Does time of day matter at highway work zone crashes?

Introduction: It is widely agreed that highway work zones pose significant threats to road users because driving conditions in work zones are quite different from the normal ones, particularly when traffic volumes approach a highway capacity. Therefore, work zone safety is a critical aspect for state agencies and traffic engineers. Method: In the current study, a total of 10,218 crashes that occurred in highway work zones in the state of Washington for the period between 2007 and 2013 were used. Time of day is disaggregated into four subgroups: (1) Morning from 6:00 to 11:00 a.m. (2) Midday from 12:00 to 5:00 p.m. (3) Night from 6:00 to 11:00 p.m., and (4) Late night from 12:00 to 5:00 a.m. Then, four mixed logit models were estimated to account and correct for heterogeneity in the crash data by considering three injury severity levels: severe injury, minor injury, and no injury. Results: The estimation results reveal that most contributing factors are uniquely significant in a specific time of day period, whereas three factors affect injury severity regardless of time of day such as the indicators of not deployed airbag, one passenger vehicle involved in the crash, and rear-end collision. Further, some factors were found to affect injury severity into two or three time periods, such as female drivers that found to decrease the probability of no injury in morning and night time periods, while increasing severe injury outcome in midday time. Conclusions: The effect of time of day on injury severity of work-zone related crashes should be modeled separately rather than using a holistic model. Practical applications: As a starting point, findings of the current study can be used by transportation officials to reduce fatalities and injuries of work zone crashes by identifying factors that uniquely contribute to each time of day period.     

Female foraging and male vigilance in white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucurus): opportunism or behavioural coordination?

For several species of birds, high rates of male vigilance are correlated with high rates of female foraging. This relationship is thought to ultimately result in higher reproductive success for females paired with highly vigilant males. However, previous research has not examined the behavioural mechanism that produces the correlation between male vigilance and rates of female foraging. Foraging females may take advantage of vigilance that males are using for other purposes. Alternatively, the purpose of male vigilance may be to increase females' ability to forage. We examined these alternatives by testing whether vigilance preceded or followed bouts of female foraging more often than would occur by chance alone, using simultaneous behaviour observations of pre-incubation pairs of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucurus). Our results indicate that each member of a pair may influence the behaviour of the other. Females were more likely to initiate foraging bouts after males became vigilant than if their mate remained non-vigilant. Moreover, non-vigilant males were more likely to become vigilant if their mate was foraging than if she was engaged in some other activity. Despite the possibility that a sexual conflict exists as each member of a pair attempts to maximize its fitness, both sexes behave as though a major role of male vigilance is to enhance female foraging opportunities. Received: 3 May 1999 / Received in revised form: 14 June 1999 / Accepted: 16 June 1999     

Mapping and evaluating sugarcane expansion in Brazil’s savanna using MODIS and intensity analysis: a case-study from the state of Tocantins

In Brazil, the main biofuel crop is sugarcane, and with its rapid expansion, there is much debate about what land uses and land covers it is replacing, and what are the associated environmental and social impacts. Some argue sugarcane is mainly replacing cattle pasture, thus having minimal impacts on native vegetation and small-scale family farming. In contrast, others claim sugarcane is replacing cropland traditionally under soybeans, rice, beans, and corn. Thus, food security is negatively affected and small-scale family farming livelihoods and culture are threatened. This is a proof-of-concept paper illustrating methods contributing toward the resolution of such debates. First we map land use and cover change in areas undergoing sugarcane expansion using satellite data from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer); second, we test the hypothesis that sugarcane is replacing traditional annual crops using intensity analysis, via a case study of land change in the municipality of Pedro Afonso, Tocantins in northern Brazil between the 2008–2013 crop years. Maps matched reference data with overall agreements between 87–91%. Intensity analysis confirmed sugarcane is replacing annual crops much more than cattle pasture and other land uses and covers, pointing to particular economic and social processes driving land change.     

Trends of PCDD/F and PCB concentrations and depositions in ambient air in Northwestern Germany

Time series of polychlorinated dioxins and furans (PCDD/F) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) in ambient air of a large conurbation in North-Western Germany are presented and analyzed. The trend of PCDD/F concentrations, starting from as early as 1988, shows a pronounced decrease by at least one order of magnitude, demonstrating that the emission reductions were effective. The PCDD/F depositions also have decreased by a factor of 5 since 1992. However, both trends have leveled out since 2005. Time series of PCB concentrations and depositions starting in 1994 show only slight decreases for the concentrations and almost no decrease for the depositions. From the decay rates following first order kinetics, half-lives in the order of 5-15 years for the PCDD/F and 15-31 years for the sum of the six indicator PCB could be calculated, which are much longer than the half-lives estimated from their reactivity towards the OH radical. Apparently, small fresh emissions (PCDD/F), considerable secondary emissions and evaporation from contaminated soils slow down their decay in the atmosphere of big conurbations. Analyzing the decay rates of individual PCB congeners shows that the lower chlorinated and more volatile ones are removed faster than the higher chlorinated congeners, probably via gas phase reactions with the OH radical. It can be concluded from the present study that the input of PCDD/F and PCB into the food chain via the air path will continue for another one or two decades in big conurbations.     

Effective Long-term Ecological Monitoring Using Spatially and Temporally Nested Sampling

Effective environmental management requires documentation of ecosystem status and changes to that status. Without long-term data, short-term natural variability can mask chronic and/or cumulative impacts, often until critical levels are reached. However, a trade-off generally occurs between sampling in space and time. This study analyses a spatially and temporally nested long-term (12 years) monitoring programme conducted on benthic macrofauna in a large harbour. Sampling was carried out at six sites for 5.5 years, after which only two sites were sampled for the next 5 years. After this period, all six sites were sampled for another 2 years. While ecology is frequently thought of being highly variable, this design was able to detect trends, and cycles, in abundance, with only around 10% of species at each site exhibiting unpredictable temporal variability. Sites exhibiting similar trends in the abundance of a species over the 12.5-year period were generally spatially contiguous, and the spatial scale of change could be assessed. Continuous sampling at two sites identified whether changes in unsampled sites were related to long-term cycles. Moreover, this sampling provided a long-term background of temporal fluctuations against which to assess the ecological significance of observed changes.     

Integrated Ambient and Microenvironment Model for Estimation of PM10 Exposures of Children in Annual and Episode Settings

Particulate matter air pollution is estimated to cause in the order of 350,000 excess deaths in the European Union calling for policy development and evaluation tools. In the current work, a model for PM₁₀ exposures of children is developed using microenvironment time activities and infiltration of ambient pollution indoors, both evaluated against observations earlier and integrated with city-wide air quality models in the current work. The model is demonstrated using data from two cities in Italy. High-end short-term exposures are characterized by an episode-day situation in Turin, and annual mean exposures in downtown Bologna. The air quality model was unable to capture the highest levels during the episode, and therefore, the exposure model was adjusted using observed–modeled ratio from a monitoring station. Air quality model performance for the annual levels was significantly better. Annual exposure variability within the target population was 1.5-fold in the downtown area Bologna and tenfold during the episode day in Turin.     

Historical trends of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in three dated sediment cores from Mexico

This paper describes the first report of dioxins and furans (PCDDs/Fs) in sediment cores from Mexico. Sedimentation rates and vertical fluxes were estimated using ²¹⁰Pb dating. Two cores correspond to marine sediments and one to an endorheic lake. Concentrations of PCDDs/Fs found in the three sites are typical of non-impacted areas with low concentrations when compared to reference values. However the PCDDs/Fs sediment profiles show an increasing concentration trend in the upper core sections. This behavior is different from that found at many sites around the globe where diminishing concentrations have been reported. A strong predominance of OCDD was observed, and a comparison to typical composition profiles of industrial and other sources did not result in clear origin assignments for these measured compounds. We suggest that local sources may be responsible for the increase in concentration and, because these undetermined sources have not been curtailed, their importance is still growing.     

Estimating contribution of wildland fires to ambient ozone levels in National Parks in the Sierra Nevada, California

Data from four continuous ozone and weather monitoring sites operated by the National Park Service in Sierra Nevada, California, are used to develop an ozone forecasting model and to estimate the contribution of wildland fires on ambient ozone levels. The analyses of weather and ozone data pointed to the transport of ozone precursors from the Central Valley as an important source of pollution in these National Parks. Comparisons of forecasted and observed values demonstrated that accurate forecasts of next-day hourly ozone levels may be achieved by using a time series model with historic averages, expected local weather and modeled PM values as explanatory variables. Results on fire smoke influence indicated occurrence of significant increases in average ozone levels with increasing fire activity. The overall effect on diurnal ozone values, however, was small when compared with the amount of variability attributed to sources other than fire.     

时间序列模型在火警短期预测中的应用

基于某市的119火警数据,采用时间序列模型中的ARIMA算法进行了分析.计算结果表明,该市119火警数据的天序列服从ARIMA(0,1,2)模型,周序列服从ARIMA(1,0,0)模型.从模型对数据的拟合效果来看,ARIMA模型较为准确的反映了数据序列的发展趋势.采用这两种模型对数据序列分别进行了短期的预测,其预测值与实际结果在趋势上基本一致,研究表明采用周序列预测的效果要好于天序列.基于时序模型的火警预测方法是实现时火灾应急处置中关口前移的重要措施.