Logistic回归模型在尘肺发病预测与控制中的应用研究

目的 :探讨 L ogistic回归模型在尘肺发病预测与控制中的应用。方法 :采用多元Logistic回归统计方法建立粉尘作业工人的接尘工龄 (ET)、工龄平均浓度 (AEC)、粉尘毒性 (T)三因素与尘肺发病概率的回归模型。结果 :尘肺发病预测与控制的回归模型为 :P=1/ { 1+ exp[- (- 5.4 70 7+ 0 .0 94 7ET+ 0 .0 0 2 4 AEC+ 1.9784 T) ]} ,接尘工龄等三因素对尘肺发病影响的比数比分别为 :1.0 994 (ET)、1.0 0 2 4 (AEC)和 7.2 310 (T)。结论 :所建立尘肺发病预测与控制的回归模型与所研究人群的符合率较高 ,对今后预防尘肺发生的科学化管理与决策有较好的实用性和应用价值。     

Heavy metal exposure reduces hatching success of Acartia pacifica resting eggs in the sediment

The potential effects of three heavy metals （Cu, Pb, and Cd） on hatching success ofAcartia pacifica resting eggs in the sediment of Xiamen Bay were experimentally investigated. The number ofA. pacifica nauplii hatched from the sediment sharply decreased with the increase of metal concentration and exposure time from 3 to 30 d. An increase of the Cu concentration from 34.8 to 348 mg/kg, reduced the number of hatched nauplii by 46.6%-100%. An increase of the Pb concentration from 75.2 to 752 mg/kg, reduced the number of hatched nauplii by 21.4%-78.9%. An increase of the Cd concentration from 0.68 to 6.8 mg/kg, reduced the number of hatched nauplii by 31.6%-94.7%. The number of nauplii also significantly decreased with the increase of mixed-metal concentration and exposure time in the mixed-metal test. Trimmed Spearman-Karber analysis gave sediment metal 72-h LC50 values of 1.25 mmol Cu/kg, 1.73 mmol Pb/kg, and 0.054 mmol Cd/kg, which suggested that Cd was the most toxic to A. pacifica resting eggs in the three tested metals. The results indicate that heavy metals with higher concentrations can reduce recruitment of A. pacifica nauplii from benthic resting eggs to planktonic population.     

A GIS-based approach for the long-term prediction of human health risks at contaminated sites

A Health Index/Risk Evaluation Tool (HIRET) has been developed for the integration of risk assessment and spatial planning using GIS capabilities. The method is meant to assist decision makers and site owners in the evaluation of potential human health risk with respect to land use. Human health risk defined as the potential adverse effects on human life or health is generally accepted as the most important aspect for site assessment and planning of remediation strategies. It concerns polluted sites that endanger human health on one hand and derelict land that does not cause the immediate risk on the other hand. In current state-of-the-art risk-assessment, long-term spatial and temporal changes of risks, in relation to changes in contamination patterns and land use functions, are not taken into account. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the methodology developed for human health risk assessment in aspect of spatial and temporal domain. HIRET was developed as an extension for ESRI software ArcView 3.2 and allows performing dynamic human health risk assessment in long-term period, which is relevant for land use planning. The paper illustrates how such methodology can assist in environmental decision-making to enhance the efficiency of contaminated land management. A case study of contaminated site is given showing how data can be used within a GIS framework to produce maps indicating areas of potential human health risk.     

Euro Chlor Risk Assessment for the Marine Environment Osparcom Region: North Sea - 1,1,2-Trichloroethane

This risk assessment on 1,1,2-trichloroethane (T112) was carried out specifically for the marine environment, according to the methodology laid down in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and the Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1997). The study consists of the collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of the "predicted environmental concentrations" (PEC) and the "predicted no effect concentrations" (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 22 studies for fish, 45 studies for invertebrates and 9 studies for algae have been evaluated. Both acute and chronic toxicity studies have been taken into account and the appropriate assessment factors have been used to define a PNEC value of 300 µg/l. Most of the available monitoring data apply to rivers and estuaries and were used to calculate PECs. The most recent data (1991-1995) support a typical PEC of 0.01 µg T112/l water and a worst case PEC of 5 µg T112/l water. The calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give a safety margin of 60 to 30,000 between the predicted no effect concentration and the exposure concentration. Additional evaluation of environmental fate and bioaccumulation characteristics showed that no concern is expected for food chain accumulation.     

Euro Chlor Risk Assessment for the Marine Environment Osparcom Region: North Sea - 1,2-Dichloroethane

This risk assessment on 1,2-dichloroethane (EDC) was carried out specifically for the marine environment, according to the methodology laid down in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and the Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1997). The study consists of the collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of the "predicted environmental concentrations" (PEC) and the "predicted no effect concentrations" (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 21 studies for fish, 17 studies for invertebrates and 7 studies for algae have been evaluated. Both acute and chronic toxicity studies have been taken into account and the appropriate assessment factors have been used to define a PNEC value of 1100 µg/l. Most of the available monitoring data apply to rivers and estuaries and were used to calculate PECs. The most recent data (1991-1995) support a typical PEC of 0.5 µg EDC/l and a worst case PEC of 6.4 µg EDC/l. The calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give a safety margin of 170 to 2200 between the predicted no effect concentration and the exposure concentration. Additional evaluation of environmental fate and bioaccumulation characteristics showed that no concern is expected for food chain accumulation.     

Euro Chlor Risk Assessment for the Marine Environment Osparcom Region: North Sea - Chloroform

This risk assessment on chloroform was carried out specifically for the marine environment, according to the methodology laid down in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and the Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1997). The study consists of the collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of the "predicted environmental concentrations" (PEC) and the "predicted no effect concentrations" (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 23 studies for fish, 17 studies for invertebrates and 10 studies for algae have been evaluated. Both acute and chronic toxicity studies have been taken into account and the appropriate assessment factors have been used to define a typical PNEC value of 72 µg/l. Due to limitations of the studies evaluated, a worst PNEC of 1 µg/l could also be used. Most of the available monitoring data apply to rivers and estuaries and were used to calculate PECs. The most recent data (1991-1995) support a typical PEC of 0.2 µg chloroform per litre of water and a worst case PEC of 5 to 11.5 µg chloroform per litre of water. The calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give a safety margin of 6 to 360 between the predicted no effect concentration and the exposure concentrations. A worst case ratio, however, points to a potential risk for sensitive species. Refinement of the assessment is necessary by looking for more data. Additional evaluation of environmental fate and bioaccumulation characteristics showed that no concern is expected for food chain accumulation.     

Euro Chlor Risk Assessment for the Marine Environment Osparcom Region: North Sea - Tetrachloroethylene

This risk assessment on tetrachloroethylene (PER) was carried out specifically for the marine environment, according to the methodology laid down in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and the Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1997). The study consists of the collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of the "predicted environmental concentrations" (PEC) and the "predicted no effect concentrations" (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 18 studies for fish, 13 studies for invertebrates and 8 studies for algae have been evaluated. Both acute and chronic toxicity studies have been taken into account and the appropriate assessment factors have been used to define a PNEC value of 51 µg/l. Most of the available monitoring data apply to rivers and estuary waters and were used to calculate PECs. The most recent data (1991-1995) support a typical PEC of 0.2 µg PER/l water and a worst case PEC of 2.5 µg PER/l water. The calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give a safety margin of 20 to 250 between the predicted no effect concentration and the exposure concentration. Additional evaluation of environmental fate and bioaccumulation characteristics showed that no concern is expected for food chain accumulation.     

Assessing health risk from benzene pollution in an urban area

A health hazard, specifically the leukaemia risk, is evaluatedfrom different sources of benzene exposure with relation to apopulation living in an urban area of Italy. The population exposure is calculated for a reference year by sexand lyfestyle, with respect to smokers and non smokers. Potentialhealth risk is therefore quantified by means of mathematicalmodels and the relative significance of the different sources is described. The results of the analysis are useful for the identification ofappropriate risk reduction strategies to minimize exposure, inparticular when resulting from lifestyle and personal activities.     

Uranium, Thorium, and Potassium in Soils Along the Shore of Lake Issyk-Kyol in the Kyrghyz Republic

The Kyrghyz Republic, located in the southeastern region ofthe former Soviet Union, maintains a population of more thanone-half-million persons and is heavily dependent on LakeIssyk-Kyol, both to draw tourists to the area and for itsutilization by some as a food and recreation source. Historical surveys, conducted primarily for geologicalexploration, have indicated that localized areas ofshoreline on Lake Issyk-Kyol have relative radiation levelsin excess of ambient background by as much as a factor often. Uranium mining operations in the mountains borderingthe lake to the south may have resulted in the contaminationof a number of areas on the lake's southern shore. Concentrations of naturally occurring uranium, thorium, andpotassium are present in these soils in elevated quantities. This paper presents the results of an investigation of soilconcentrations along the shoreline of Lake Issyk-Kyolrelative to previously discovered areas of high exposurerate.     

Development and Application of Computer Simulation Tools for Ecological Risk Assessment

Based on a review of available models for ecological risk estimation, most are site-specific and their applications are limited. However, general models, which can be easily adapted to other sites, remain few, in addition, they are simple and associated with significant uncertainties. In this paper, an approach is introduced for an ecological risk assessment (ERA) model that can be modified for site-specific conditions. Using computer simulation as a screening tool for ecological risk assessment can assist environmental managers and policy decision-makers in the planning and implementation of potentially highly focused assessments and remediation, should the ERA dictate the need. The model was integrated with a Windows-based interface and interactive database management system (DBMS) as a user-friendly software package. In addition, based on trophic sources, a food web has been integrated into the framework of the DBMS. In an effort to evaluate the model, a case study was implemented to characterize the effects on an ecosystem of replacing electroplated chromium coatings with sputtered tantalum at U.S. Army Yuma and Aberdeen Proving Grounds. Potential exposure pathways included ingestion, inhalation, and dermal absorption for terrestrial animals; root and foliar uptake for plants; and direct absorption for aquatic species. Overall, results showed that the most significant exposure resulted from molybdenum and hexavalent chromium, which posed higher risks to select aquatic and terrestrial species at both sites. On the other hand, tantalum (with vanadium as the surrogate) resulted in the least risk to all receptors within the studied areas. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that soil-water distribution coefficients have a significant impact on the results. Based on the results, neither molybdenum nor chromium are recommended as a coating in gun barrels, and further study would be essential to address any affected firing range area. Tantalum is recommended for use, although for those species receiving a slight adverse risk, field investigations that include receptor sampling maybe necessary once soil/sediment and water sampling validates projected concentrations.