MULTICRITERIA PROGRAMMING OF WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS FOR RURAL AREAS1

ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to present a multicriteria methodology for decision aid at the stage of programming a water supply system (WSS) for a rural area. The programming stage is an intermediate one between planning and designing water supply facilities, and can be decomposed into two problems: (a) setting up a priority order of water users, taking into account socio-economic criteria; and (b) choosing the best technical variant of the WSS. Among the criteria considered for the latter problem, there is a criterion of distance between the socio-economic priorities of users and the precedence orders of users according to the technical programming, which plays a coordinating role between problems (a) and (b). All steps of the presented methodology are illustrated by a real case study.     

MULTIOBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUES FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: Six applications of multiobjective decision making techniques for finding optimal or satisfying operating rules for reservoir systems are presented. The examples include situations with hydropower vs. water supply (for irrigation), flood control vs. low flow augmentation, selection of an operating rule, low-flow vs. reliability, and low flow and recreation vs. water quality. The techniques applied include the constraint method, compromise programming, goal programming, Tchebycheff approach (max-mm), Consensus, and ELECTRE I and II.     

安全心理测量技术在安全科学技术中的地位和作用

探讨心理测量在安全科学中的地位和作用,提出将心理测量用于安全科学的必要性,着重论述心理测量运用于安全科学技术领域的可行性和科学性,分析和讨论了安全心理测量在安全领域中的应用前景。     

Water supply development and tariffs in Tanzania: From free water policy towards cost recovery

The article describes the historical development of water tariff policy in Tanzania from the colonial times to present. After gaining independence, the country introduced “free” water policy in its rural areas. Criticism against this policy was expressed already in the 1970s, but it was not until the late 1980s that change became unavoidable. All the while urban water tariffs continued to decline in real terms. In rural and periurban areas of Tanzania consumers often have to pay substantial amounts of money for water to resellers and vendors since the public utilities are unable to provide operative service. Besides, only a part of the water bills are actually collected. Now that the free water supply policy has been officially abandoned, the development of water tariffs and the institutions in general are a great challenge for the country.     

PROBABILISTIC GREAT LAKES HYDROLOGY OUTLOOKS1

ABSTRACT: The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory developed a semiautomatic software package for making hydrological outlooks for the Great Lakes. These include basin moisture storages, basin runoff, lake heat storage, lake evaporation, heat fluxes, and net lake supplies, one or more full months into the future. The package combines GLERL's rainfall-runoff and lake evaporation models with near real-time data reduction techniques to represent current system states. Users select historical meteorologic record segments as candidate future scenarios to generate deterministic near real-time hydrological outlooks. GLERL has extended the package to make probabilistic outlooks for a decision-maker who must estimate the risk associated with his decisions. GLERL matches National Weather Service meteorologic outlook probabilities by selecting groups of historical meteorologic sequences, and constructs embedded outlook intervals for each hydrologic variable of interest. Interval probabilities are assigned from comparisons over a recent evaluation period. This physically-based approach for generating outlooks offers the ability, as compared to other statistically-based approaches, to incorporate improvements in the understanding, of process dynamics as they occur in the future and to respond reasonably to conditions initial to a forecast (such as heat and moisture storages), not observed in the past.     

纺织工业安全生产特点及安全对策管理

简要分析了纺织工业安全生产的特点及安全管理的难点,从而针对性地应用了安全对策管理,并取得一定成效。     

安全科学管理与人为失效研究——分析铁路运输中的人为失效规律

本文论述了安全科学中的人为失效理论与实践问題,即理论上研究了作为一门独立的人为安全学的基本范畴及框架,实践上分析了北京铁路分局某站近30年的事故情况,还探讨了减少人为事故对铁路安全运输的意义、作用及实施对策。     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL TO EVALUATE HYDROLOGIC RISK IN WATER RESOURCE SYSTEM DESIGN1

In this paper, a procedure for analyzing a water resource system with special emphasis on evaluation of acceptable economic risk due to occasional failures to deliver water is proposed. The basic methodology includes the development of a simple mathematical model which describes the physical hydrologic and economic characteristics of a single reservoir irrigation and city water supply system and an evaluation of economic benefits of the system with full and partial deliveries of water. The system is simulated for various combinations of decision variables (system magnitudes) and an optimum design is obtained by response surface technology. Emphasis is placed on the basic model and methodology although, in order to introduce some realism, the procedure is applied to data based on the existing reservoir system on the South Concho River in West Central Texas.     

SIMULATION/OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUES FOR MULTI-BASIN WATER RESOURCE PLANNING1

A set of simulation and optimization tools capable of analyzing the development and operation of a complex, multi-basin, interconnected water resource are explained. These models provide valuable information regarding the important questions: (1) “When should new projects be build?” (2) “How big should they be?” and (3) “How should the system be operated?” Since these tools were developed by and for practicing engineers, their applicability to real-world problems is mandatory. To assure this, testing was done on an actual proposed project, the Texas Water System.     

THE POLITICAL INFLUENCE OF RESIDENTIAL CONSUMERS ON WATER RATES1

ABSTRACT: The regulatory process such as that for water rates can be viewed as a bargaining process between regulators, utility management, and consumers. This bargaining process involves both political and economic influences. In an attempt to empirically verify that utility rates are a product of both economic and political factors, a sample of publicly-owned water utilities was subjected to regression analysis. As expected, cost and cost-related factors were positive and significant determinants of residential water rates. Using an admittedly imperfect measure of residential user political influence, there was evidence that increased political activity results in lower water rates. Furthermore, the political influence and water rate linkage is more evident in small water utilities than in larger suppliers.