Metapopulation dynamics of a perennial plant, Succisa pratensis, in an agricultural landscape

Most metapopulation models neglect the local dynamics, and systems characterized by slow population turnover, time lags and non-equilibrium, are only rarely examined within a metapopulation context. In this study we used a realistic, spatially explicit, dynamic metapopulation model of a long-lived grassland plant, Succisa pratensis, to examine the relative importance of local population dynamics, and short and long-distance dispersal of seeds.     

Recent Changes of Sediment Yield in the Upper Yangtze, China

/ Reservoir sedimentation is one of the many environmental problems associated with the Three Gorges Project in China. The rate and characteristics of sedimentation that directly affect the operating life of the reservoir are closely related to soil erosion and sediment transport dynamics in the upstream catchment and to the ability to manage the throughput of sediment-laden waters. The recent changes in sediment yield were examined using gauging data from 187 stations of varying sizes from less than 100 km2 to larger than 1,000,000 km2 in the Upper Yangtze basin between 1956 and 1987. Whereas many previous studies have concentrated on the trends in the main channel of the Yangtze, the distributed pattern of changes across the whole catchment is complex. Results from time series analysis indicate ten stations, mainly located in the Dadu and Wu tributaries (with a total incremental catchment area of 78,963 km2) have shown increasing trajectories of sediment yield, and six stations, located in the upper Jialing and Tuo tributaries (with a total incremental area of 27,816 km2) have experienced decreasing trajectories. By dividing the time series into three components, it is possible to map significant decadal changes in sediment yields that can be related to phases of deforestation and the construction of water conservancy projects. Most of the observed decreases in sediment yield are associated with large reservoir schemes on tributary rivers. The lack of evidence for increasing sediment input to the Three Gorges area masks a considerable variation in sediment conveyance and storage within the Upper Yangtze catchment.KEY WORDS: Sediment yield; Reservoir sedimentation; Three Gorges Project; Time series analysis; China     

SBR工艺处理皂素废水的实验研究及对策分析

废水处理是皂素产业可持续发展的关键,为解决这一问题,我们综合考虑了皂紊废水处理的技术、经济和运行管理等方面,预选了SBR工艺,并以反应时间为中心,试验分析了基质浓度、污泥浓度、温度和曝气强度对反应时间的影响。试验结果表明,氧的传质是SBR工艺处理皂素废水的核心问题,并据此分析了提高经济性和运行管理可操作性的对策。     

Planning waste cooking oil collection systems

This research has been motivated by a real-life problem of a waste cooking oil collection system characterized by the existence of multiple depots with an outsourced vehicle fleet, where the collection routes have to be plan. The routing problem addressed allows open routes between depots, i.e., all routes start at one depot but can end at the same or at a different one, depending on what minimizes the objective function considered. Such problem is referred as a Multi-Depot Vehicle Routing Problem with Mixed Closed and Open Inter-Depot Routes and is, in this paper, modeled through a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation where capacity and duration constraints are taken into account. The model developed is applied to the real case study providing, as final results, the vehicle routes planning where a decrease of 13% on mileage and 11% on fleet hiring cost are achieved, when comparing with the current company solution.     

The Nature of Time: How the Covers of the World's Most Widely Read Weekly News Magazine Visualize Environmental Affairs

Scholars of environmental communication acknowledge the importance of visual representations in shaping perceptions and actions in relation to environmental affairs. Unlike with other media, including newspapers, television and film, research on the visualization of nature and environmental issues in magazines is rare. This study focuses on the covers of Time magazine, one of the world's most influential news weeklies. A dataset that includes all relevant covers from 1923 to 2011 is examined using a combination of quantitative and qualitative content analysis to analyze the visual representation of nature and environmental issues. The results show that the presence of environmental issues and nature on the covers has increased over the decades. Furthermore, Time takes an advocacy position on some environmental issues, but it is a shallow one that is weakly argued through less-than-engaging imagery and fails to offer much in the way of solutions or agency to the reader.     

污染物排放波动特征及对排污许可限值的影响

受生产活动变化的影响,企业的污染物排放具有一定的波动性,制定基于不同时间周期的污染物排污许可限值,是完善企业污染物排放监管的需要。以铁岭市企业在线监测数据为基础,采用短周期排放量与长周期排放量的比值β,研究了企业行业特征和规模对不同周期污染物排放量的影响。结果表明,行业对β值具有重要的影响,铁岭市屠宰行业、煤炭行业和污水处理厂COD日排放量与年排放量的比值β平均值分别为2.82、2.61和1.65,NH-N排放量Cr MDL 3的β平均值分别为2.9、3.49和2.59,表明污水处理厂相比屠宰行业和煤炭行业具有更强的稳定性。从企业规模来看,MDL企业规模较小时,由于生产稳定性差β值波动较大;企业规模较大时,β值趋于稳定。因此,制定不同周期的企业排污许可限值时,应基于不同的行业特征和企业规模给出不同的参考比值。     

Relationships between dissolved and particulate carbohydrate temporal patterns and mucilaginous aggregates formation: evidences from time series analysis and biochemical composition of aggregates

A 3-year monitoring of dissolved and particulate carbohydrate concentrations in four transects located in the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian Seas was performed in order to get information on the role played by carbohydrates in the mucilage formation in these areas. The application of time series analysis pointed out that the concentration of dissolved carbohydrates does not vary significantly in coincidence of the mucilage appearance showing an almost constant state with respect to time. In contrast, wider temporal variations of carbohydrate amounts, either increase or decrease, were observed when mucilages were lacking or reduced. This almost constant state of carbohydrate amounts observed in presence of mucilages that we define 'steady state' could be associated to an alteration of the complex chemical equilibrium between synthesis and degradation (either hydrolysis or oxidation) reactions of the organic polymers which are typical of the humification processes in the marine environment. The results of this study suggest that the monitoring of carbohydrates can represent an useful tool for the comprehension of the most relevant phenomena of mucilage appearance in the Northern Adriatic Sea.     

Can a unique appearance of e-bikes,coupled with information on their characteristics,influence drivers’ gap acceptance?

Abstract

Objective: Car drivers tend to underestimate the speed of e-bikes and accept smaller gaps for crossing in front of them compared to conventional bicycles. As an explanation, it has been suggested that car drivers rely on their previous experience with conventional bicycles, which tells them that those mostly travel at low speeds. E-bikes, which look just like regular bicycles, do not conform to this expectation, resulting in potentially dangerous interactions. Based on this assumption, researchers have suggested to increase other road users’ awareness of e-bikes’ higher speeds by giving them a distinct appearance. The goal of our experiment was to investigate the effects of such a unique appearance, aided by clear instructions about the higher speeds of e-bikes, on gap acceptance.

Method: In order to investigate the effect of appearance independent of the effect of bicycle type, we used video sequences of conventional bicycles and e-bikes approaching at different levels of speed. The riders (regardless of what type of bike they were actually riding) either wore an orange helmet as an indicator for an e-bike, or a gray helmet indicating a conventional bicycle. Fifty participants were asked to indicate the smallest acceptable gap for a left turn in front of the cyclist or e-bike rider.

Results: The results showed significantly smaller acceptable gaps when confronted with the gray helmet (signal for bicycle) compared to the orange helmet (signal for e-bike), whereas there was no difference between the actual bicycle types.

Conclusions: Overall, the results indicate that informing about e-bikes characteristics in combination with a unique appearance can lead to a more cautious behavior among car drivers.     

Quantifying parameter uncertainty in a coral reef model using Metropolis-Coupled Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Coral reefs are threatened ecosystems, so it is important to have predictive models of their dynamics. Most current models of coral reefs fall into two categories. The first is simple heuristic models which provide an abstract understanding of the possible behaviour of reefs in general, but do not describe real reefs. The second is complex simulations whose parameters are obtained from a range of sources such as literature estimates. We cannot estimate the parameters of these models from a single data set, and we have little idea of the uncertainty in their predictions.We have developed a compromise between these two extremes, which is complex enough to describe real reef data, but simple enough that we can estimate parameters for a specific reef from a time series. In previous work, we fitted this model to a long-term data set from Heron Island, Australia, using maximum likelihood methods. To evaluate predictions from this model, we need estimates of the uncertainty in our parameters. Here, we obtain such estimates using Bayesian Metropolis-Coupled Markov Chain Monte Carlo. We do this for versions of the model in which corals are aggregated into a single state variable (the three-state model), and in which corals are separated into four state variables (the six-state model), in order to determine the appropriate level of aggregation. We also estimate the posterior distribution of predicted trajectories in each case.In both cases, the fitted trajectories were close to the observed data, but we had doubts about the biological plausibility of some parameter estimates. We suggest that informative prior distributions incorporating expert knowledge may resolve this problem. In the six-state model, the posterior distribution of state frequencies after 40 years contained two divergent community types, one dominated by free space and soft corals, and one dominated by acroporid, pocilloporid, and massive corals. The three-state model predicts only a single community type. We conclude that the three-state model hides too much biological heterogeneity, but we need more data if we are to obtain reliable predictions from the six-state model. It is likely that there will be similarly large, but currently unevaluated, uncertainty in the predictions of other coral reef models, many of which are much more complex and harder to fit to real data.     

Transmission Functions and its application to the analysis of time uncertainties in Protection Engineering

In this paper we explore the concept of transmission Functions and its application to the resolution of the problem posed by the uncertainty in the time to take manual protective actions due for instance to different operator abilities. This time uncertainty is a very special kind of uncertainty with obvious relevance in Protection Engineering problems. Tackling it involves a large amount of simulations of transients associated to sequences of system transitions, resulting from those actions, where the only difference from one simulation to another is the time interval between transitions, the evolution laws being always the same. In order to solve such type of problems, a new formalism is proposed based on the concept of transmission Function. We prove that for a large class of Multiple Input–Multiple Output (MIMO) piecewise linear systems, the output may be obtained as additive contributions of each interval of the sequence, each one characterized via a Transmission Function. We then provide efficient methods to compute Transmission Functions of sequences of canonical Single Input-Single Output (SISO) piecewise systems, and to find the locus of protective action times that lead to damage (damage domain).