Global monitoring of wetlands--the value of ENVISAT ASAR Global mode

This paper elaborates on recent advances in the use of ScanSAR technologies for wetland-related research. Applications of active satellite radar systems include the monitoring of inundation dynamics as well as time series analyses of surface soil wetness. For management purposes many wetlands, especially those in dry regions, need to be monitored for short and long-term changes. Another application of these technologies is monitoring the impact of climate change in permafrost transition zones where peatlands form one of the major land cover types. Therefore, examples from boreal and subtropical environments are presented using the analysed ENVISAT ASAR Global mode (GM, 1 km resolution) data acquired in 2005 and 2006. In the case of the ENVISAT ASAR instrument, data availability of the rather coarse Global Mode depends on request priorities of other competing modes, but acquisition frequency may still be on average fortnightly to monthly depending on latitude. Peatland types covering varying permafrost regimes of the West Siberian Lowlands can be distinguished from each other and other land cover by multi-temporal analyses. Up to 75% of oligotrophic bogs can be identified in the seasonal permafrost zone in both years. The high seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of the subtropic Okavango Delta can also be captured by GM time series. Response to increased precipitation in 2006 differs from flood propagation patterns. In addition, relative soil moisture maps may provide a valuable data source in order to account for external hydrological factors of such complex wetland ecosystems.     

2017-2019年扬州市大气污染物与儿童呼吸系统门诊量的时间序列分析

收集扬州市2017—2019年大气污染物细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))、二氧化硫(SO_2)、二氧化氮(NO_2)和臭氧(O_3)的日均质量浓度、气象因素(日均温度、相对湿度)以及每日儿童呼吸系统门诊量数据,运用广义相加模型(GAM)进行单污染物和多污染物分析。结果表明,单污染物分析中,大气污染物的质量浓度累积滞后效应均大于单独滞后效应。ρ(PM_(2.5))、ρ(SO_2)和ρ(NO_2)对儿童呼吸系统门诊量影响效应均在累积滞后7 d(lag 07)达到最大值,ρ(O_3)在累积滞后6 d(lag 06)达到最大值。表现为ρ(PM_(2.5))、ρ(SO_2)和ρ(NO_2)在lag 07时,每升高10μg/m~3,儿童呼吸系统门诊量超额危险度分别为0.720%[95%置信区间(95%CI):0.346%～1.095%]、6.955%(95%CI:5.197%～8.743%)和2.133%(95%CI:1.516%～2.754%);ρ(O_3)在lag 06时,每升高10μg/m~3,儿童呼吸系统门诊量超额危险度为1.160%(95%CI:0.873%～1.447%)。多污染物分析中,当引入所有污染物(SO_2+NO_2+O_3)时,PM_(2.5)对儿童呼吸系统门诊量风险影响消失。大气污染物浓度的升高会增加儿童呼吸系统疾病的发生风险,并且其影响存在一定的滞后效应,有必要开展有针对性的大气污染物与儿童呼吸系统疾病的预警研究,保护易感人群,合理分配卫生资源。     

Land-use changes and implications for management of a small protected island off the coast of Bretagne

Over the 20th century, reduced land cultivation has caused an extension of fallow land in several European countries, which has led to a decrease in biodiversity. Knowledge of dynamic vegetation processes and of the impact of human activities on biodiversity provides the basis for land management recommendations, as well as for wildlife management programs. We analysed land-use changes on a small protected island (Ushant, Bretagne, France) using historical documentation (1844) and aerial photographs taken in 1952 and 1992. Over this period, especially during the last 40 yr, Ushant underwent a complete transformation from rural landscape to extensive shrubland. No cultivated area remains, grazed areas were moved from the coastal fringe to the core of the island, while over 40% of the island is fallow land. The relationship between current sheep grazing and vegetation suggests that grazed meadows used to be close to inhabited areas, i.e. 150 m outside the villages. These results allowed us to analyse landcover potential related to changes in the intensity of sheep grazing. The scenarios highlighted by our method provide an objective framework for further assessment of fallow land management.     

强震作用下地埋结构的数值模型

应用时域边界元法研究了结构 介质动力相互作用问题。假设摩擦遵守库仑定理 ,当入射波足够强时界面会出现局部滑移、分离。由于边界上的区域 (滑移、分离和粘着 )是未知的 ,所以 ,笔者研究的实际上是个复杂的边界非线性问题。该模型对评估和预测地埋结构在动荷载下的安全具有重要的理论价值     

Future prediction & estimation of faults occurrences in oil pipelines by using data clustering with time series forecasting

The world of oil pipelines is subjected to serious issues due to occurrences of toxic spills, explosions and deformations like particle deposition, corrosions and cracks due to the contact of oil particles with the pipeline surface. Hence, the structural integrity of these pipelines is of great interest due to the probable environmental, infrastructural and financial losses in case of structural failure. Based on the existing technology, it is difficult to analyze the risks at the initial stage, since traditional methods are only appropriate for static accident analyses. Nevertheless, most of these models have used corrosion features alone to assess the condition of pipelines. To sort out the above problem in the oil pipelines, fault identification and prediction methods based on K-means clustering and Time-series forecasting incorporated with linear regression algorithm using multiple pressure data are proposed in this paper. The real-time validation of the proposed technique is validated using a scaled-down experimental hardware lab setup resembling characteristics exhibited by onshore unburied pipeline in India. In the proposed work, crack and blockages are identified by taking pressure rise and pressure drop inferred from two cluster assignment. The obtained numerical results from K-means clustering unveils that maximum datasets accumulated range of multiple pressures are within 16.147–10.638 kg/cm², 14.922–12.1674 kg/cm², 2.7645–1.2063 kg/cm² correspondingly. Hence by this final cluster center data, inspection engineers able to estimate the normal and abnormal performance of oil transportation in a simple-robust manner. The developed forecast model successfully predicts future fault occurrences rate followed by dissimilarity rate from clustering results holds the validity of 91.9% when applied to the historical pressure datasets. The models are expected to help pipeline operators without complex computation processing to assess and predict the condition of existing oil pipelines and hence prioritize the planning of their inspection and rehabilitation.     

The use of proactive risk management to reduce emergency service vehicle crashes among firefighters

IntroductionEmergency service vehicle crashes (ESVCs), including rollovers and collisions with other vehicles and fixed objects, are a leading cause of death among U.S. firefighters. Risk management (RM) is a proactive intervention to identifying and mitigating occupational risks and hazards. The goal of this study was to assess the effect of RM in reducing ESVCs. Methods: Three fire departments (A, B and C), representing urban and suburban geographies, and serving medium to large populations, participated in facilitated RM programs to reduce their ESVCs. Interventions were chosen by each department to address their department-specific circumstances and highest risks. Monthly crash rates per 10,000 calls were calculated for each department an average of 28 months before and 23 months after the start of the RM programs. Interrupted time series analysis was used to assess the effect of the RM programs on monthly crash rates. Poisson regression was used to estimate the number of crashes avoided. Economic data from Department A were analyzed to estimate cost savings. Results: Department A had a 15.4% (P = 0.30) reduction in the overall monthly crash rate immediately post-RM and a 1% (P = 0.18) decline per month thereafter. The estimated two-year average cost savings due to 167 crashes avoided was $253,100 (95%CI= $192,355 – $313,885). Department B had a 9.7% (P = 0.70) increase in the overall monthly crash rate immediately post-RM and showed no significant changes in their monthly crash rate. Department C had a 28.4% (P = 0.001) reduction in overall monthly crash rate immediately post-RM and a 1.2% (P = 0.09) increase per month thereafter, with an estimated 122 crashes avoided. Conclusions: RM programs have the potential to reduce ESVCs in the fire service and their associated costs; results may vary based on the interventions chosen and how they are implemented. Practical applications: Risk management may be an effective and broadly implemented intervention to reduce ESVCs in the US fire service.     

Time budgets and foraging in a Malagasy primate: do sex differences reflect reproductive condition and female dominance?

Female mammals commonly employ behavioral tactics of modulating activity levels and foraging behavior to counter the energetic burden of reproduction; these behavioral changes are reflected as intersexual differences. Traditional views of Malagasy primates posit that high reproductive costs select for female dominance which guarantees to energetically stressed females priority of resource access. I tested predictions regarding reproductive influences on sex differences in time budgets and foraging behavior using two groups of Milne-Edwards' sifaka (Propithecus diadema edwardsi) in southeastern Madagascar. Compared to males, females increased neither feeding nor resting time during gestation or lactation. Sex differences were essentially absent in all foraging time variables examined (time, duration, rate). In contrast, dietary composition diverged between the sexes in some months. The possibility that females selected particular food items to boost nutrient and energetic intake to meet increased requirements during reproduction must be further clarified with nutritional analyses. Sex differences in plant part choices coincided with lactation in one of the two study groups. Thus, the timing of sex differences in feeding patterns of P. d. edwardsi only partially supports the prediction that sex differences are most pronounced during the period of greatest female energetic demand. A comparative review indicated no tight association between female dominance and sex differences in foraging among Malagasy primates. Traditional female dominance theory falls short of explaining the observed patterns. The results of my study coupled with recent evidence suggest that non-behavioral tactics involving energy conservation and storage require further attention as mechanisms by which female lemurs cope with reproductive costs. Received: 12 June 1998 / Accepted after revision: 10 October 1998     

污染-经济时间弹性概念、方法与应用

环境污染随着经济发展的进程不断变化.为更加全面、准确地描述环境污染与经济发展的关系,本文将"弹性"分析方法应用于描述环境污染指标与经济发展指标之间的关系,提出"污染-经济时间弹性"概念,即一个国家或地区环境污染指标的年际变化率与相应的该国家或地区经济指标年际变化率的比值.文章进而分析了PETE的环境经济学含义及其计算方法.指标PETE能够用来描述一个国家或地区经济发展的清洁程度, 通常情况下, 较低的PETE值意味着较为清洁的增长方式, 而较高的PETE值则多与粗放和非清洁的增长方式相联系; 利用PETE还可以对空间(国家,地区)上和行业间的经济增长方式进行比较.文章最后通过1999-2008年中国环境污染指标(全社会主要污染物SO2、COD和烟尘排放量)数据和相应时间段的经济发展指标(GDP)数据, 计算中国全社会主要污染物排放与经济发展的"污染-经济时间弹性(PETE)", 发现该指标确能反映"经济发展的环境效率"的动态变化, 即为着获得一定的经济发展速度所付出环境代价之动态变化情状,验证了PETE概念和方法的科学性和实用性.PETE概念和方法的提出,为环境-经济分析提供了新的分析指标和工具.     

Decabromodiphenylether and hexabromocyclododecane in wild birds from the United Kingdom, Sweden and The Netherlands: Screening and time trends

The brominated flame retardant decabromodiphenylether (DBDE) was analysed in wild birds to identify the most suitable species for monitoring time trends in DBDE contamination. This information was later used for the design of a 10-year trend study on DBDE in the European Union. DBDE was measured in muscle tissue, liver, and eggs from 10 terrestrial and four aquatic bird species. DBDE was detected in 47% of the terrestrial bird samples (nine species) and in 9% of the aquatic bird samples (six species). Peregrine falcon and sparrowhawk specimens were selected as most suitable species to determine temporal trends of DBDE. For sparrowhawks, no significant change in DBDE concentrations between 1973 and 2001 was found, although in later years more DBDE concentrations were above the detection limit. Peak DBDE levels measured in peregrines in 1995, were followed by a decline in concentrations until 2001. The same species were used for a trend study on hexabromocylcododecane (HBCD). Twenty-four percent of peregrine falcon eggs and 12% of sparrowhawk muscle samples demonstrated measurable HBCD residues. Three diastereomers of HBCD were analysed and the α-diastereomer was the predominant one in most samples. No clear time trends were observed for HBCD in either species. This study demonstrated that these DBDE and HBCD are bioavailable to birds of Northern Europe, although bioaccumulation seems to occur to a limited extent.     

Formaldehyde personal exposure measurements and time weighted exposure estimates in children

Residential concentrations of formaldehyde have been associated with poor respiratory health in children, where formaldehyde has been measured using stationary monitors inside homes. Although children spend most of their time indoors at home, there are few studies of children’s personal exposure to formaldehyde. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between personal exposure formaldehyde concentrations, microenvironmental concentrations and time weighted exposure estimates in children.Forty-one primary school children (aged between 9 and 12 years) wore a personal passive sampler over two 24 h periods in two seasons and completed 24 h daily activity diaries and a questionnaire about lifestyle and behaviour. Samplers were co located indoors at home, outdoors at centralised locations and indoors at school for the corresponding period.Personal exposure formaldehyde concentrations in this group of children were generally low with a geometric mean concentration of 9.1 ppb (range <detection limit to 27.3 ppb). There were strong correlations between personal exposure concentrations and both domestic indoor (r_s = .779, p < 0.001) and time weighted estimated (r_s = .802, p < 0.001) concentrations. The time weighted model did not improve the estimate of personal exposure compared with stationary indoor concentrations. Indoor air concentration measured with a single stationary monitor was a suitable surrogate for personal exposure.