A new method for predicting vegetation distributions using decision tree analysis in a geographic information system

Decision tree analysis was used to predict the distribution of forest communities in an area on the south coast of New South Wales, Australia. The analysis was carried out using a geographical information system environmental data base of those topographic and geological variables thought to influence the distribution of vegetation and derived from cartographic sources. The resulting maps of forest communities are of a resolution sufficient to delimit individual forest stands and contain much ecological information.     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

基于ＧＩＳ的乌鲁木齐市ＮＯ２ 时空分布特征

以乌鲁木齐市2008-2012年7个空气自动监测点位小时浓度数据为基础数据,利用ArcGIS 技术,分析了其NO2年变化、月变化、日变化、空间分布等污染特征。结果表明,NO2年均值为0．065～0．068 mg/m3,基本保持稳定;NO2呈明显的季节变化,冬季污染较重,春节、秋季次之,夏季空气质量相对较好;NO2呈现“单峰型”的日变化特征,夜间NO2明显高于白天;不同季节 NO2的空间分布特征不同,与交通、供暖、人口密度、地理位置密切相关;NO2分布与风速相关关系明显,而与气温、湿度的关系为非线性。     

Comparative performance of generalized additive models and multivariate adaptive regression splines for statistical modelling of species distributions

Two statistical modelling techniques, generalized additive models (GAM) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), were used to analyse relationships between the distributions of 15 freshwater fish species and their environment. GAM and MARS models were fitted individually for each species, and a MARS multiresponse model was fitted in which the distributions of all species were analysed simultaneously. Model performance was evaluated using changes in deviance in the fitted models and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calculated using a bootstrap assessment procedure that simulates predictive performance for independent data. Results indicate little difference between the performance of GAM and MARS models, even when MARS models included interaction terms between predictor variables. Results from MARS models are much more easily incorporated into other analyses than those from GAM models. The strong performance of a MARS multiresponse model, particularly for species of low prevalence, suggests that it may have distinct advantages for the analysis of large datasets. Its identification of a parsimonious set of environmental correlates of community composition, coupled with its ability to robustly model species distributions in relation to those variables, can be seen as converging strongly with the purposes of traditional ordination techniques.     

HEAVY METAL DISTRIBUTION AND SPECIATION IN THE NORTHERN ADRIATIC SEA

In the present study the concentrations of cobalt, copper, iron, manganese, zinc were analysed and the speciation of copper and zinc performed, with a summer and winter sampling, for two areas in the Northern Adriatic Sea and crossing at the farthest zones of the Po river-sea water interface. Results show that when salinity increases the concentrations of all investigated metals (with the exception of cobalt) present some degree of biogeochemical cycling. Copper is the element whose dissolved phase has the highest importance in metal transport across the salinity gradient. Results of speciation analysis demonstrate that the presence of excess amounts (5-8 fold) of unbound ligands confers a buffering capacity for potential inputs of dissolved metals into the Northern Adriatic Sea. The speciation of both copper and zinc in the dissolved phase was dominated by organic complexation.     

大伙房水库生态系统动态变化遥感分析

在2000年、2005年和2010年遥感数据支持下,通过对生态系统类型的辨识,获得大伙房水库饮用水源保护区生态系统类型数据,并从生态系统组成、变化及变化特征3个方面对其进行深入分析。结果表明:近10年来,大伙房水库饮用水保护区内森林和水体与湿地减少,人工生态系统增加,面积变化相对较小。自然生态系统的破坏在2000~2005年间比2005~2010年间严重,且集中在一级保护区外,以准保护区内居多。     

六磊塘2005～2012年水质变化趋势分析

采用综合污染指数法,评价了六磊塘2005～2012年间在丰水期、平水期、枯水期和全年的水质达标情况,计算了主要污染物的污染负荷,得到了水质的时间变化特征。结果表明,2005—2012年,六磊塘水质呈现改善趋势,水质整体呈现轻到中度污染;枯水期水质污染最重,丰水期和平水期水质污染相对较轻;各主要污染物中,氨氮的污染负荷最大,五日生化需氧量和高锰酸盐指数的污染负荷最小。研究结果为六磊塘的地表水质监测和污染防治等工作提供了重要依据。     

淀山湖沉积物中硒的存在形态及分布特征

对淀山湖沉积物中硒的存在形态，水平分布及垂直分布进行了探讨，研究了在自然条件下沉积物中硒的分布特征。结果表明淀山湖沉积物中硒的有机物－硫化物结合态及元素态是订的存在形态，占３３％￣５７％，且各形态硒的分布与环境因素密切相关。