多级模糊决策在地震预报中的应用

本文把多级模糊决策方法应用于地震预报当中。文中详细论证和推导了多级模糊决策方法与模型。该方法使决策部门可以根据输入前兆的变化随时作出合理的对策。文中还给出了地震预报多级模糊决策数字解实例,并用回顾法讨论了1976年松潘7.2级地震的模糊预报决策。     

上海市的灾害隐患及减灾对策

本文从上海市特定的环境角度出发,论述了本市存在的重大灾害隐患,进而提出减轻这些灾害的对策和建议。     

Method to analyze the regional life loss risk by airborne chemicals released after devastating earthquakes: A simulation approach

Widespread chemical plants render human life more vulnerable to major natural disasters such as earthquakes. Recognizing the potential cascading threats initiated by a devastating earthquake, a general methodology for assessing the life loss risks introduced by airborne hazardous chemical dispersion following seismically induced chemical release (SICR) was proposed. With a 600 km × 600 km region in North China as a demonstrative study area, the dispersion of ammonia released from multiple relevant chemical plants that were supposed to be damaged by a devastating earthquake was simulated in a probabilistic manner. Using an ammonia toxicity-fatality relationship and its toxicity concentration threshold, regional life loss and spatial spread were evaluated. The life loss risk was found to be non-prominent but would be very contingent on unfavorable meteorological conditions. Non-parametric correlation analysis revealed that the respective effects of meteorological mixing parameters on the risk exhibit new features in a disaster context, that is, stronger mixing would cause elevation of risk in a region. This preliminary research implied that the risk of chemical-induced life loss after a devastating earthquake deserves attention and a thorough uncertainty evaluation in the future.     

NGO collaboration in community post‐disaster reconstruction: field research following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China

The number of communities affected by disasters has been rising. As a result, non‐governmental organisations (NGOs) that attend community post‐disaster reconstruction are often unable to deliver all requirements and have to develop cooperative approaches. However, this collaboration can cause problems because of the complex environments, the fight for limited resources and uncoordinated management, all of which result in poor service delivery to the communities, adding to their woes. From extensive field research and case studies conducted in the post‐Wenchuan earthquake‐stricken communities, this paper introduces an integrated collaboration framework for community post‐disaster reconstruction with the focus on three types of NGOs: international, government organised and civil. The proposed collaboration framework examines the three interrelated components of organisational structure, operational processes and reconstruction goals/implementation areas. Of great significance in better promoting collaborative participation between NGOs are the crucial concepts of participatory reconstruction, double‐layer collaborative networks, and circular review and revision.     

A disaster scene simulation system in 3D for oil transmission stations: Design and implementation

The disaster scene in three-dimensional (3D) plays a crucial role in disaster emergency management and risk communication of oil transmission stations. However, existing research for the disaster scene mainly focuses on reproducing the disaster environment and rarely predicts the damage state of the disaster-affected object. This paper proposes an object-oriented modeling method that utilizes a multilevel decomposition pattern for disaster scenes. This method combines earthquake vulnerability assessment with 3D visualization technology to predict and characterize the damage state of critical infrastructure in oil transmission stations. To enhance earthquake risk perception, a simulation system is designed and developed, which allows for the construction of virtual scenes and quick simulation of disaster scenes in 3D. The case application shows that the system improves the 3D modeling efficiency of disaster scenes and enhances public awareness of earthquake risks. The simulation system can provide technical support for seismic mitigation planning and emergency management decision-making at oil transmission stations and has good application prospects.     

基于流域演化的泥石流敏感性分析

基于泥石流来源于某些处于特殊演化阶段的分支小流域的理论,分析了面积高程曲线及其参数与泥石流活动的关系。面积高程曲线积分值S表征流域内松散固体物质量,S/2对应的相对高差比值K表征流域源地面积在不同高程的分布,以S和K为参数提出泥石流敏感性分析思路。针对汶川县主要公路(都汶公路和省道303)沿线泥石流敏感性分析,在Arcgis、Matlab等软件的支持下,基于震前1:50 000地形数据,计算了研究区泥石流流域的S和K。根据计算结果,初步判定了各流域的地貌发育阶段,以及流域源地汇水区的高程位置。并根据震后泥石流实际活动情况,对于S小于0.5但又属于震后频发型,或者S值大于0.5但其面积较大且分支较多泥石流沟,进行了次一级子流域的面积高程值计算,判定其易发生泥石流具体源地。最后,根据流域面积高程值S得出了研究区泥石流敏感性分级图,分析结果基本反应了地貌演化对泥石流发生能力的潜在影响。     

汶川地震灾区受灾群众重建意愿实证研究

选择何种重建方式(原址重建或异地搬迁等)是灾后重建的首要问题.所谓重建意愿即在原居住地受到地震等自然灾害破坏时,受灾居民对不同重建方式(原址重建还是异地搬迁或者两者之间的状态)的选择倾向.了解灾区群众的重建意愿及其因素影响是受灾县(市)制订灾后重建规划、并推动实施的重要前提.通过对五大极重灾区1243户城乡受灾居民家庭问卷调查、深度访谈.结果表明:受灾居民所在县(市)、目前安置地、户口类型、受教育程度、适应新环境能力及未来经济预期等因素对其重建意愿有显著影响.研究认为:选择重建方式应在尊重群众意愿的前提下,结合实际充分论证;在此基础上,应结合目前的临时安置地对城乡布局合理规划;应将灾后重建和城乡统筹及生态扶贫相结合来考虑,着力提高受灾居民的就业技能和受教育程度,从而提高适应新环境生产生活的能力;加大在灾区的产业恢复重建力度,特别尽快恢复关系民生的产业以及就业容量大的产业.     

汶川地震后图书馆的恢复重建与职能发挥

汶川地震给灾区的图书馆事业带来重创,全国图书馆界、灾区各类图书馆及其他相关部门立即行动起来,进行抗震救灾、恢复重建工作.图书馆通过及时地宣传、报道、捐款捐物、对民众进行心理干预、编制发放抗震救灾小册子等行动,再加上国家立法的有力支持,进行自救与协助重建,为夺取抗震救灾的最后胜利充分发挥图书馆的职能作用.     

介绍两种震害损失估算方法

本文介绍了两种震害损失估算方法:全概率法和单位面积法。并据此法对宁夏、青海等地震害作了估算。     

震后灾害损失快速评估

本文论述了震后灾害损失快速评估的三种方法,分别适用于城市、整个受灾区及农村。文中还提供了一系列平均统计数据,如建筑物震害率,平均损失率等,为当地无详细资料时参考使用。并以地震烈度和人口密度为参数,给出快速评估人员伤亡的经验公式。最后还讨论了地震间接损失的估算方法。