度的回顾、反思及对策研究

通过对沈阳市实施排污许可证制度的回顾、发现其存在的问题,并对推行排污许可讧制度提供对策与措施。     

流域农业面源污染动态监控系统的建立和运行

提出建立农业面源污染动态监控系统的技术构思,构筑了“辽宁省农业面源污染动态监控系统”的功能及运行机制的构架,阐述了推进此动态监控系统完善的研究方案与系统实施的保证措施。     

Dynamics of the Coordination of Economy-Society and Resource-Environment in Shandong Peninsula,China

Abstract

Shandong Peninsula, as a more developed region in Shandong Province even the east coast of China, is facing challenges from resources and environment pressures. This paper tried to track and assess the coordination status and the dynamic between resource-environment and economy-society systems in Shandong Peninsula during 2001—2008 in order to provide decision support for regional sustainability. An appraisal index system was built including five aspects of harmony degree (A), sustainability degree (B), opening degree (C), stability degree (D) and controllability degree (E). The results showed that: 1) The coordination level of resource-environment and economy-society in Shandong Peninsula has continuously grown, and it has undergone three stages: no coordinated degree (2001–2002), weak coordinated degree (2003–2006) and basically coordinated degree (2007– 2008). 2) Five indexes of criterion hierarchy also increased overall, but each index showed different trends. Harmony degree, sustainability degree and opening degree rose all the time, while stability degree and controllability degree alternately rose and fell. The improvement of controllability degree was the slowest. 3) The aggravating trend of environmental pollution was slowing down. The economic growth was driven by industrial growth and urbanization typically and investment was still the main force to pull the regional economic growth. At the same time, technology and education were becoming more and more important for economic growth. The level of foreign capital utility declined and the geographical advantage of Shandong Peninsula was exerted. Meanwhile some characteristics of knowledge economy were presenting. Water resources become the main constraint factor of fast development in Shandong Peninsula. It is necessary to further strengthen the coordination ability of government on regional sustainable development.     

Adaptive management in the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System: science-management partnerships for conservation delivery

Adaptive management is an approach to recurrent decision making in which uncertainty about the decision is reduced over time through comparison of outcomes predicted by competing models against observed values of those outcomes. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is a large land management program charged with making natural resource management decisions, which often are made under considerable uncertainty, severe operational constraints, and conditions that limit ability to precisely carry out actions as intended. The NWRS presents outstanding opportunities for the application of adaptive management, but also difficult challenges. We describe two cooperative programs between the Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey to implement adaptive management at scales ranging from small, single refuge applications to large, multi-refuge, multi-region projects. Our experience to date suggests three important attributes common to successful implementation: a vigorous multi-partner collaboration, practical and informative decision framework components, and a sustained commitment to the process. Administrators in both agencies should consider these attributes when developing programs to promote the use and acceptance of adaptive management in the NWRS.     

System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts

Accurate prediction of municipal water demand is critically important to water utilities in fast-growing urban regions for drinking water system planning, design, and water utility asset management. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is challenging, however, because the forecasting model must simultaneously consider a variety of factors associated with climate changes, economic development, population growth and migration, and even consumer behavioral patterns. Traditional forecasting models such as multivariate regression and time series analysis, as well as advanced modeling techniques (e.g., expert systems and artificial neural networks), are often applied for either short- or long-term water demand projections, yet few can adequately manage the dynamics of a water supply system because of the limitations in modeling structures. Potential challenges also arise from a lack of long and continuous historical records of water demand and its dependent variables. The objectives of this study were to (1) thoroughly review water demand forecasting models over the past five decades, and (2) propose a new system dynamics model to reflect the intrinsic relationship between water demand and macroeconomic environment using out-of-sample estimation for long-term municipal water demand forecasts in a fast-growing urban region. This system dynamics model is based on a coupled modeling structure that takes into account the interactions among economic and social dimensions, offering a realistic platform for practical use. Practical implementation of this water demand forecasting tool was assessed by using a case study under the most recent alternate fluctuations of economic boom and downturn environments.     

Ethnobotany and ecological perspectives on the management and use of plant species for a traditional fishing trap, southern coast of São Paulo, Brazil

The cerco-fixo is an artisanal fishing trap widely used by traditional communities in the estuarine region of the southern coast of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The primary goal of the study was to investigate, through ethnobotanical and ecological approaches, the use of plant species by traditional fishermen to build the cerco-fixo at Cardoso Island State Park and Cananéia Island. Ethnobotanical data were collected through interviews, direct observation, plant collection and identification, and document analysis. An ecological evaluation was also done comparing five 20 × 20 m plots in a managed area to five 20 × 20m plots in an unmanaged area, both within arboreal sandy soil vegetation called restinga arbórea, found within the Brazilian Atlantic Forest domain. This study involved 34 fishermen living at Cardoso and Cananéia Islands. The fishermen know more than 90 Atlantic Forest plant species that can be used to build the cerco-fixo. Tree species from the family Myrtaceae were the most quoted in the interviews. With respect to the ecological evaluation, the cluster analyses showed greater heterogeneity in terms of floristic composition (i.e. greater floristic dissimilarity) within the plots of the managed area. The analyses of diversity showed a slightly higher species richness and slightly lower values for Shannon, Simpson, Hurlbert’s PIE and Evenness indices in the managed area (59 species; H′ = 3.28; 1/D = 10.77; E = 0.80; Hurlbert’s PIE = 0.91) compared to the unmanaged area (54 species; H′ = 3.39; 1/D = 20.21; E = 0.85; Hurlbert’s PIE = 0.95). The Hutcheson’s t test showed no significant difference between both areas’ Shannon diversity indices (t: −1.04; p: 0.30). These results are attributed to the greater dominance of the palm species Euterpe edulis Mart. in the managed area (28.2% of the trees sampled at this area; n = 118), which equals twice the percentage of individuals of the same species found for the unmanaged area (14.6% of the sampled trees; n = 48). We discuss the impact of the fishermen’s harvesting practices in the managed area with an emphasis on three main points: (1) the harvesting practices are likely not contributing to a decrease in diversity in the managed area; (2) the greater heterogeneity in terms of floristic composition found for the managed area may reflect a mosaic pattern created by the opening of small tree-gaps distributed across this area over the course of more than 50 years; (3) the disturbance promoted by the fishermen’s harvesting practices can be compared to natural disturbances of low impact that create mosaic patterns in tropical forests. This study emphasizes the prominence of the human dimension in ecological processes and the importance of considering the perspectives of local people when discussing the conservation of the natural environments in which these people live.     

计算流体动力学在模拟气升式环流反应器中的研究进展

计算流体动力学(CFD)是对气升式环流反应器进行数值模拟的重要手段.为此,本文综述了CFD模拟概况及气升环流反应器中流体数值模拟研究进展,总结了目前CFD模拟气升环流反应器存在的问题,并提出了进一步的研究方向.     

Forecasting population trend from the scaling pattern of occupancy

Forecasting the temporal trend of a focal species, its range expansion or retraction, provides crucial information regarding population viability. To this end, we require the accumulation of temporal records which is evidently time consuming. Progress in spatial data capturing has enabled rapid and accurate assessment of species distribution across large scales. Therefore, it would be appealing to infer the temporal trends of populations from the spatial structure of their distributions. Based on a combination of models from the fields of range dynamics, occupancy scaling and spatial autocorrelation, here I present a model for forecasting the population trend solely from its spatial distribution. Numerical tests using cellular automata confirm a positive correlation, as inferred from the model, between the temporal change in species range sizes and the exponent of the power-law scaling pattern of occupancy. The model is thus recommended for rapid estimation of species range dynamics from a single snapshot of its current distribution. Further applications in biodiversity conservation could provide a swift risk assessment, especially, for endangered and invasive species.