Pedestrian behavior and exit selection in evacuation of a corridor - An experimental study

In this paper, we present an experiment whose purpose was to study evacuees’ exit selection under different behavioral objectives. The experiment was conducted in a corridor with two exits located asymmetrically. This geometry was used to make most participants face a nontrivial decision on which exit to use. We analyze the behavior on a macroscopic level using statistical methods. Our results suggest that the members of an evacuating crowd may not be able to make optimal decisions when assessing the fastest exit to evacuate. In addition, the egress time of the whole crowd turns out to be shorter when the evacuees behave egoistically instead of behaving cooperatively. This is an interesting result because many studies on real emergencies show that evacuees tend to cooperate and act altruistically.     

杞麓湖南岸农业生产分析及最佳农业生产模式选择

通过调查,对杞麓湖南岸的农业结构、化肥使用量和农业生产经济进行分析,针对杞麓湖南岸区蔬菜种植属于典型的"高投入、高产出",但产投比相对较低的农业生产模式,提出杞麓湖南岸农业生产模式优化方案,为杞麓湖面源污染的治理提供依据。     

扎龙湿地丹顶鹤繁殖栖息地的选择及扩散

景观演变对野生动物栖息地质量和连接度造成的影响,一直是威胁全球生物多样性保护的关键问题,开展扎龙湿地丹顶鹤（Grus japonensis）繁殖栖息地选择及繁殖期生境间的扩散研究,对野生丹顶鹤的保护具有重要的意义。首先利用需要“出现点”的生态位MAXENT模型,进行适宜栖息地选择研究。从水源、食物、干扰、隐蔽物四个方面选择明水面距离、土壤湿度、NDVI、道路距离和居民地距离五个环境变量作为丹顶鹤繁殖栖息地选择的影响因子,预测扎龙保护区可供丹顶鹤进行营巢繁殖的栖息地分布,并分析各影响因子的反应曲线。结果显示：丹顶鹤易于选择远离道路和居民地干扰且靠近明水面的区域作为营巢栖息地,栖息地土壤湿度较高并且植被覆盖较多。从MAXENT模型中提取了38个适宜栖息地斑块,基于电路理论模拟丹顶鹤繁殖期失去飞行能力时的多路径扩散,最大电流密度图突出了可能的“夹点”,模拟出具有一定宽度范围的连接区域,可供丹顶鹤在繁殖期间进行扩散。累积电流密度图突出了在维持网络连通性方面起到积极作用的斑块,并进行面积加权来评估适宜栖息地斑块的综合重要性。结果表明,在MAXENT模型预测出的适宜栖息地斑块基础上,考虑丹顶鹤繁殖期的迁移扩散行为,利用累积电流密度面积加权来评估适宜栖息地斑块的综合重要性,得到的适宜性等级更符合丹顶鹤真实巢址的分布。研究成果可为保护区丹顶鹤栖息繁殖生境的恢复和保护提供科学依据。     

A method for simplifying the analysis of traffic accidents injury severity on two-lane highways using Bayesian networks

Introduction

This study describes a method for reducing the number of variables frequently considered in modeling the severity of traffic accidents. The method's efficiency is assessed by constructing Bayesian networks (BN).

Method

It is based on a two stage selection process. Several variable selection algorithms, commonly used in data mining, are applied in order to select subsets of variables. BNs are built using the selected subsets and their performance is compared with the original BN (with all the variables) using five indicators. The BNs that improve the indicators’ values are further analyzed for identifying the most significant variables (accident type, age, atmospheric factors, gender, lighting, number of injured, and occupant involved). A new BN is built using these variables, where the results of the indicators indicate, in most of the cases, a statistically significant improvement with respect to the original BN.

Conclusions

It is possible to reduce the number of variables used to model traffic accidents injury severity through BNs without reducing the performance of the model.

Impact on Industry

The study provides the safety analysts a methodology that could be used to minimize the number of variables used in order to determine efficiently the injury severity of traffic accidents without reducing the performance of the model.     

基于格序理论的爆炸类危险化学品运输路径研究

为有效预防和减少爆炸类危险化学品运输中事故的发生,针对爆炸类危险化学品运输的路径优化选择问题,将多目标格序决策理论引入到路径方案评价比选中,构建了爆炸类危险化学品运输路径优化选择评价指标体系。结合指标选取的综合性和可操作性原则,从6个方面建立爆炸类危险化学品运输路径比选指标体系:影响区域死伤人数规模、影响区域厂矿规模、影响区域人口规模、影响区域名胜古迹保护性、影响区域生态环境保护性、影响区域综合出行费用规模。通过对各方案综合差异度的计算,实现了备选方案的格序化排序。并且在模型体系权重计算中采用了熵值法,实现了权重确定的客观性。最后,应用该模型结合实例进行了计算。     

The moderating effects of job control and selection,optimization, and compensation strategies on the age–work ability relationship

Work ability describes employees' capability to carry out their work with respect to physical and psychological job demands. This study investigated direct and interactive effects of age, job control, and the use of successful aging strategies called selection, optimization, and compensation (SOC) in predicting work ability. We assessed SOC strategies and job control by using employee self‐reports, and we measured employees' work ability using supervisor ratings. Data collected from 173 health‐care employees showed that job control was positively associated with work ability. Additionally, we found a three‐way interaction effect of age, job control, and use of SOC strategies on work ability. Specifically, the negative relationship between age and work ability was weakest for employees with high job control and high use of SOC strategies. These results suggest that the use of successful aging strategies and enhanced control at work are conducive to maintaining the work ability of aging employees. We discuss theoretical and practical implications regarding the beneficial role of the use of SOC strategies utilized by older employees and enhanced contextual resources at work for aging employees. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Attitudes towards sex selection in the Western world

It appears that in most Western countries, son preference is somewhat stronger than daughter preference. However, when one considers the preference of women it looks as though the opposite pattern is emerging. There is a considerable social acceptance of ‘light’ methods of sex selection (such as diets), even though these methods are not proven to be effective. The inclination to use sperm separation methods appears to be greater in the United States than in some European countries. There are indications that a preference for boys or for girls is associated with attitudes towards technology, child-rearing style and the stereotyping of boys or girls. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Secondary sexual characters and female quality in primates

Honest advertisement models of sexual selection propose that exaggerated secondary sexual ornaments are condition-dependent, and that only individuals with superior disease resistance will be able to express costly ornamentation. Studies of secondary sexual ornamentation and their maintenance by sexual selection tend to focus on males. However, females may also possess showy ornaments. We investigated whether female ornaments, in the form of sexual swellings, reliably signal female fitness in a semifree-ranging colony of mandrills (Mandrillus sphinx) at the Centre International de Recherches Médicales, Franceville (CIRMF), Gabon. We measured swelling height and width using photographs of periovulatory females over three mating seasons and compared swelling size with parasitism (using fecal analysis over one annual cycle), immune status (ratio of lymphocytes to neutrophils in blood smears made during captures), and genetic diversity (microsatellite heterozygosity). Swelling size varied by up to 10% between cycles in individual females, giving some support to the hypothesis that size differences may indicate the quality of individual swelling cycles. However, there was no significant difference in swelling size between conceptive and nonconceptive cycles. Measures of swelling size varied more between females than within females across swelling cycles, implying that swelling size was a relatively consistent characteristic of individual females. Swelling size was not significantly related to either general measures of parasitism and immune status, or to the closest available measures to each swelling cycle. Nor was swelling size significantly related to genetic diversity. The healthy, provisioned nature of the colony and problems associated with observational, correlational studies restrict interpretation of our data. However, in combination with previous findings that females of higher reproductive success do not show larger swellings, and that males do not allocate mating effort as a function of swelling size, these results imply that sexual swelling size does not indicate female quality in these semifree-ranging mandrills.     

Planning for robust reserve networks using uncertainty analysis

Planning land-use for biodiversity conservation frequently involves computer-assisted reserve selection algorithms. Typically such algorithms operate on matrices of species presence–absence in sites, or on species-specific distributions of model predicted probabilities of occurrence in grid cells. There are practically always errors in input data—erroneous species presence–absence data, structural and parametric uncertainty in predictive habitat models, and lack of correspondence between temporal presence and long-run persistence. Despite these uncertainties, typical reserve selection methods proceed as if there is no uncertainty in the data or models. Having two conservation options of apparently equal biological value, one would prefer the option whose value is relatively insensitive to errors in planning inputs. In this work we show how uncertainty analysis for reserve planning can be implemented within a framework of information-gap decision theory, generating reserve designs that are robust to uncertainty. Consideration of uncertainty involves modifications to the typical objective functions used in reserve selection. Search for robust-optimal reserve structures can still be implemented via typical reserve selection optimization techniques, including stepwise heuristics, integer-programming and stochastic global search.     

Parasite-mediated sexual selection: just how choosy are parasitized females?

Models of parasite-mediated sexual selection have thus far overlooked the potential effects of parasites of females on their hosts’ ability to choose mates. A set of models addressing this issue is developed, each building on the previous one to add complexity and realism to the framework. The selection coefficient for parasite immunity and brightness is estimated using the ratio of the fitness of susceptible males to the fitness of immune males. Parasite-induced reduction in female choosiness can substantially relax the selection for bright, immune males, especially when: (1) immunity to parasites is rare in the population, (2) parasites are not highly aggregated within the host population, (3) parasites are abundant, and (4) the effects of parasites on male brightness or female choosiness are severe. Parasite-induced variability in male brightness is most likely to occur in populations in which parasites are abundant and not aggregated; if females in those populations show a reduced preference for bright males, sexual selection for brightness (and parasite immunity) will still operate but exert a weaker selective pressure. Received: 4 November 1994/Accepted after revision: 9 September 1995