社会经济活动对太湖流域的生态影响分析

采用系统分析的方法,围绕社会经济压力、水体污染负荷以及水体环境状态3个方面,建立社会经济活动对太湖流域生态影响的评价指标体系,利用层次分析法计算各指标因子的权重.根据太湖流域2005和2006年的相关数据,以MATLAB为工具,运用模糊模式识别方法进行流域生态综合评价,分析社会经济活动对太湖流域的生态影响.研究结果表明,太湖流域的社会经济活动对湖泊生态的影响较大,除了点源污染以外,面源污染也是太湖流域生态环境问题的重要根源.     

大型水生植物对东太湖河湖交汇区矿质元素分布特征的影响

河流是湖泊物质运移的重要通道,对湖泊生态系统有重要的影响.各矿质元素及营养物质迁移、累积使得河湖交汇处成为重金属元素和营养物质的汇库.通过对太湖的入湖河流及其与太湖交汇区域不同植物群落沉积物中矿质元素、有机质含量分析.结果表明:河流表层沉积物重金属元素含量是其与太湖交汇区表层沉积物重金属元素含量的4～5倍.而元素间的相关系数因不同的生态环境存在差异,且P、Ca、Cu、Sr与其它元素间在河湖交汇区及定向河道均无显著相关关系;而SOM在河湖交汇区有强相关,而在河流中则否.     

焉耆盆地水污染物总量控制研究

以控制博斯腾湖盐污染、有机污染和防止富营养化为目标,分区分阶段提出焉耆盆地主要水污染物的总量控制目标和方案,并进行了投资和目标可达性分析。      

TRANSPORT OF DIAZINON IN THE SAN JOAQUIN RIVER BASIN,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Most of the application of the organophosphate insecticide diazinon in the San Joaquin River Basin occurs in winter to control wood-boring insects in dormant almond orchards. A federalstate collaborative study found that diazinon accounted for most of the observed toxicity of San Joaquin River water in February 1993. Previous studies focused mainly on west-side inputs to the San Joaquin River. In this 1994 study, the three major east-side tributaries to the San Joaquin River - the Merced, Tuolumne, and Stanislaus rivers - and a downstream site on the San Joaquin River were sampled throughout the hydrographs of a late January and an early February storm. In both storms, the Tuolumne River had the highest concentrations of diazinon and transported the largest load of the three tributaries. The Stanislaus River was a small source in both storms. On the basis of previous storm sampling and estimated travel times, ephemeral west-side creeks probably were the main diazinon source early in the storms, whereas the Tuolumne and Merced rivers and east-side drainages directly to the San Joaquin River were the main sources later. Although 74 percent of diazinon transport in the San Joaquin River during 1991–1993 occurred in January and February, transport during each of the two 1994 storms was only 0.05 percent of the amount applied during preceding dry periods. Nevertheless, some of the diazinon concentrations in the San Joaquin River during the January storm exceeded 0.35 μ/L, a concentration shown to be acutely toxic to water fleas. On the basis of this study and previous studies, diazinon concentrations and streamflow are highly variable during January and February storms, and frequent sampling is required to evaluate transport in the San Joaquin River Basin.     

基于Kriging插值的1961~2005年淮河流域降水时空演变特征分析

利用淮河流域4省170个气象站点1961~2005年的降水观测数据,采用Kriging法对淮河流域各季及年降水量进行了插值,得到了1 km×1 km降水栅格序列。在此基础上,对淮河流域降水的时空格局及其变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：淮河流域降水量的空间分布基本呈南高北低、山区多于平原、近海多于内陆的格局。近45 a来淮河流域降水量的年际波动较为强烈,而变化趋势不显著。流域内汛期和年降水量的年代际变化则具有明显的阶段性,主要表现在20世纪90年代前基本为下降趋势,2000年后明显上升。当前,淮河流域正处于降水的高气候变率时期。45 a来,降水的空间格局发生了一定的变化,表现在淮河中上游和干流沿岸地区的降水量升高,而流域东北部的降水则呈下降趋势     

应用MODIS监测太湖蓝藻水华时空分布特征

利用波段比值算法对经几何校正和大气矫正后的MODIS/Terra L 1B数据进行处理,获取了2004～2010年天气晴好条件下太湖及各分湖区蓝藻水华的面积与时空分布,并在此基础上对太湖蓝藻水华的时空变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：2004～2010年太湖地区共暴发蓝藻水华539次;2004～2007年太湖蓝藻水华首次暴发时间逐年提前,暴发频次逐年增加,2007～2010年太湖蓝藻水华首次暴发时间逐年推迟,暴发频次逐年减少;2004～2010年3～8月份蓝藻水华暴发次数有增加的趋势,8～12月份蓝藻水华暴发次数有减小的趋势;2004～2010年太湖蓝藻水华主要发生在北部和西部湖区,东部和南部湖区发生次数较少,各分湖区蓝藻水华暴发概率大小的顺序为：西部沿岸>大太湖>梅梁湾>南部沿岸>竺山湖>贡湖     

太湖流域（苏州片）水质同步监测调查与评价

综合分析了太湖流域（苏州片）达标排放前后的水质变化情况,讨论了达标排放与水质变化之间的关系,评价了水污染控制的效果。     

The Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on Annual Floods in the Rivers of Western Canada

We analyzed annual peak flow series from 127 naturally flowing or naturalized streamflow gauges across western Canada to examine the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on annual flood risk, which has been previously unexamined in detail. Using Spearman's rank correlation ρ and permutation tests on quantile‐quantile plots, we show that higher magnitude floods are more likely during the negative phase of the PDO than during the positive phase (shown at 38% of the stations by Spearman's rank correlations and at 51% of the stations according to the permutation tests). Flood frequency analysis (FFA) stratified according to PDO phase suggests that higher magnitude floods may also occur more frequently during the negative PDO phase than during the positive phase. Our results hold throughout much of this region, with the upper Fraser River Basin, the Columbia River Basin, and the North Saskatchewan River Basin particularly subject to this effect. Our results add to other researchers' work questioning the wholesale validity of the key assumption in FFA that the annual peak flow series at a site is independently and identically distributed. Hence, knowledge of large‐scale climate state should be considered prior to the design and construction of infrastructure.     

高精度区域气候模式对淮河流域降水的模拟评估

利用CCLM（COSMO model in Climate Mode）高精度区域气候模式输出的淮河流域逐日降水数据,计算了年降水量、降水强度、大雨日数和强降水量4个降水指数,首先通过与1961～2010年流域内气象站点的降水观测数据进行对比,检验CCLM模式对淮河流域降水的模拟能力。结果表明,CCLM模式能够很好的模拟淮河流域降水的年际变化和空间分布特征,在4个降水指数中,对年降水量的模拟效果最佳。CCLM模式在SRES-A1B（中排放）情景下的降水预估数据显示,2011～2050年淮河流域降水整体将呈增加趋势,增幅在70 mm之内,降水量年际变率较大,波动范围达-40%～60%,很有可能造成未来旱涝灾害的频繁发生。空间分布上,流域南部和中部在未来40年内降水呈增加趋势,增幅不超过67%,其他区域则呈减少趋势,减幅不超过106%