岷江上游生态环境现状与可持续发展对策

岷江上游是成都平原的生态屏障和水源生命线。但几十年来，该地区植被的大量砍伐和土地的不合理利用引起了一系列生态恶化问题。在概述岷江上游生态环境现状的基础上，分析了其形成原因：地貌不稳定性、人口过度增长、土地资源的不合理利用。最后提出了实施有计划地退耕还林还草、综合农业措施改良、控制人口增长和推动剩余劳动力转移、构建自然资源可持续利用的战略体系、加强法制监督等可持续发展对策。     

岷江上游生态脆弱性的模糊评价

岷江上游是四川省乃至我国西南的重要生态屏障，但由于自然条件和人为活动的影响，该区域已成为典型的生态脆弱区。选取了反映该地区生态脆弱性的14个代表性指标，根据四川省和全国的对比结果拟定了相应的分级和评价标准，并采用模糊综合评价法对其生态脆弱度进行了评价，得出了该区域处于高度脆弱状态的结果，加强岷江上游生态脆弱区的整治势在必行。     

The last polar dinosaurs: high diversity of latest Cretaceous arctic dinosaurs in Russia

A latest Cretaceous (68 to 65 million years ago) vertebrate microfossil assemblage discovered at Kakanaut in northeastern Russia reveals that dinosaurs were still highly diversified in Arctic regions just before the Cretaceous–Tertiary mass extinction event. Dinosaur eggshell fragments, belonging to hadrosaurids and non-avian theropods, indicate that at least several latest Cretaceous dinosaur taxa could reproduce in polar region and were probably year-round residents of high latitudes. Palaeobotanical data suggest that these polar dinosaurs lived in a temperate climate (mean annual temperature about 10°C), but the climate was apparently too cold for amphibians and ectothermic reptiles. The high diversity of Late Maastrichtian dinosaurs in high latitudes, where ectotherms are absent, strongly questions hypotheses according to which dinosaur extinction was a result of temperature decline, caused or not by the Chicxulub impact.     

Climate variability,water levels,and fish catch in the Upper East Region of Ghana

The aim of the research was to investigate the effects of climate variability on selected water bodies in the Upper East Region of Ghana using time series decomposition and simple linear regression analyses. Data on temperature and rainfall (1960–2015), annual total fish catch (1996–2016), and the recorded water levels (1987–2015) of a major reservoir, the Tono, were used. Time series decomposition analyses were performed on the rainfall, temperature, and water level data to identify their trends. While temperature was increasing, rainfall was decreasing and resulted in a decrease in the water level in the Tono Reservoir. The decreasing water level in the reservoir made fish catch easier, which led to overfishing. Out of the other 39 dugouts studied, 8 (21%) were silted. Also, rainfall was decreasing at 4.4% per decade and minimum and maximum temperatures were increasing at 2.5% and 0.03% per decade, respectively. The minimum, maximum, and mean water levels of the Tono Reservoir were 3.7, 8.0, and 4.9 meters (m), respectively. The water level of the Tono Reservoir was decreasing by ?0.08 m per year. It is concluded that the water level in the Tono Reservoir was continually decreasing as a result of decreasing rainfall and increasing maximum and minimum temperatures. To maintain a much more stable microclimate and decrease the siltation rate of the reservoirs, farmers are advised to stop farming along the banks of water bodies and avoid clearing vegetation. Fishermen are also encouraged to adopt fish farming in enclosed areas within the reservoir to meet the growing protein demands in the Upper East Region of Ghana.     

导致上西里西亚工业区儿童血铅水平升高环境和社会经济因素研究

本文集中在横向分析近期波兰儿童铅暴露和铅暴露增加背后的社会经济因素。在上西里西亚工业区,铅是分布最广泛的有毒重金属之一。儿童血铅水平升高关系儿童幸福,不断引起严重关切。本研究涉及在1999 - 2013年间,上西里西亚地区3岁到18岁的4 882名儿童。记录了每一个孩子血液中铅的浓度。孩子的父母被要求回答关于儿童接触铅的环境和家庭社会经济条件的问卷调查。铅暴露增加的因素包括：父母受教育程度较低,父母失业、父母的职业铅暴,家庭的贫穷社会经济地位,在家吸烟,生活在建筑物底层,食用本地种植的蔬菜和水果,在污染环境中长期进行户外活动和男性性别。铅的环境暴露仍然是导致上西里西亚地区儿童慢性铅中毒的主要因素。与儿童血铅浓度关系最大的社会经济因素是儿童父母的低教育水平。
精选自Wojciech Pelc, Natalia Pawlas, Micha? Dobrakowski, S?awomir Kasperczyk. Environmental and socioeconomic factors contributing to elevated blood lead levels in children from industrial area of Upper Silesia. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 35, Issue 10, pages 2597–2603, October 2016. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3429
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3429/full
     

Five Hundred Years of Hydrological Drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin1

Abstract: This article evaluates drought scenarios of the Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) considering multiple drought variables for the past 500 years and positions the current drought in terms of the magnitude and frequency. Drought characteristics were developed considering water‐year data of UCRB’s streamflow, and basin‐wide averages of the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) and the Palmer Z Index. Streamflow and drought indices were reconstructed for the last 500 years using a principal component regression model based on tree‐ring data. The reconstructed streamflow showed higher variability as compared with reconstructed PHDI and reconstructed Palmer Z Index. The magnitude and severity of all droughts were obtained for the last 500 years for historical and reconstructed drought variables and ranked accordingly. The frequency of the current drought was obtained by considering two different drought frequency statistical approaches and three different methods of determining the beginning and end of the drought period (annual, 5‐year moving, and ten year moving average). It was concluded that the current drought is the worst in the observed record period (1923‐2004), but 6th to 14th largest in terms of magnitude and 1st to 12th considering severity in the past 500 years. Similarly, the current drought has a return period ranging from 37 to 103 years based on how the drought period was determined. It was concluded that if the 10‐year moving average is used for defining the drought period, the current drought appears less severe in terms of magnitude and severity in the last 500 years compared with the results using 1‐ and 5‐year averages.     

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND FLOOD FREQUENCY ESTIMATION FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVERS1

ABSTRACT: This paper considers the distribution of flood flows in the Upper Mississippi, Lower Missouri, and Illinois Rivers and their relationship to climatic indices. Global climate patterns including El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation explained very little of the variations in flow peaks. However, large and statistically significant upward trends were found in many gauge records along the Upper Mississippi and Missouri Rivers: at Hermann on the Missouri River above the confluence with the Mississippi (p = 2 percent), at Hannibal on the Mississippi River (p < 0.1 percent), at Meredosia on the Illinois River (p = 0.7 percent), and at St. Louis on the Mississippi below the confluence of all three rivers (p = 1 percent). This challenges the traditional assumption that flood series are independent and identically distributed random variables and suggests that flood risk changes over time.     

Investigation of the Curve Number Method For Surface Runoff Estimation In Tropical Regions

This study tests the applicability of the curve number (CN) method within the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to estimate surface runoff at the watershed scale in tropical regions. To do this, surface runoff simulated using the CN method was compared with observed runoff in numerous rainfall‐runoff events in three small tropical watersheds located in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The CN method generally performed well in simulating surface runoff in the studied watersheds (Nash‐Sutcliff efficiency [NSE] > 0.7; percent bias [PBIAS] < 32%). Moreover, there was no difference in the performance of the CN method in simulating surface runoff under low and high antecedent rainfall (PBIAS for both antecedent conditions: ~30%; modified NSE: ~0.4). It was also found that the method accurately estimated surface runoff at high rainfall intensity (e.g., PBIAS < 15%); however, at low rainfall intensity, the CN method repeatedly underestimated surface runoff (e.g., PBIAS > 60%). This was possibly due to low infiltrability and valley bottom saturated areas typical of many tropical soils, indicating that there is scope for further improvements in the parameterization/representation of tropical soils in the CN method for runoff estimation, to capture low rainfall‐intensity events. In this study the retention parameter was linked to the soil moisture content, which seems to be an appropriate approach to account for antecedent wetness conditions in the tropics.     

Land Use and Land Cover Change Analysis and Prediction in the Upper Reaches of the Minjiang River,China

Scientists have aimed at exploring land use and land cover change (LUCC) and modeling future landscape pattern in order to improve our understanding of the causes and consequences of these phenomena. This study addresses LUCC in the upper reaches of Minjiang River, China, from 1974 to 2000. Based on remotely sensed images, LUCC and landscape pattern change were assessed using cross-tabulation and landscape metrics. Then, using the CLUE-S model, changes in area of four types of land cover were predicted for two scenarios considering forest polices over the next 20 years. Results showed that forestland decreased from 1974 to 2000 due to continuous deforestation, while grassland and shrubland increased correspondingly. At the same time, the farmland and settlement land increased dramatically. Landscape fragmentation in the study area accompanied these changes. Forestland, grassland, and farmland take opposite trajectories in the two scenarios, as does landscape fragmentation. LUCC has led to ecological consequences, such as biodiversity loss and lowering of ecological carrying capacity.     

汇流阈值对提取叶尔羌河上游流域面积高程积分的影响

不同地貌单元,其汇流阈值的界定差异较大,而不同的汇流阈值直接影响河流长度、河网密度以及集水区面积的提取结果,因此,汇流阈值的界定是提取流域面积高程积分的关键.以叶尔羌河上游流域为研究对象,基于不同分辨率数字高程模型数据对叶尔羌河上游流域面积高程积分的提取结果,确定适宜分辨率的数字高程模型数据,探讨不同汇流阈值对叶尔羌河...