Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark

Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool to evaluate environmental consequences of policy initiatives. However, the usefulness of such models is often restricted by the fact that these models only include a limited set of environmental impacts, which are often energy-related emissions. In order to evaluate the development in the overall environmental pressure correctly, these model systems must be extended. In this article an integrated macroeconomic model system of the Danish economy with environmental modules of energy related emissions is extended to include the agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification. Next to the energy sector, the agricultural sector is the most important contributor to these environmental themes and subsequently the extended model complex calculates more than 99% of the contribution to both climate change and acidification. Environmental sub-models are developed for agriculture-related emissions of CH(4), N(2)O and NH(3). Agricultural emission sources related to the production specific activity variables are mapped and emission dependent parameters are identified in order to calculate emission coefficients. The emission coefficients are linked to the economic activity variables of the Danish agricultural production. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agriculture-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection of the general economic development and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector.     

基于线性溶解能关系预测污染物在被动采样材料与环境介质之间的分配系数

半透膜采样装置(SPMD)作为一种重要的被动采样器,被用于监测有机污染物的环境水平.SPMD的采样材料是置于低密度聚乙烯"口袋"中的三油酸甘油酯.根据有机污染物在被动采样材料与环境介质之间的平衡分配系数(包括被动采样材料/空气分配系数K(sA).和被动采样材料/水分配系数K(sw))值,可估算SPMD的采样速率,也可计...     

Diameter growth models for mixed-species stands of Coastal British Columbia including thinning and fertilization effects

In this study, diameter growth models for three species growing in mixed-stands of Coastal British Columbia (BC), Canada, under a variety of silvicultural treatments were developed. The three species were: Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.), and western redcedar (Thuja plicata Donn). A Box and Lucas model (1959) was initially fitted to the diameter growth series for each tree, as this model is very flexible and was based on processes reflective of the metabolic processes governing tree growth. Next, a random coefficients modelling approach (i.e., parameter prediction approach) was used to modify the estimated parameters for each species using functions of tree size and stage of development, site productivity, and inter-tree competition variables, while accounting for temporal correlation within trees. Impacts of fertilization on diameter growth were estimated by including the time since fertilization as an additional variable. Since state variables that are changed as a result of thinning were already in the model, accurate results post-thinning were obtained with no changes to the model. For the combined effects of thinning and fertilization, a two-step additive approach was used, where the state variables were changed following thinning and the diameter increment was modified for fertilization using the time since fertilization variable. Results indicated that multiple treatments sustain a change in growth for a longer time period following treatment than thinning or fertilization alone.     

分子距边矢量与烃类化合物的溶解度及辛醇/水分配系数定量关系的研究

定义并计算了烃类化合物（包括链烃、环烃、芳香烃）的分子距离－边数矢量（μ矢量），藉助多元线性回归技术分别建立了137个烃类化合物的μ矢量与这些物质的正辛醇／水分配系数lgKow及水溶解度的定量结构／性质相关关系模型。模型具有良好的稳定性和预测能力。说明经改进的μ矢量能更好地反映烃类化合物的结构特性。     

Channel Roughness in North Carolina Mountain Streams

Channel roughness, often described by Manning's n, is used to represent the amount of resistance that flow encounters, and has direct implications on velocity and discharge. Ideally, n is calculated from a long‐term record of channel discharge and hydraulic geometry. In the absence of these data, a combination of photo references and a validated qualitative method is preferable to simply choosing n arbitrarily or from a table. The purpose of this study was to use United States Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data to calculate roughness coefficients for streams in the mountains of North Carolina. Five USGS gage stations were selected for this study, representing drainage areas between 71.5 and 337 km². Photo references of the study sites are presented. Measured discharges were combined with hydraulic geometry at a cross‐section to calculate roughness coefficients for flows of interest. At bankfull flow, n ranged between 0.039 and 0.064 for the five study sites. Roughness coefficients were not constant for all flows in a channel, and fluctuated over a large range. At all sites, roughness was highest during low‐flow conditions, then quickly decreased as flow increased, up to the bankfull elevation.     

基于QSAR模型预测有机污染物在XAD与空气中的分配系数

基于定量构效关系(QSAR),运用线性(逐步多元回归MLR)和非线性(支持向量机SVM)两种计算方法开发了两种可靠且高效预测聚苯乙烯二乙烯基苯树脂(XAD)和空气之间分配系数(K_XAD-A)的模型.构建模型的数据包含醇类(Alcohols),苯类(Benzenes),多氯联苯(PCBs)和多环芳香烃(PAHs)等,共计70种有机污染物.两个模型的决定系数R²_adj和外部验证系数Q²_ext均在0.930以上,同时所有物质均在定义的应用域内,结果表明两种QSAR模型有较高的拟合度、稳健性和较为优秀的预测能力,且非线性(SVM)模型比线性(MLR)模型的拟合效果更好.     

Regression models for some solute distribution equilibria in the terrestrial environment

Sorption coefficients (K_p) of several organochlorine insecticides (OCs) in volcanic ash silt from Central Java are presented.

Selected experimental and estimated octanol‐water partition coefficient (P) values are used to study log‐log regressions with K_p data collected from the literature (PAHs, chlorophenols, phenylureas, chloro‐s‐triazines, carbamates and organophosphorus insecticides) and those of the OCs determined in the present study. Leaching distances and bioactivities in soil are correlated with the K_p values of the pesticides, and with the organic matter and the water content of the soil.     

WATER CONSTRAINTS ON EMERGING ENERGY PRODUCTION1

ABSTRACT: A comprehensive nationwide recognizance-level assessment of water needs for energy development over the 1985 to 2000 time frame and options for overcoming any actual or potential water supply problems are summarized. Water requirements for energy production and other uses are totaled for each geographic region of the United States and compared with available stream flow to identify regions with potentially inadequate water supplies to meet expanding energy needs. Water quality impacts and water-related institutional factors affecting energy development are also considered. It is concluded that, if proper planning measures are not initiated, water demands for energy production will not be satisfied by the year 2000, particularly in those areas with known fossil energy resources. No unmanageable water quality problems are foreseen, and water-related institutional factors will primarily delay rather than exclud energy development.     

Air quality assessment for land disposal of industrial wastes

Air pollution from hazardous waste landfills and lagoons is largely unknown. Routine monitoring of toxic air contaminants associated with hazardous waste facilities is difficult and very costly. The method presented in this paper would be useful for air quality assessment in the absence of monitoring data. It may be used as a screening process to examine the question of whether or not volatilization is considered to be significant for a given contaminant and also to evaluate permit applications for new hazardous waste facilities concerning waste volatilization problems.