中国新克强指数的构建与实证分析

随着中国经济进入新常态,英国《经济学人》杂志构建的克强指数已无法反映中国经济的全貌,如何客观地反映中国经济的真实状况成为一个迫切需要解决的现实问题。为更好地测度中国经济运行的真实状况,本文根据李克强总理提出的"未来会更加关注就业、居民收入和生态环境的持续改善"的愿景,在原有克强指数的基础上,增加年末就业人员数、农村居民家庭人均纯收入、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入等就业和收入方面的指标,使用中国1995—2015年的相关数据和层次分析法构建了克强指数的修订版本即新克强指数,并将新克强指数与GDP增长率、克强指数进行了比较,发现新克强指数在反映中国经济波动和经济整体运行状态上有更为优良的性质。与GDP增长率相比,新克强指数克服了服务业比重提高带来的熨平效应,进而灵敏地反映中国经济波动情况,并对异常事件更加具有敏感性。相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数破除了因中国在第二产业上存在失衡性发展所带来的经济波动的杠杆效应,降低了经济增长中的虚假成分,从而与中国经济运行的整体关联度更为密切。此外,相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数在反映经济景气方面有着较好的时效性与关联性。采用时差相关分析法对新克强指数与宏观经济指标之间的关系进行分析,发现新克强指数在反映第一产业增加值、第三产业增加值、最终消费支出、资本形成总额、对外贸易、通货膨胀等方面具有优势。研究表明:新克强指数是更适宜测度中国经济的多元评价指标,为测度中国经济运行的真实状况提供了科学的参考依据。     

Emerging dynamics of environmental governance in northern post-productivist regions

The northern, resource-dependent regions of Canada have long faced distinctive social, economic, and environmental challenges and vulnerabilities. However, these regions and communities increasingly find themselves in a transitional and post-productivist context – the implications of which are largely unclear. Therefore, research is needed to identify the current and emerging challenges facing such regions and how environmental governance and planning must adjust to meet these challenges. We utilise the case study of the Northeast Superior region of Ontario to identify and analyse the dynamics developing in post-productivist, resource-dependent regions and what the implications may be for environmental governance. Several key themes and issues that emerged include an increasingly pluralistic context, new regionalism and north–south tensions, First Nation initiatives and power imbalances, and northern identities which are tied to ideas of historical resource-dependence, remoteness, and intimate and complex links to the landscape, all of which inform environmental governance and sustainability debates. As a result, the Northeast Superior case provides insight into these ongoing dynamics which encompass individuals, government, industry, organisations, and the landscape, with the resultant lessons being transferable to initiatives in other northern, remote, and circumpolar regions.     

新型烟囱的节能效果与分析

介绍了一座80m烟囱由径向进气方式改为弧形切向进气的工程案例。列出了烟囱改造前后引风机运行一日的能耗数据,对比分析得出采用弧形烟道具有一定的节能效果,探讨了采用弧形烟道烟囱降低能耗的基本原因。     

混凝-超滤短流程工艺处理北方水库原水简

采用混凝-超滤膜短流程工艺对大伙房水库原水进行处理,考察其除污染性能和膜污染情况,并对该短流程工艺参数进行优化。结果表明,当利用超滤膜直接过滤原水时,膜污染较重,并且对污染物质的去除率较低;而采用混凝-超滤短流程工艺时,膜污染得到一定程度上的缓解;当絮凝剂投加量为7 mg/L、膜清洗周期为30 min时,对浊度、COD_Mn和UV₂₅₄的去除率分别为95.61%、40.42%和37.12%,出水水质能够满足生活饮用水卫生标准。     

西安市2013年PM_(2.5)浓度变化分析研究

全面分析2013年西安市13个国控环境空气质量自动监测子站PM2.5监测数据。结果表明:2013年西安市环境空气中PM2.5年均值为105μg/m3,超过《环境空气质量标准》(GB 3095—2012)二级要求(35μg/m3)200.0%,污染较严重;西安市各子站PM2.5月均值总体呈两边高、中间低的"V"型趋势,全市及各子站PM2.5月均值分别为44~206、32~275μg/m3;采暖期(上半年采暖期为1—3月,下半年采暖期为11—12月)、非采暖期(4—10月)PM2.5平均值分别为156、70μg/m3;上、下半年采暖期PM2.5平均值分别为178、124μg/m3;西安市气象风力以微风为主,雨天集中在5—9月,期间PM2.5月均值小于80μg/m3。     

新型微电解填料-Fenton联用处理硝基苯废水

研究通过单因素分析和正交实验法确定新型微电解填料-Fenton联用预处理硝基苯废水的最佳操作条件。结果表明,新型微电解填料降解硝基苯的影响因素从大到小依次为固液比>进水p H值>气水比>HRT,在微电解最佳条件:HRT为60 min,固液比为0.6,进水p H值为2,气水比为15∶1;Fenton试剂最佳条件:反应时间为20 min、p H值为4.5、m(H2O2):m(COD)为2.5、n(H2O2)∶n(Fe2+)为6,硝基苯和COD总去除率可分别达到97.6%和68.3%。处理后的废水可生化性提高,为后续的生物处理创造了良好的条件。     

新农村建设污水处理工程实例

山海关区新民居污水治理工程采用水解酸化+接触氧化+曝气生物滤池为主的工艺进行污水治理,实际运行结果表明:系统运行稳定,处理出水COD≤48 mg.L-1,BOD5≤9 mg.L-1,SS≤10 mg.L-1,NH3-N≤4.5 mg.L-1,TP≤0.47 mg.L-1,处理出水达到《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》(GB 18918-2002)一级A标准,出水用于农村绿化和农灌,经济效益和环境效益明显。     

A Socio-Ecological Assessment Aiming at Improved Forest Resource Management and Sustainable Ecotourism Development in the Mangroves of Tanbi Wetland National Park, The Gambia, West Africa

Although mangroves dominated by Avicennia germinans and Rhizophora mangle are extending over 6000 ha in the Tanbi Wetland National Park (TWNP) (The Gambia), their importance for local populations (both peri-urban and urban) is not well documented. For the first time, this study evaluates the different mangrove resources in and around Banjul (i.e., timber, non-timber, edible, and ethnomedicinal products) and their utilization patterns, including the possibility of ecotourism development. The questionnaire-based results have indicated that more than 80% of peri-urban population rely on mangroves for timber and non-timber products and consider them as very important for their livelihoods. However, at the same time, urban households demonstrate limited knowledge on mangrove species and their ecological/economic benefits. Among others, fishing (including the oyster—Crassostrea cf. gasar collection) and tourism are the major income-generating activities found in the TWNP. The age-old practices of agriculture in some parts of the TWNP are due to scarcity of land available for agriculture, increased family size, and alternative sources of income. The recent focus on ecotourism (i.e., boardwalk construction inside the mangroves near Banjul city) received a positive response from the local stakeholders (i.e., users, government, and non-government organizations), with their appropriate roles in sharing the revenue, rights, and responsibilities of this project. Though the guidelines for conservation and management of the TWNP seem to be compatible, the harmony between local people and sustainable resource utilization should be ascertained.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-012-0248-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

垃圾填埋场甲烷氧化菌及甲烷通量的研究

采用静态箱法、滚管计数法和气相色谱法,对6个不同封场时间填埋区的甲烷通量、覆土层甲烷氧化菌数量和甲烷氧化速率的变化趋势进行了测定,并分析了它们与封场时间、植被覆盖率等因素之间的相关性。结果发现6个填埋区甲烷通量的变化范围在-0.34～5.31 mg/(m2.h)之间;覆土层甲烷氧化菌的数量范围为3.10×107～20.77×107 cfu/g干土,甲烷氧化速率在1.65×10-8～4.34×10-8mol/(h.g)之间。覆土层甲烷氧化菌的数量与甲烷氧化速率呈正相关,但前者并不是后者的决定性因素;甲烷通量高时可刺激甲烷氧化菌数量及氧化速率的提高,且三者均与封场时间呈显著负相关,与植被覆盖率呈负相关;当含水率大于15%时,随着覆土层含水率的增加,甲烷氧化速率呈下降趋势;覆土pH、有机质和铵态氮与甲烷氧化速率等无明显相关性。提高覆土层的甲烷氧化速率可有效减少垃圾填埋场的甲烷排放。     

人力资本、社会资本与市民化抑制

新生代农民工问题的终结是市民化,但是目前许多新生代农民工存在市民化阻碍,这不利于我国城市化进程的推进和经济的持续健康发展。对沈阳和余姚两地区进行了案例调查,得到了两地区新生代农民工的调查数据。运用调查数据,首先采用需求可识别的biprobit模型对新生代的农民工市民化抑制程度进行了测度,并预测出新生代农民工个体的市民化抑制程度。在对新生代农民工个体的市民化抑制程度指标进行分位数回归分解的基础上,分析了人力资本和社会资本对新生代农民工市民化抑制程度的影响,以期促进新生代农民工的城市融入。研究发现:新生代农民工的社会资本水平是影响其市民化的关键因素,人力资本水平的提高只有在市民化抑制程度高于80%时才会使市民化抑制程度下降。因此,相应的政策建议为,政府应加强新生代农民工城市公共服务的享用水平;发展和健全农民工工会组织;在市民化抑制程度较高的地区应特别加强新生代农民工职业技能的培训。