基于交通量的平面信号控制交叉口交通冲突模拟研究

针对我国交通冲突技术发展尚处于起步阶段 ,交通冲突数据统计尚不充分的现状 ,笔者研究了交通量和交通事故、交通冲突的密切关系 ,尝试建立以交通量为基础的交通冲突数学模型 ,力求更加准确地对平面交叉口进行安全评价 ,克服传统的基于事故统计的安全评价方法的不足。     

Factorial structure of recklessness: to what extent are older drivers different?

PROBLEM: This study tests whether the original factorial structure of a recklessness questionnaire can be maintained for the current Spanish population of older drivers. JUSTIFICATION: Our recent interest in dedicating special attention to senior citizen mobility (Monterde, 2001), is due to the impending increase of the aging population in Western countries; this has led us to reinitiate the psychometric study of the construct validity, revising and including older drivers in the psychometric aspects of those evaluation instruments that will then be used in the Spanish psycho-medical check of drivers and in research. METHODS: Factorial analysis was used to determine validity. RESULTS: There was an appearance of a different psychological pattern in elderly drivers, specifically, a psychological anxiety trait related to the task of driving. Furthermore, interesting data were found about the attitude of this sector toward the "traffic society" and toward some of the measures included in Spanish legislation that affect especially older drivers (such as the psycho-medical check). IMPACT ON INDUSTRY, RESEARCH AND PRACTICE: These results suggest the possible existence of some kind of "compensation phenomenon," which could have influence over the scores obtained and their interpretation. Consequently, the evaluation instruments should be tested and, if necessary, adapted or specifically created for use with this age group.     

道路交通安全研究方法

介绍了交通安全的研究方法和预测模型 ,并对统计分析、模糊数学分析及灰色理论方法进行了比较。在此基础上 ,介绍了适应我国目前交通安全研究现状的交通事故灰色预测研究方法 ,对交通事故发展趋势进行了预测。论文给出了相应的灰色预测模型及预测方法 ,预测结果与实际情况较吻合     

中国加入WTO对环保机械企业产生的影响

中国加入WTO将使国内环保企业竞争更为激烈 ,使国内环保机械企业生存变得更为艰难。同时 ,由于经验丰富的国外企业已将凭借实力占据国际市场 ,使得我国环保机械企业在国际市场竞争中处于不利地位。从另一方面讲 ,中国加入WTO可以促进我国政府采取有力措施 ,加强对环保市场的监管 ,克服无序竞争 ,为国内企业营造良好的竞争环境 ;加入WTO可以加快国内环保机械企业技术创新 ,开发具有国际水准的拳头产品 ,增强市场竞争力 ,同时 ,可以推动国内产业结构调整及资本运营 ,使环保机械企业快速发展壮大 ;另外 ,WTO的加入可以迫使国内环保机械企业学习国外先进经验 ,掌握全球经济知识 ,夯实参与国际市场竞争的基础。     

The effects of license plate-based driving restrictions on air quality: Theory and empirical evidence

A typical driving restriction prohibits drivers from using their vehicles on given weekdays, based on the last digits of their vehicles’ license plates. A number of cities in developing countries have used license plate-based driving restrictions as a policy for reducing urban air pollution and traffic congestion. This paper develops a theoretical model of the effects of license plate-based driving restrictions on air quality that combines an economic model with information about the sources and atmospheric chemistry of different air pollutants. We then draw upon suggestive empirical evidence from license plate-based driving restrictions implemented in Bogotá, Colombia. Consistent with our theory model, we find suggestive empirical evidence that under certain circumstances, due to substitution, the purchase of a second car, the use of alternative modes of transportation, and/or atmospheric chemistry, it is possible for license plate-based driving restrictions to increase air pollution. Also consistent with our theory, we find that license plate-based driving restrictions may have different effects on different air pollutants, reflecting heterogeneity in the sources and atmospheric chemistry of the pollutants. In particular, owing to atmospheric chemistry, it is possible for a license plate-based driving restriction to cause a significant decrease in NO and a significant increase in NO₂, NO_x, and O₃.     

Identifying crash type propensity using real-time traffic data on freeways

Introduction: We examine the effects of various traffic parameters on type of road crash. Method: Multivariate probit models are specified on 4-years of data from the A4-A86 highway section in the Ile-de-France region, France. Results: Empirical findings indicate that crash type can almost exclusively be defined by the prevailing traffic conditions shortly before its occurrence. Rear-end crashes involving two vehicles were found to be more probable for relatively low values of both speed and density, rear-end crashes involving more than two vehicles appear to be more probable under congested conditions, while single-vehicle crashes appear to be largely geometry-dependent. Impact on Industry: Results could be integrated in a real-time traffic management application.     

道路交通噪声对包铁工校教学环境的影响的分析

临街学校受到交通噪声干扰,影响了教学环境,本文通过调查实测了巴彦塔拉大街包铁工校所在地段交通噪声状况,分析了噪声对学校教学的影响。     

新陈代谢模型滑动指标检验及其在道路交通噪声预测中的应用

定义了灰色新陈代谢模型的滑动指标,实现了对新陈代谢模型各项精度指标及其稳定性的动态检验。对长春市1995年～2006年城市道路交通干线噪声监测的数据运用灰色系统理论,分别建立了3种预测模型,并对这3种模型的各项滑动指标、一步预测滚动指标分别进行了检验。     

Application of machine learning technique for optimizing roadside design to decrease barrier crash costs,a quantile regression model approach

Introduction: In-transport vehicles often leave the travel lane and encroach onto natural objects on the roadsides. These types of crashes are called run-off the road crashes (ROR). Such crashes accounts for a significant proportion of fatalities and severe crashes. Roadside barrier installation would be warranted if they could reduce the severity of these types of crashes. However, roadside barriers still account for a significant proportion of severe crashes in Wyoming. The impact of the crash severity would be higher if barriers are poorly designed, which could result in override or underride barrier crashes. Several studies have been conducted to identify optimum values of barrier height. However, limited studies have investigated the monetary benefit associated with adjusting the barrier heights to the optimal values. In addition, few studies have been conducted to model barrier crash cost. This is because the crash cost is a heavily skewed distribution, and well-known distributions such as linear or poison models are incapable of capturing the distribution. A semi-parametric distribution such as asymmetric Laplace distribution can be used to account for this type of sparse distribution. Method: Interaction between different predictors were considered in the analysis. Also, to account for exposure effects across various barriers, barrier lengths and traffic volumes were incorporated in the models. This study is conducted by using a novel machine-learning-based cost-benefit optimization to provide an efficient guideline for decision makers. This method was used for predicting barrier crash costs without barrier enhancement. Subsequently the benefit was obtained by optimizing traffic barrier height and recalculating the benefit and cost. The trained model was used for crash cost prediction on barriers with and without crashes. Results: The results of optimization clearly demonstrated the benefit of optimizing the heights of road barriers around the state. Practical Applications: The findings can be utilized by the Wyoming Department of Transportation (WYDOT) to determine the heights of which barriers should be optimized first. Other states can follow the procedure described in this paper to upgrade their roadside barriers.     

Land-traffic crash leading to passenger vehicle submersion,drowning and other fatal injuries: A 44-year study based on records from the Finnish Crash Data Institute

Background: Land motor traffic crash (LMTC) -related drownings are an overlooked and preventable cause of injury death. The aim of this study was to analyze the profile of water-related LMTCs involving passenger cars and leading to drowning and fatal injuries in Finland, 1972 through 2015. Materials and methods: The database of the Finnish Crash Data Institute (FCDI) that gathers detailed information on fatal traffic accidents provided records on all LMTCs leading to drowning during the study period and, from 2002 to 2015, on all water-related LMTCs, regardless of the cause of death. For each crash, we considered variables on circumstances, vehicle, and fatality profiles. Results: During the study period, the FCDI investigated 225 water-related LMTCs resulting in 285 fatalities. The majority of crashes involved passenger cars (124), and the cause of death was mostly drowning (167). Only 61 (36.5%) fatalities suffered some–generally mild–injuries. The crashes frequently occurred during fall or summer (63.7%), in a river or ditch (60.5%), and resulted in complete vehicle’s submersion (53.7 %). Half of the crashes occurred in adverse weather conditions and in over 40% of the cases, the driver had exceeded the speed limit. Among drivers, 77 (68.8%) tested positive for alcohol (mean BAC 1.8%). Conclusion: Multidisciplinary investigations of LMTCs have a much higher potential than do exclusive police and medico-legal investigations. The risk factors of water-related LMTCs are similar to those of other traffic crashes. However, generally the fatal event in water-related LMTC is not the crash itself, but drowning. The paucity of severe physical injuries suggests that victims’ functional capacity is usually preserved during vehicle submersion. Practical Applications: In water-related LMTCs, expansion of safety measures is warranted from general traffic-injury prevention to prevention of drowning, including development of safety features for submerged vehicles and simple self-rescue protocols to escape from a sinking vehicle.