多情景视角下京津冀碳排放达峰预测与减排潜力

京津冀地区是中国核心经济区的重要组成部分,也是碳排放重点区域,其碳排放早日达峰对实现国家达峰目标尤为关键。通过分析碳排放及影响因素的关系,构建碳排放系统动力学模型,并设置六种情景方案,模拟预测其对北京、天津和河北碳达峰时间、峰值及减排潜力的影响。结果显示：（1）基准情景下,北京已经实现碳达峰,天津预计2023年碳达峰,而河北则难在2035年前达峰。（2）协调发展情景即综合调控政策,较单一措施情景,各地区碳减排效果最优;其中,北京2020—2030年碳排放较基准情景下降13.52%,天津碳达峰可提前至2021年,河北则可在2030年达到峰值。（3）单一措施情景下,环保情景对北京碳减排作用最显著,而节能减排情景则是实现天津与河北碳达峰的最佳发展模式。     

穿越城市生活区的天然气管道泄漏连锁爆燃后果评估研究

为评估城市天然气管道泄漏连锁爆燃事故后果,基于计算流体力学(CFD)方法构建穿越城市区域的天然气管道泄漏连锁爆燃后果预测与评估模型,以某城市生活区域为例,在城市生活区域建筑物内风场流动计算的基础上,模拟风场作用下可燃气体在城市建筑物空间内的运移规律,预测可燃气云的积聚区域;考虑意外点火的情况,计算城市生活区域内可燃气云爆燃灾害特征,预测爆燃超压、热辐射和高温的影响。研究结果表明：由于建筑物之间的阻挡与反射作用,建筑物下风向有明显的低风速区域,并在一定时间段后扩散过程趋于稳定;在爆燃火焰作用下,高温和热辐射会造成建筑物部分钢结构发生失效变形。     

Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics

The slug, Deroceras reticulatum, is one of the most important pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in UK and Europe. In this paper, a spatially explicit individual based model (IbM) is developed to study the dynamics of a population of D. reticulatum. The IbM establishes a virtual field within which slug spatial dynamics and changes in abundance were simulated. The strong dependence of slug behaviour on environmental conditions is built into the model, which is based upon previous work on the environmental dependence of slug population dynamics. The simulation results show that the IbM described well changes in the slug population. The IbM proved capable of describing slug populations over 3.5 years, including the presence, magnitude and duration of D. reticulatum population crashes within this period. Moreover, the model was capable of reproducing slug population dynamics at two sites, with distinct weather and some 100 km apart, with minor changes in initialisation values but no change in model structure and parameter values. A study of field heterogeneity, which might simulate various field designs, indicated the importance of spatial structuring to slug population dynamics and the utility of the IbM for simulating a range of potential spatial management treatments for slug control to maximise crop yield. This IbM system performs well and is currently being used as part of an integrated approach to predict slug population dynamics and control in the UK.     

济南南部山区水源涵养生态功能保护区生态环境评价指标体系研究

根据国家相关的生态考核指标,结合南部山区生态功能保护区实际情况,建立了该区域的评价指标体系,选取多层次权重分析决策法(AHP法),对区域的生态环境质量现状及可持续发展情况做出了定量评价。     

异戊二烯与O3反应体系中有机氢过氧化物和H2O2的产率研究

用双通道Ｈ２Ｏ２分析系统研究了室温条件下异戊二烯与Ｏ３气相暗反应体系中机氢过氧化物和Ｈ２Ｏ２的产率,３次实验测得有机氢过氧化物的产率分别为３．８％和４．３％和３．９％,平均为４．０％;Ｈ２Ｏ２的产率分别为２．２％、１．６％和１．８％,平均为１．９％,探讨了异茂二烯与Ｏ３反应体系中有机氢过氧化物和Ｈ２Ｏ２的生成机理。     

考虑源头减量的城市生活垃圾管理系统动力学研究

文章根据计划行为理论,使用系统动力学的方法,设计了考虑源头减量的城市生活垃圾管理的系统动力学模型.该模型动态地仿真了管理系统中宏观和微观的因素之间随时间推移的相互作用.通过分析管理模型中各个子模型的仿真结果,说明了源头减量对垃圾管理的重要意义.     

Relation between Occupancy and Abundance for a Territorial Species,the California Spotted Owl

Land and resource managers often use detection–nondetection surveys to monitor the populations of species that may be affected by factors such as habitat alteration, climate change, and biological invasions. Relative to mark‐recapture studies, using detection–nondetection surveys is more cost‐effective, and recent advances in statistical analyses allow the incorporation of detection probability, covariates, and multiple seasons. We examined the efficacy of using detection–nondetection data (relative to mark‐recapture data) for monitoring population trends of a territorial species, the California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis). We estimated and compared the finite annual rates of population change (λ_t) and the resulting realized population change (Δ_t) from both occupancy and mark‐recapture data collected over 18 years (1993–2010). We used multiseason, robust‐design occupancy models to estimate that territory occupancy declined during our study (Δ_t = 0.702, 95% CI 0.552–0.852) due to increasing territory extinction rates ( = 0.019 [SE 0.012]; = 0.134 [SE 0.043]) and decreasing colonization rates ( = 0.323 [SE 0.124]; = 0.242 [SE 0.058]). We used Pradel's temporal‐symmetry model for mark‐recapture data to estimate that the population trajectory closely matched the trends in territory occupancy (Δ_t = 0.725, 95% CI 0.445–1.004). Individual survival was constant during our study ( = 0.816 [SE 0.020]; = 0.815 [SE 0.019]), whereas recruitment declined slightly ( = 0.195 [SE 0.032]; = 0.160 [SE 0.023]). Thus, we concluded that detection–nondetection data can provide reliable inferences on population trends, especially when funds preclude more intensive mark‐recapture studies. Relación entre Ocupación y Abundancia en una Especie Territorial, el Búho Moteado de California     

广东省排污许可制的实践与思考

广东省是全国排污许可全覆盖任务最重的省份,其固定污染源数量居全国首位。本文系统梳理了广东省在排污许可管理实践中的经验做法,并在此基础上分析排污许可制度改革面临的问题,从"一证式"管理角度出发,提出进一步做好制度落实的思考与建议,为构建以排污许可制为核心的固定污染源监管体系提供参考和借鉴。     

关于海洋辐射环境监测体系建设的思考

通过对海洋辐射环境监测现状及存在问题的分析,提出了加强顶层设计,推进陆海统筹,逐步构建和完善海洋辐射环境监测管理体系、业务体系、人才体系、应急体系、保障体系、标准体系和合作体系的建议。     

混沌在种群动态中的应用

通过对种群数量变化模型和空间格局的分析，结合不稳定系统动力学的混沌现象，对种群动态中存在的混沌进行了粗略的探讨．认为CSR三角形中的S-对策者具有混沌的特点．由于生态场中因子具有混沌性质，及其相互作用过程中的不稳定系统动力学的影响，种群也具有混沌特点．