黄河流域区域发展优势与经济带生成可能

基于进化经济学和进化经济地理学的理论,文章重点讨论了黄河流域的区域发展优势和建成黄河流域经济带的可能性。研究从黄河流域发展的历史出发,论证了黄河流域经济发展的区域地理学本性(nature)条件和现实可能性:第一,黄河流域经济发展的区域地理学本性条件是,该区域已经完成了农业经济建设,出现了遍在性的工业化和经济区人口聚集,特别是经过长期聚集,黄河流域已经形成了中国的人口密集带,形成了具有区域发展优势的中原城市群。第二,在分析黄河流域区域发展优势基础上,提出建成“大中原-黄河经济带”的可能性及其发展途径,即在生态保护的前提下,坚持地理环境的鲁棒性建设,坚持城市创新发展,坚持发展新型产业。第三,地区发展政策重点应该关注中原城市群的工业化-城市化发育和一体化产业链的形成,根据新经济地理学理论,提倡城市产业专业化方向,打破省界限制,发挥经济区的地缘结构优势,在空间上与环渤海经济带融合,完成黄河流域经济带高质量发展的战略构想。     

海河流域植物中碳的输出(或存留)量和土壤中的库存量

研究了海河流域地区植物中碳的输出量和土壤库存量。结果指出：不同作物－土壤系统中各种作物碳的输出量和归还量有很大不同,作物碳输出量一般为归还量的３－１７倍;海河流域地区不同子流域土壤中碳的库存量也有差异,以滹沱河子流域土壤碳的库存量最高,大清河子流域土壤中碳的库存量最低。     

基于DEMATEL的区域洪涝灾害恢复力影响因素及评价指标体系研究——以巢湖流域为例

影响洪涝灾害恢复力的因素众多且相互关联,识别和区分这些影响因素,找到因素间互相影响程度和因果关系,对于明确洪涝灾害恢复力关键因素,快速找到需要改善的因素具有重要意义。通过分析灾害恢复力的内涵,从自然维、社会维、经济维、技术维、管理维5个维度构建区域洪涝灾害恢复力的影响因素指标体系,应用DEMATEL方法分析区域洪涝灾害恢复力影响因素之间的关系,并以巢湖流域为例凝练出适合该区域的洪涝灾害恢复力评价指标体系,结果表明,一级指标中自然维、经济维对其他因素影响最为显著,二级指标中政府财政支撑能力、土地因子、地形因子对其他影响因素的影响最大;而一级指标中经济维和社会维与其他因素关系最为密切,二级指标中政府财政支撑能力、区域经济实力、土地因子处于核心的位置。从整体影响输出上看,一级指标中原因因素共有2个,分别为自然维、经济维,且以经济维为最,二级指标中原因因素有11个,涉及五个维度,包括所有自然维中因素,并以地形因子、政府财政支撑能力、灾害政策法规为重。一级指标中结果因素有3个,分别为管理维、技术维、社会维;二级指标中共有12个,以管理维中的因素为主,相比于原因因素,通过改善结果因素可以更直接的提高区域洪涝灾害恢复力的水平。     

塔里木盆地是新疆生物多样性保护的一个关键区域

在陈昌笃关于确定生物多样性保护关键区域的标准和在新疆境内初步提出了５个关键区域的基础上,根据塔里木盆地古老物种和国家珍稀、濒危物种较多、特有现象较发达及柽柳鹰植物十分丰富和分布有世界上面积最大在胡杨林,加之塔里木盆地生态系统极其脆弱、破坏严重等特点和现状,初步认为,塔里木盆地应是新疆生物多样性保护的一个关键区域。     

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin,Ethiopia1

Kim, Ungtae and Jagath J. Kaluarachchi, 2009. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1361‐1378. Abstract: Climate change affects water resources availability of international river basins that are vulnerable to runoff variability of upstream countries especially with increasing water demands. The upper Blue Nile River Basin is a good example because its downstream countries, Sudan and Egypt, depend solely on Nile waters for their economic development. In this study, the impacts of climate change on both hydrology and water resources operations were analyzed using the outcomes of six different general circulation models (GCMs) for the 2050s. The outcomes of these six GCMs were weighted to provide average future changes. Hydrologic sensitivity, flow statistics, a drought index, and water resources assessment indices (reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability) were used as quantitative indicators. The changes in outflows from the two proposed dams (Karadobi and Border) to downstream countries were also assessed. Given the uncertainty of different GCMs, the simulation results of the weighted scenario suggested mild increases in hydrologic variables (precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and runoff) across the study area. The weighted scenario also showed that low‐flow statistics and the reliability of streamflows are increased and severe drought events are decreased mainly due to increased precipitation. Joint dam operation performed better than single dam operation in terms of both hydropower generation and mean annual storage without affecting the runoff volume to downstream countries, but enhancing flow characteristics and the robustness of streamflows. This study provides useful information to decision makers for the planning and management of future water resources of the study area and downstream countries.     

汉江上游金水河流域近50年气候变化特征及其对生态环境的影响

利用5年滑动平均距平分析、线性回归分析、相关分析及Autoregression 模型等统计分析方法,分析了近50年（1957~2004年）汉江上游金水河流域年度和春、夏、秋、冬4季气温和降水变化特征及其对流域生态环境的影响。结果显示：近50年来金水河流域气候变化呈现气温升高、降水量减少的暖干化趋势。年平均气温总体上升了111℃,同时在上世纪90年代到本世纪初,年平均气温增幅最大,达到06℃;季节变化中,冬季增温最显著（〖WTBX〗p〖WTBZ〗<001）。年平均降水量总体下降了1196 mm,在1985~1997年间,降水量呈现显著波动下降趋势,最大降幅为3452 mm;而季节变化中,夏季下降最明显。在未来10年,流域内气温将持续增加,年平均气温将增加013℃,降水量将逐年减少,年平均降水量将减少78%。金水河流域过去近50年的气候变化对流域内的生态环境产生了较大的影响,从而加剧了流域生态系统的脆弱性,从一定程度上对南水北调中线工程的水资源安全构成了威胁。     

Relations of Habitat-Specific Algal Assemblages to Land Use and Water Chemistry in the Willamette Basin, Oregon

Benthic algal assemblages, water chemistry, and habitat were characterized at 25 stream sites in the Willamette Basin, Oregon, during low flow in 1994. Seventy-three algal samples yielded 420 taxa — mostly diatoms, blue-green algae, and green algae. Algal assemblages from depositional samples were strongly dominated by diatoms (76% mean relative abundance), whereas erosional samples were dominated by blue-green algae (68% mean relative abundance).Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) of semiquantitative and qualitative (presence/absence) data sets identified four environmental variables (maximum specific conductance, % open canopy, pH, and drainage area) that were significant in describing patterns of algal taxa among sites. Based on CCA, four groups of sites were identified: streams in forested basins that supported oligotrophic taxa, such as Diatoma mesodon;small streams in agricultural and urban basins that contained a variety of eutrophic and nitrogen-heterotrophic algal taxa; larger rivers draining areas of mixed land use that supported planktonic, eutrophic, and nitrogen-heterotrophic algal taxa; and streams with severely degraded or absent riparian vegetation (> 75% open canopy) that were dominated by other planktonic, eutrophic, and nitrogen-heterotrophic algal taxa. Patterns in water chemistry were consistent with the algal autecological interpretations and clearly demonstrated relationships between land use, water quality, and algal distribution patterns.     

水污染控制规划的GIS辅助技术研究

以宁波市甬江流域为例，以GIS技术辅助流域水污染控制规划，在ARCGIS90的环境中，完成了流域水系概化、水质评价，并利用GIS的叠置技术，建立功能区划水域－入河排污口－陆上汇流区的对应关系。根据水环境功能区的水质目标，通过建立污染源－水环境质量的输入响应关系，然后利用GIS技术对甬江流域数字高程模型（DEM）进行数字地形分析，得到甬江流域的模拟河网和流域汇水图，构筑了水污染控制单元，作为水环境容量核定和总量分配的基本工作区域。最后利用GIS的可视化表达进行辅助决策，确定各水环境功能区的水环境容量，结合排污状况（包括工业、农业、生活）的分析，得出流域水污染控制的总量控制方案和对策措施。甬江流域水污染控制规划的实践表明，在规划过程中，GIS作为一个必不可少的工具渗透在每一个环节中，为数据管理、空间图形表达和空间决策分析提供有效的工作平台和可靠的技术支持     

Evaluation of oasis ecosystem risk by reliability theory in an arid area： A case study in the Shiyang River Basin, China

Ecosystem risk is a new concept in understanding environmental problems. It is important to study and develop quantitative methods for regional ecosystem risk analysis. In this study, some new indicators and methods for measuring oasis ecosystem risk were established using reliability theory. These indicators are linked to water resource, which is the key restricting factor in arid area oasis ecosystems. They have clear meanings and can also be compared in different arid area oases. A case study in the Liangzhou oasis of the Shiyang River Basin in China shows how to calculate these ecosystem risk indicators. The results of the case study are as follows： the reliability indicator, risk indicator, stability indicator, and integrated loss indicator of the Liangzhou oasis are 0.686, 0.314, 0.743, and 0.301, respectively. This means that the reliability degree of the oasis＇s ecosystem safety is 68.6%; the degree of risk that it is unsafe is 31.4%; the stability degree is 74.3%; and 30.1% of the oasis＇s area is supported by over-exploiting underground water and damaging the lower reaches of the ecosystem. This result can be used as a guide in controlling and managing ecosystem risk in the research area.     

Eco-health evaluation for the Shanghai metropolitan area during the recent industrial transformation (1990-2003)

Shanghai is a cosmopolitan city and one of the most important economic centers in China, but is saddled with serious environmental problems resulting from a recent industrial transformation. This paper examines the interactive relationships between economic growth, eco-efficiency of urban metabolism, and environmental performance of the Shanghai metropolitan area since the 1990s using 15 indicators. This study has revealed an enhanced eco-efficiency of water and energy use as well as an improved overall environmental quality in the central urban districts of Shanghai. Both TGDP (total GDP) and GDP per capita increased rapidly at the annual rate of 16.28% and 15.91%, respectively. In contrast, energy consumed per 10000RMB YUAN GDP (ECG), water consumed per 10000RMB YUAN GDP (WCG), wastewater discharged per 10000RMB YUAN GDP (WWDG), and waste gases emitted per 10000RMB YUAN GDP (WGEG) decreased at the annual rate of 9.34%, 10.69%, 14.57%, and 8.52%, respectively. The rapid decline in ECG, WCG, WWDG, and WGEG indicates an enhanced eco-efficiency of urban metabolism. However, uncontrolled emission of wastes from domestic instead of industrial sources adversely affected the overall environmental quality. In addition, suburban areas have undergone rapid economic growth at the cost of human health deterioration, as measured by mortalities and relative mortality ratios of three major diseases (tumor, respiratory disease, and trauma/toxicosis). With Shanghai serving as the "locomotive" driving the economy of the Yangtze River Basin, effective pollution control policies and a network of regional coordination are urgently needed in the globalization and ecological security of the entire area.