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201.
202.
Surface water methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) concentrations and fluxes were investigated in two subtropical coastal embayments (Bramble Bay and Deception Bay, which are part of the greater Moreton Bay, Australia). Measurements were done at 23 stations in seven campaigns covering different seasons during 2010–2012. Water–air fluxes were estimated using the Thin Boundary Layer approach with a combination of wind and currents-based models for the estimation of the gas transfer velocities. The two bays were strong sources of both CH4 and N2O with no significant differences in the degree of saturation of both gases between them during all measurement campaigns. Both CH4 and N2O concentrations had strong temporal but minimal spatial variability in both bays. During the seven seasons, CH4 varied between 500% and 4000% saturation while N2O varied between 128 and 255% in the two bays. Average seasonal CH4 fluxes for the two bays varied between 0.5 ± 0.2 and 6.0 ± 1.5 mg CH4/(m2·day) while N2O varied between 0.4 ± 0.1 and 1.6 ± 0.6 mg N2O/(m2·day). Weighted emissions (t CO2-e) were 63%–90% N2O dominated implying that a reduction in N2O inputs and/or nitrogen availability in the bays may significantly reduce the bays' greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. Emissions data for tropical and subtropical systems is still scarce. This work found subtropical bays to be significant aquatic sources of both CH4 and N2O and puts the estimated fluxes into the global context with measurements done from other climatic regions. 相似文献
203.
Uncertain future payoffs and irreversible costs characterize investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Under these conditions, it is relevant to analyze investment decisions in a real options framework, as this approach takes into account the economic value associated with investment time flexibility. In this paper, we provide an overview of the literature adopting a real option approach to analyze investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation, and examine how the uncertain impacts of climate change on the condition of the human environment, risk preferences, and strategic interactions among decisions-makers have been modeled. We found that the complex nature of uncertainties associated with climate change is typically only partially taken into account and that the analysis is usually limited to decisions taken by individual risk neutral profit maximizers. Our findings call for further research to fill the identified gaps.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01342-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献
204.
If the threshold that triggers climate catastrophe is known with certainty, and the benefits of avoiding catastrophe are high relative to the costs, treaties can easily coordinate countries' behavior so as to avoid the threshold. Where the net benefits of avoiding catastrophe are lower, treaties typically fail to help countries cooperate to avoid catastrophe, sustaining only modest cuts in emissions. These results are unaffected by uncertainty about the impact of catastrophe. By contrast, uncertainty about the catastrophic threshold normally causes coordination to collapse. Whether the probability density function has “thin” or “fat” tails makes little difference. 相似文献
205.
Accounting for risk and uncertainty in determining preferred strategies for adapting to future climate change 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Tony Prato 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2008,13(1):47-60
Individuals, businesses, and policymakers face the problem of selecting a preferred strategy for adapting a managed ecosystem
to future climate change when there is risk and/or uncertainty about future climate change and its ecosystem impacts, and
the conditional outcomes of adaptive strategies (i.e., performance of an adaptive strategy given a particular future climate
change scenario occurs). Evaluation methods for this purpose are described for two cases; one in which the decision-maker
can (climate risk case) and cannot (climate uncertainty case) assign probabilities to future climate change scenarios. Fuzzy
sets are used to characterize uncertainty regarding both future climate change, and the conditional outcomes of adaptive strategies.
The preferred conditional adaptive strategy for a future climate change scenario is determined by ordering the adaptive strategies
for that scenario using a fuzzy set operation. Two methods are described for determining the adaptive strategy that is preferred
across all climate change scenarios. The preferred overall adaptive strategy for the climate risk case is determined by maximizing
a performance index for strategies. The preferred overall adaptive strategy for the climate uncertainty case is determined
using the minimax regret criterion, which selects the strategy that minimizes the maximum loss in performance that can occur
across all strategies and climate change scenarios. Ways for making the evaluation methods dynamic are considered. 相似文献
206.
Effective planning of resources management is important for facilitating socio-economic development and eco-environmental sustainability. Such a planning effort is complicated with a variety of uncertain, dynamic and nonlinear factors as well as their interactions. In this study, an inexact-stochastic quadratic programming with recourse (ISQP-R) method is developed for reflecting dynamics of system uncertainties based on a complete set of scenarios as well as tackling nonlinearities in the objective function to reflect the effects of marginal utility on system benefits and costs. Moreover, since penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, the ISQP-R can support the analysis of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised targets are violated. The developed method is applied to a case study of planning resources management and developing regional ecological sustainability. The results have been generated and are helpful for decision makers in not only identifying desired resources-allocation strategies but also gaining insight into the tradeoff between economic objective and eco-environment violation risk. 相似文献
207.
Automatic sensitivity analysis of a finite volume model for two-dimensional shallow water flows 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Given a numerical model for solving two-dimensional shallow water equations, we are interested in the robustness of the simulation
by identifying the rate of change of the water depths and discharges with respect to a change in the bottom friction coefficients.
Such a sensitivity analysis can be carried out by computing the corresponding derivatives. Automatic differentiation (AD)
is an efficient numerical method, free of approximation errors, to evaluate derivatives of the objective function specified
by the computer program, Rubar20 for example. In this paper AD software tool Tapenade is used to compute forward derivatives. Numerical tests were done to show the robustness of the model and to demonstrate
the efficiency of these AD-derivatives. 相似文献
208.
209.
In conjunction with socioeconomic development in watersheds, increasingly challenging problems, such as scarcity of water
resources and environmental deterioration, have arisen. Watershed management is a useful tool for dealing with these issues
and maintaining sustainable development at the watershed scale. The complex and uncertain characteristics of watershed systems
have a great impact on decisions about countermeasures and other techniques that will be applied in the future. An optimization
method based on scenario analysis is proposed in this paper as a means of handling watershed management under uncertainty.
This method integrates system analysis, forecast methods, and scenario analysis, as well as the contributions of stakeholders
and experts, into a comprehensive framework. The proposed method comprises four steps: system analyses, a listing of potential
engineering techniques and countermeasures, scenario analyses, and the optimal selection of countermeasures and engineering
techniques. The proposed method was applied to the case of the Lake Qionghai watershed in southwestern China, and the results
are reported in this paper. This case study demonstrates that the proposed method can be used to deal efficiently with uncertainties
at the watershed level. Moreover, this method takes into consideration the interests of different groups, which is crucial
for successful watershed management. In particular, social, economic, environmental, and resource systems are all considered
in order to improve the applicability of the method. In short, the optimization method based on scenario analysis proposed
here is a valuable tool for watershed management. 相似文献
210.
Building Consensus in Environmental Impact Assessment Through Multicriteria Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) increasingly is being applied in environmental impact assessment (EIA). In this article,
two MCDA techniques, stochastic analytic hierarchy process and compromise programming, are combined to ascertain the environmental
impacts of and to rank two alternative sites for Mexico City’s new airport. Extensive sensitivity analyses were performed
to determine the probability of changes in rank ordering given uncertainty in the hierarchy structure, decision criteria weights,
and decision criteria performances. Results demonstrate that sensitivity analysis is fundamental for attaining consensus among
members of interdisciplinary teams and for settling debates in controversial projects. It was concluded that sensitivity analysis
is critical for achieving a transparent and technically defensible MCDA implementation in controversial EIA. 相似文献