基于TCT的平面交叉口安全评价方法研究

事故率法是评价平面交叉口交通安全水平常用的方法之一,但因其存在基于事故统计方法固有的因事故的稀有性而使评价周期过长、因事故统计的不完全性致使评价结论欠真、缺乏事故严重性程度的考虑等缺点。笔者针对事故率法评价交叉口安全水平存在的上述问题,在概要介绍交通冲突技术并对交通冲突技术的有效性进行分析的基础上,提出了使事故率法与交通冲突技术相结合,用交通冲突代替交通事故改善交叉口事故率法的理论设想。进而,结合质量控制法,研究了同类型交叉口的交通冲突率的临界值的确定,提出了基于交通冲突技术和交叉口交通冲突率的评价方法。     

从安全角度设计车险条款的探讨

为了使驾驶者安全驾驶,达到减少交通事故和降低保险公司理赔支出的目的,笔者的研究课题是从安全角度出发,通过条款细分的方法讨论了安全驾驶与保费厘定之间的关系,确立了“以人为本”、“从车原则”的车险条款厘定细分原则。通过分析人的性别、年龄、驾龄、驾驶记录因素、车的安全性能和使用方式等因素对安全驾驶的影响,可以得出以下结论:适当减少安全驾车者的投保费用,增加风险大的驾驶者和投保车辆的投保费用,这样可以做到以防为主,减少交通事故发生,发挥保险对交通危险的调控作用,也有利于整治保险行业的违规行为,实现车险市场的公开、公平、公正的竞争态势。     

道路交通安全知识提取方法及其递进式模型的研究

道路交通数据资源日益膨胀和复杂化 ,已经远远超出了人脑的记忆和分析能力。面对道路交通的海量数据 ,传统运用的DBMS和OLTP技术 ,已无法发现隐藏在数据背后的关系、规则和发展趋势等新的内容、知识和信息。因此 ,建立基于DMKD的智能道路交通安全决策支持系统是相关部门急需解决的重大课题。笔者重点介绍了数据挖掘、知识发现的概念 ,提出了基于DW +OLAP +DMKD的道路交通安全决策支持系统 ,通过道路交通系统的要素分析 ,介绍了一种面向属性的粗糙集方法提取规则 ,并阐述了一种递进式规则评价提炼过程。     

Impact of Busy Roads on Breeding Success in Pied Flycatchers <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ficedula hypoleuca</Emphasis>

The impact of dense traffic on the breeding success in pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) was studied using roadside nest-boxes. Nest site selection and breeding success of flycatchers were observed in relation to the distance from the road. The number of occupied territories was no higher closer to the road than it was deeper inside the forest. The distance to the road had no effect on the laying date, clutch size, or brood size. However, nests closer to the road were more likely to fail at the chick stage. The number of broods that were closer to roads and were lost completely was significantly higher than those further away. As a consequence, the number of fledglings per breeding attempt decreased closer to roads. The nestlings typically died as older chicks when the parent birds were providing them with maximum quantities of food. A possible reason for the declining reproductive success was the traffic-related mortality of parent birds, as weather conditions were not especially adverse for raising healthy offspring.     

论道路交通安全环境

通过对道路交通环境与交通安全关系的阐述 ,分析了由于道路在规划、设计等方面的原因而导致交通事故的机理 ,探讨了道路环境在使用过程中技术状况对交通安全的影响 ,建立了道路交通安全体系 ,剖析了系统内各因素之间的关系 ,提出了道路安全环境对交通安全的影响有着极其重要的意义。文中还针对性地提出了改善交通安全状况、降低交通事故发生量的对策。     

市区主要交通路口机动车排气污染现状调查及防治对策

通过对主要交通路口汽车排气污染现状调查,证明交通路口是城市中空气质量最差地段,特别是对人体危害较火的总烃、一氧化碳、氮氧化物污染尤为严重;提出改善城区道路建设、改善燃料质量等防治措施。     

Determination of VOC source signature of vehicle exhaust in a traffic tunnel

This study describes the methodology used to obtain the volatile organic compound (VOC) source signature of vehicle exhaust. To accomplish this, C(2)-C(9) VOCs were measured in a traffic tunnel located in Seoul, South Korea. The effect of VOC concentrations from the outside ambient air was considered in the determination of the source signature. To examine the effects of ambient air on VOC concentrations inside the tunnel, the ratio of propane to the total VOC concentrations was compared between the entrance and middle sites in the tunnel. Propane was used as a standard not only because of its insignificant contribution to vehicle exhaust gas, but also the fact that propane is the most abundant VOC in the atmosphere of Seoul. The ratio of propane to the total VOC concentrations was higher at the entrance site than at the middle location by, on average, 60%. This suggests that ambient air affects the inside tunnel air to a greater extent at the entrance site as compared to the middle site. The contribution of ambient air to the air inside the tunnel at the entrance location varied from 30% to 67%, with an average of 55%. This is 1.5 times higher than the value measured at the middle location, which ranged from 20% to 48%, with an average of 36%. This shows that ambient air substantially affects the inside air of the tunnel. Excluding the effects of ambient air on the air inside the tunnel can provide an improved chemical composition for vehicle exhaust using tunnel measurements. We believe that the concentration difference between the two sites within the tunnel provides a more accurate chemical composition of vehicle exhaust as compared to that obtained from a measurement taken at only one point inside the tunnel.     

深圳城区噪声污染分析

通过对近年深圳市区域环境噪声及道路交通噪声的监测数据分析,发现深圳市交通声源是长期影响城市区域环境噪声的主要因素,其根源在于城市机动车辆增加迅速,路网过密,而配套设施跟不上,造成对城区域环境噪声污染相对集中,城区声环境日趋恶化。      

上海市浦东新区2014-2018年声环境质量状况分析

上海市浦东新区作为承接国家自由贸易区的先行试点地区,近年来吸引大批国内外企业入驻,同时经济发展与环境友好型社会矛盾依然突出。本文以2014年-2018年来浦东新区区域噪音与交通噪数据为依据,分析本地区声环境状况,结果表明声环境质量有所下降,一类功能区及交通噪音需进一步加强治理。通过源头屏蔽,大力发展张江、周浦、滴水湖等科技园区建设,阻断企业对居民区的噪声影响等措施,进而提升和改善浦东新区声环境质量状况。     

Modified grey model for estimating traffic tunnel air quality

This study compared three forecasting models based on the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) of their accuracy in forecasting air pollution in a traffic tunnel: the Grey model (GM), the combination model used four sample point and five sample point prediction with GM (1,1)(GM(1,1)^4 + 5), and the modified grey model (MGM). An MGM was combined using the four points of the original sequence using the original grey prediction GM (1,1) for short-term forecasting. The proposed method cannot only enhance the prediction accuracy of the original grey model, but can also solve the jump data forecasting problem something for which the original grey model is inappropriate. The MAPE was applied to the models, and the MGM found the proposed method to be simple and efficient. The MAPE of MGM, calculated over 3 h of forecasts, were as follows: 10.12 (Upwind), 10.07 (Middle) and 7.68 (Downwind) for CO; 10.79 (Upwind), 6.05 (Middle) and 5.98 (Downwind) for NO _x , and 11.67 (Upwind), 7.32 (Middle) and 4.56 (Downwind) for NMHC. The MGM model results reveal that the combined forecasts can significantly decrease the overall forecasting error. Results of this demonstrate that MGM can accurately forecast air pollution in the Kaohsiung Chung–Cheng Tunnel.