四川省土地承载力研究的系统动力学仿真模型

本文利用系统动力学理论,建立了四川省土地承载能力的动态仿真模型,模型中包括土地利用、人口、种植业、畜牧业、渔业等子系统,文中阐述了土地承载力模型的建立过程和方法,模拟了四川未来45年土地承载力系统的动态变化轨迹,提出了两种方案,并对其仿真结果进行了分析。     

Economic and Ecological Consequences of the Disappearance of Traditional Practices Related to Chestnut Groves

Based on an interdisciplinary study of nine localities, the authors analyse the role of human and local factors involved in the disappearance of chestnut groves. This analysis enables us to understand the significant elements involved, causes, restricting factors, potentialities which explain today's situation, and to hypothesise upon the evolution of the chestnut groves and the Southern Cevennes in the years to come. These hypotheses emphasise the necessary changes in attitudes and the extra research required to lead a positive future action in order to manage this territory in a rational way.     

Emission Inventories of Carbon-containing Greenhouse Gases in China and Technological Measures for Their Abatement

The report summarizes surveys on carbon inventories and initiatives on sustainable carbon cycling taken by the Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, where the authors work/worked. The first part of the report, which appeared in the preceding issue of this journal, deals with the concept of sustainable carbon cycling, the historic evolution of carbon cycling processes in China, carbon pool enhancement, value addition, carbon sequestration and carbon balance. This very paper, as the second part of the report, covers the results of carbon dynamics modeling, emission inventories of various carbon-containing greenhouse gases and their potential abatement measures.     

Forest Monitoring in Urbanized Areas

Long-term stationary investigations in permanent plots have been performed in forests of different types growing in Greater Moscow. Their results have made it possible to reveal the trends essential to the dynamics of these forests and make a prognosis of their condition in the near future. Moreover, they suggest that it is necessary to review some long-standing concepts concerning the processes of forest formation, relationships between the main forest species, etc.     

混沌理论：人类认识自然灾害的工具之一

自然灾害实际上是“人-自然系统”呈现为一种无序的状态.在人类面临的众多的自然灾害中,有一些特殊类型的自然灾害具有“混沌性态”的无序性.当(1)人-自然系统内出现混沌无序并超过某一临界值时,或(2)人-自然系统的某一纯粹的自然子系统出现混沌无序性且继而引发了整个人-自然系统的无序性时,危及人类生存,便产生了自然灾害。在人-自然系统中,导致混沌性自然灾害的条件至少有四种:(1)三个或三个以上作用源加上非线性关系;(2)某些变量的周期性解变得不稳定;(3)控制参量超过临界值导致周期倍增;(4)周期性扰动作用于非线性项.在此基础上,本文进一步提出了防灾或减灾的如下四条原则措施:在人—自然系统中,(1)减弱某些非线性机制;(2)隔离某些相互作用的要素及其子环路;(3)控制某些关键性参量的变化,(4)提高(或降低)某些重要变量的临界值.     

论城市减轻自然灾害系统工程

本文从系统论的观点说明城市自然灾害是地球自然灾害系统的一个组成部份,根据城市自然灾害的特点.对城市减轻自然灾害系统工程的初步设计进行了探讨.     

Stability of Isolated Populations of Terrestrial Mammals Inhabiting the Islands of the Peter the Great Bay,Sea of Japan

A comparative analysis of the dynamics of insular populations of terrestrial animals was performed. The stability of insular populations and the relationship between their viability and the type of dynamics are discussed.     

安全分析和评价方法论

本文对系统安全分析和评价方法进行了讨论。对它们的特点作了介绍和比较。同时给出了选用方法的要点.     

Field-scale modelling of carbon and nitrogen dynamics in soils amended with urban waste composts

Composting has emerged as a valuable route for the disposal of urban waste, with the prospect of applying composts on arable fields as organic amendments. Proper management of urban waste composts (UWC) requires a capacity to predict their impacts on carbon and nitrogen dynamics in the field, an issue in which simulation models are expected to play a prominent role.Here, we used a deterministic soil-crop model to simulate C–N dynamics in an arable field amended with three types of UWC (green waste and sludge, biodegradable waste, and solid waste), and a reference amendment (farmyard manure). The model is a version of CERES in which the soil C–N module was substituted with the NCSOIL model, whose microbiological parameters were determined from either laboratory incubation data or biochemical fractionation in a previous paper. CERES was tested against data from a field trial set up in 1998 in the Paris area, and managed as a maize (Zea mays L.)–wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) rotation. Comparison of observed and simulated data over the first 4 years of the field trial showed that CERES predicted the soil moisture and inorganic N dynamics reasonably well, as well as the variations in soil organic C. In particular, the parameterization of UWC organic matter from biochemical fractions achieved a similar fit as the parameterization based on incubation data. Wheat yields were also correctly predicted, but a systematic under-estimation of maize yields pointed at an under-estimation of spring and summer mineralization of N by CERES.Simulated N fluxes showed that the organic amendments induced an additional leaching ranging from 1 to 8 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, which can be related to the initial mineral N content of the amendments. After 4 years, the composts had mineralized 3–8% of their initial organic N content, depending on their stability. Composts with slower N release had higher N availability for the crops. CERES could thus be used to aid in selecting the timing of compost application, in relation to its stability, based on both environmental and agronomical criteria.     

生态城市动态指标体系的构建与分析

阐述了生态城市的内涵,并从城市的经济系统、社会系统、自然生态系统三个方面构建了生态城市的指标体系。 体系还体现了不同城市的地域特点,以及城市复合生态系统的动态平衡。最后以苏州市为例。分析了其生态化进程。