水体增温对浮游植物群落结构及其生态学特性影响的研究

本文对受河南平顶山姚孟热电厂温排水影响的白龟山水库的浮游植物群落的情况进行了野外调查,并在室内对浮游植物的群落结构及其生态学特征进行了模拟增温试验。试验结果表明:水体增温对水库浮游植物的种群组成、优势种的优势度、藻类密度和生物量均有影响。影响的程度与环境固有的水温及增温强度有关。室内增温模拟试验还表明:连续的增温对藻类的光合色素含量和光合作用强度均有影响。      

水温对氧转移速率的影响研究

通过对上澳塘水体的曝气充氧实验,研究了温度对氧转移速率的影响,测定了温度系数,为上澳塘水体曝气净化的工程实践提供了可靠的技术参数。      

隧道半横向排烟模式下不同排烟口分布的温度场数值模拟研究

结合某过江盾构隧道,基于三维流体动力学模拟仿真软件平台,建立三维仿真模型,研究火灾发生在隧道盾构段典型区段时,排烟开口在火源上下游不同的分布模式时烟气层的温度场分布。通过分析模拟结果可知:随着火源上游排烟开口逐步增加,火源上游烟气逆流长度和蔓延速度都相对稳定而后又逐步增长,火源下游的烟气蔓延长度先减小而后又基本趋于稳定,下游烟气沉降高度则有所升高;火源位置处正上方温度则随着上游排烟开口的个数逐步增加而逐渐升高。而从其他的排烟开口变化模式模拟结果可知:随着排烟开口面积或者开口间距的逐步增大,烟气蔓延的速度先增加而后又逐步减小,且开口间距为30m左右时烟气蔓延速度相对较慢;排烟开口宽高比对烟气蔓延影响较小。所获得的结论将有助于相关类型工程的设计和管理。     

油池火作用下钢管混凝土柱温度分布研究

在开敞空间条件下利用油池火模拟不同的火灾场景,对火源燃烧阶段和燃烧结束后钢管混凝土柱的温度变化进行研究。测量了燃料质量变化和钢管混凝土柱的温度分布等参数,分析不同火灾场景下钢管混凝土柱轴向、横截面的温度变化,并以实验工况HS3为例进行深入分析,同时分析了火源的燃烧时间、热释放速率对钢管混凝土柱温度场分布的影响。研究结果表明,钢管混凝土柱纵向温度分布与横向温度分布一样都存在明显的温度梯度,其表面钢管温度变化受火场热释放速率影响较大,而内部混凝土的温度变化则主要受火场持续时间的影响。     

生物炭对土壤水肥热效应的影响试验研究

本文通过野外大田小区试验以番茄（Lycopersicon esculentum Mill）为供试作物,通过在土壤中施加不同含量生物炭（Biochar）研究生物炭对土壤含水率、有机碳、速效养分含量和土壤温度的影响,从而寻求一个较为合适的施用量,为生物炭在内蒙古地区的大面积推广提供科学的理论依据。试验共设5个处理,3个重复：不施加生物炭（CK）,生物炭使用量分别为10 t·hm^-2（A）,20 t·hm^-2（B）,40 t·hm^-2（C）,60 t·hm^-2（D）,在各生育期取土样测定土壤含水率、有机碳、速效养分含量,并在各生育期连续3天测定土壤地表温度。试验结果表明：不同处理下土壤含水率随生物炭施用量增加呈先增加后减小的趋势,且均高于对照组,其中施炭量为40 t·hm^-2处理的土壤含水率增幅最明显,0～10 cm土层各生育期土壤含水率较对照组最大增幅分别为20.8%、13.7%、21.8%,10～20 cm土层各生育期土壤含水率较对照组最大增幅分别为33.9%、17.1%、21.3%;不同处理下土壤温度随着生物炭施用量的增加而升高,两者具有显著的正相关关系,各生育期各处理土壤地表温度较对照组最大增幅分别为58.1%、31.3%、55.8%;不同处理土壤有机碳含量随着生物炭施用量的增加而增大,番茄各生育期各处理土壤有机碳含量较对照组最大增幅分别为80.9%、62.7%、63.9%;不同处理土壤中碱解氮、速效钾、速效磷含量均随生物炭施用量的增加而呈现先增大后减小的趋势,且均大于对照组,各生育期各处理土壤碱解氮较对照组最大增幅分别为92.7%、45.7%、106.5%,速效磷最大增幅分别为120.1%、39.3%、250.4%,速效钾最大增幅分别为86.2%、118.5%、203.4%。综上所述,生物炭对于砂壤土具有保水、保肥、保温的特性,对于提高土壤水肥利用效率,增加土壤有机碳具有重要的作用,而且通过试验验证40 t·hm^-2的施?     

Climate change,risk management and the end of Nomadic pastoralism

Mobility has been argued to be the single factor explaining why some pastoralists do relatively well during extreme climatic events, while others do not, because mobility works by taking advantage of the spatial and temporal structure of resource failure by moving away from scarcity towards abundance. In spite of this, a common governmental management strategy is to resettle pastoral populations and thereby significantly reduce mobility. By revealing the underlying logic of mobility for Tibetan pastoralists, this paper questions official policy that aims at privatizing communally owned rangelands since it reduces pastoral flexibility and access to key resources. This is especially pertinent in the face of climate change. While little is known as to the specifics of how climate change will affect nomadic pastoralists, environmental variability is likely to increase. Consequently, policies resulting in decreased mobility may exacerbate the negative effects of climate change because of a positive feedback between climate and negative density dependence.     

Effects of temperature variation on TSD in turtle (C. picta) populations

We formulate a two-sex model of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) for a freshwater turtle (C. picta) population. The aim is to understand how environmental temperature variations and nest heat conduction properties affect the long term dynamics of the population. This is a key to understanding how global temperature changes may affect their survival. With stochastic inputs of ambient temperature and solar radiation, the model uses the heat equation to determine the temperature in the egg layer in the nest; in turn, this determines the sex ratio in the egg clutch using a variable degree-day model. Finally, a nonlinear Leslie type, stage-based, two-sex model, is used to determine the long term male and female populations. A two-sex model is required because of different development rates for males and females. The model is flexible enough to enable other researchers to examine the effects of temperature variation variations on other species with TSD, e.g., crocodilians, reptilians, as well as other turtle species. It can be adapted to study effects of nest location, soil type, rain events, different incubation periods, and density effects, for example, the dependence of the mating function on the ratio of males to females and each’s contribution to the sex of hatchlings. Modifications can be easily made to fit a specific life history traits. The model is a beginning step in understanding the long term, high fitness shown by many reptile species with TSD, and it may suggest to experimentalists what data may be relevant to these issues; it can also be useful to wildlife managers in developing strategies for intervention if needed. Among the principal findings are that temperature variability and detailed nest heat conduction properties may buffer projected negative effects on a population.     

An optimal level of dust explosion risk management: Framework and application

The current research provides guidance on the prevention and mitigation of dust explosion using a Quantitative Risk Management Framework (QRMF). Using concepts drawn from previous studies, the framework consists of three main steps: (i) a new combined safety management protocol, (ii) the use of DESC (Dust Explosion Simulation Code) and FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) to assess explosion consequences and likelihood, respectively, and (iii) application of the hierarchy of controls (inherent, engineered and procedural safety). QRMF assessment of an industrial case study showed that the original process was at high risk. DESC simulations and Probit equations determined the destructive percentages. FTAs revealed high probabilities of explosion occurrence; in addition, detailed individual and societal risks calculations were made, before and after the framework was applied. Based on the hierarchy of controls technique, the framework showed significant risk reduction to the point where the residual risk was acceptable for the process.     

基于技术扩散的全社会能源效率空间条件收敛分析

我国各地区能源效率存在明显的差距,如何缩小地区能源效率差距成为了能源经济领域的热点问题.本文依据2000-2010年中国30省面板数据,运用空间误差条件β收敛模型分析了技术扩散对全社会能源效率收敛的影响,研究结果表明:①2000-2010年间,全社会能源效率呈现2000-2002、2002-2005和2005-2010的三阶段特征,经历上升、下降、再上升的变化过程,其中,2005-2010年提升速度最快,其经验值得借鉴;②全社会能源效率的绝对β收敛呈现由收敛至发散的三阶段变化过程;③全社会能源效率存在显著的空间滞后现象,其增长率的空间相依性不显著,但空间因素对全社会能源效率β收敛的正面影响有加强的趋势;④技术扩散从总体上使全社会能源效率的收敛速度提高1.8倍以上,且影响程度逐渐增强;⑤外商直接投资有助于提升全社会能源效率及其收敛速度;⑥不同时段的技术扩散对全社会能源效率的影响不同,且技术引进和国内技术市场技术流入对收敛的作用不显著.因此,引进外资是缩小地区间全社会能源效率差距的重要措施.     

Deterministic approach to the study of the interaction predator-prey in a chemostat with predator mutual interference. Implications for the paradox of enrichment

Our understanding of predator-prey systems has progressed in recent decades mainly due to the ability to test models in chemostats. This study aimed to develop a deterministic model using differential equations to reproduce the dynamics of the interaction of a predator and a prey in a two stage chemostat focusing in the proposed previous prey dependent model of Fussmann et al. (2000) [Fussmann, G.F., Ellner, S.P., Shertzer, K.W., Hairston Jr., N.G., 2000. Crossing the Hopf bifurcation in a live predator-prey system. Science 290, 1358-1360]. The main problem with that model, but parameterized with the values obtained in this study (particularly the concentration of nutrient), was that the temporal trajectory of both the prey and the predator showed very high peaks that eventually led to the extinction of predator in all cases. In the same way the experimental time series obtained in this study does not exhibit the behavior predicted by the model of Fussman et al. On the contrary, as prey density increases, the system actually becomes more stable. Finally, the model that best explained the behavior of the predator and prey in the chemostat, at medium to high dilution rates, was the ratio dependent (algae-nitrogen) model with mutual interference measured in the chemostat (rotifer-alga) and that incorporated the age structure of the predator. Qualitative analysis of the dynamic behavior enabled evaluation of coexistence at equilibrium, coexistence on limit cycles, extinction of the predator or extinction of both populations.