Estimating willingness to pay for a hypothetical earthquake early warning systems

The development of reliable, accessible, and transparent earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) for disaster reduction have been given increased priority at local, national, and international levels. Accurately quantifying the social and economic benefits accrued to households and businesses from EEWSs are a challenging and difficult task. In this paper, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is used to evaluate the benefits of a hypothetical EEWS to the citizens of Tehran Metropolitan. This study clarifies public willingness to pay (WTP) for EEWS in Tehran, and the dominant factors involved in WTP through a CVM analysis. The survey, completed by more than 504 households, showed that on average households are willing to pay 367,471 Rials (~38 US$) per month for the hypothetical EEWS. Those willing to pay the most for EEWS are households, which currently possess a fire alarm. Also the more educated the respondents and the more children the respondents have, the more willing they are to pay for EEWS. These results could be used by policy makers and technology firms in order to determine the optimal investments in early warning systems for earthquake disaster reduction.     

震害的动态预测

利用多层递阶模型，在选取影响人口损失大小的动态因子的基础上，建立了可应用于未来人口损失估计的动态预测模型，并由此对中国大陆各区域未来10a的人口损失进行了预测。     

中国因地震造成的水库险情及其防治对策

首次系统收集、整理了中国因地震破坏造成水库险情的资料,根据水库险情严重程度,提出按3级分类及处理方案。本文概要介绍了各级水库险情的主要案例及险情发生后的抢险救灾措施。在此基础上总结了水库险情防治对策的基本思路。同时,对水库险情危险度的评价和水库险情等级与地震震级之间的关系作了对防灾减灾有益的探讨。     

The study of Central Taiwan particles concentration variations during earthquake period

Ambient particle concentration was taken on the traffic sampling site over the Chung-Chi Road over the bridge (CCROB) in front of Hungkuang Institute of Technology (HKIT). The sampling time was from August 1999 to December 1999. During the sampling period, Taiwan's biggest earthquake in more than a century registered 7.3 on the Richter scale (Taiwan Chi-Chi Earthquake). Besides, there are more than 20,000 aftershocks following the Taiwan Chi-Chi Earthquake within 3 months. Thus, the mass concentration of particles with aerodynamic diameters smaller than 2.5 microm (PM2.5) and PM2.5-10 was also collected then compared with the total mass concentration of suspended particles (TSP) in this study. The average TSP, PM2.5-10, and PM2.5 concentrations are 106, 24.6, and 58.0 microg/m3, respectively, after the Taiwan Chi-Chi Earthquake. The average TSP concentrations before and after Taiwan Chi-Chi Earthquake were 69.6 and 127 microg/ m3, respectively. In addition, statistical analysis of the PM10 data from this study and EPA in 1999 yielded a Tstatistic of 0.147, which is smaller than t(0.975,18) = 2.101. It is indicated that there was no significant difference. So, the PM10 concentrations measured after Taiwan Chi-Chi Earthquake in this study were also greater than those data previously obtained from Taiwan EPA in the same region of this area. The relationships between TSP, PM10, PM2.5-10, and PM2.5 particle concentrations and wind speed (R2) are .77, .59, .58, .58, respectively. And the ratios of PM2.5/PM25-10, PM2.5/PM10, and PM10/TSP are 221%, 67.2%, 58.0%, respectively. The average ratios of PM2.5/PM2.5-10 and PM2.5/PM10 increase by about 120% and 17%. It indicated that the fine-particles concentration increases compared to the coarse-particles concentration after 921 Taiwan Chi-Chi Earthquake. And the proposed reasons are that local motor vehicle emissions combined the fine particles transported from the Chi-Chi epicenter. More importantly, the wind direction was mainly blown from southeastern part. These two main factors enhance the fine-particles concentration in this area.     

论地震灾害场控制的系统化方法

强烈地震后效时间长,影响范围广。因此,地震灾场的控制,对于遭受地震的城市或地区的震后功能恢复具有重要的意义。本文界定了地震灾害场和地震灾害影响场的概念;讨论了地震灾场的一些基本特征;结合作者研究工作的进展,对地震灾害场控制的基本思路作出了探讨。     

Effect of objective risk on key actor support for seismic mitigation policy

This article investigates the policy formulation process related to seismic hazard mitigation. A preemergent policy climate is identified by focusing on key actors, assessments of seismic risk, and policy alternatives. Two major factors were found to affect key actor support for policy development: (a) the objective risk to which their constituent community is exposed, and (b) their elective or appointive position at the local level of government.     

试论地震预测预报的公关宣传策略

从社会科学的公共关系学和公关心理学理论并结合地震探索的实践上对地震预测预报问题进行了讨论。指出过去对该科学领域的评价与宣传报道有不尽完善之处。文中尝试给出了关于地震能否预测, 如何评价等敏感问题的公关宣传策略。     

试述汶川8．0级地震我国“十五”地热观测网的映震情况

2008年5月12日汶川8．0级地震的地震异常信息是否在我国现有的技术手段中有明显的异常体现,引起了人们的思考。本文用收集到的全国“十五”地热观测网中的190个地热前兆观测点的数据资料,对汶川8．0级地震的映震情况进行分析。结果30个观测点震前有前兆异常,86个观测点有同震响应及震后调整。其中有前兆异常的观测点仅占16％,震中距〈1100km出现前兆异常观测点占全部异常点（30个）的77％,占震中距〈1100km观测点（83个）的28％。由此分析了我国地热观测的现状及预测实践中存在的不足。例如观测孔勘选不理想有待筛选改进,数据资源私有应在全国及时实现资源共享等问题。     

从2008年5月12日四川汶川地震看地震的成因

通过对汶川8.0级地震与地球自转的关系的分析,提出了一个新的地震成因观点,认为地震的根本原因在于地球自转速率的变化.地球岩石圈由大小不同、质量不同的块体组成.比如,大洋块体薄、质量轻,大陆块体厚、质量重.地球自转速率变化时,就会造成这些块体运动的差异性.这种差异运动可能使块体之间发生"追尾"撞击或摩擦,从而引起地震.地震能量来自于块体间撞击或摩擦时损失的动能.     

宝鸡市在汶川地震波及影响中的应急救援与组织管理

陕西省宝鸡市是汶川大地震的波及影响地区,全市在这次地震中普遍受灾,震后在市委、市政府领导和指挥下,快速反应,沉着应对,迅速展开地震应急救援和组织管理工作.本文通过对宝鸡市应急救援和组织管理工作的回顾,提出了在严重地震灾害发生后,应该将救治伤员、安置灾民,防震避险、组织自救,加强宣传、正确引导,核查异常、监测震情,灾害调查、评估定损,灾后重建、恢复家园作为应急救援与组织管理的重点.