A Sensitivity Analysis of an Integrated Modelling Approach to Assess the Risk of Wind-borne Spread of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus from Infected Premises

The sensitivity of an integrated model to assess the potential for wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to variations in key parameters controlling different physical and biological processes was evaluated. The estimated number of farms at risk is sensitive to the virus strain used and the accompanying effective contact rate. The C Noville strain increased the estimated number of exposed farms ranked as high and medium risk of being infected by a factor of 5, compared to the baseline, based on the O UKG 2001 strain. The inclusion of a model for biological ageing of the virus can also have a significant effect on the concentration patterns arising from transport and dispersion of the virus. Its inclusion has the practical advantage of markedly reducing the time required for the calculations. The estimated number of farms affected by exposure to high and medium virus concentrations is not grossly sensitive to attenuation caused by temperature or relative humidity effects. Changes in susceptibility to infection, as determined by the parameter θ in the exposure-risk model, does not change the configuration of the virus plumes, but it does change the distribution of farms at risk by risk category. These findings suggest that a good understanding of characteristics (excretion rates from infected animals, susceptibility of different species to infection, virus survival, etc.) of the virus strain involved in an FMD outbreak is necessary to provide a reliable assessment of the risk of wind-borne spread. In the event of an incursion of FMD, provision for laboratory studies on the virus will be an essential component of the disease response and should be factored into contingency plans.

A case study of an isolated wind powered electricity system meeting 100% of local demand

Using meteorological and electricity demand data for a 4-year period, electricity demand in Shetland was modeled to provide an estimate of the demand over a 30-year period from 1 January 1981. That modeled demand was then compared to estimated wind power output over the same period using the WAsP model. The wind farm output was estimated for a range of sizes of wind farm up to the consented 370 MW Viking Wind Farm in Shetland. Some wind power was available for 94% of the time and the 370 MW wind farm would meet 100% of demand for nearly 80% of the time. The statistics of single and accumulated deficits were calculated for a range of wind farms and estimates of the amount of additional generation capacity and additional power requirements were assessed. The study suggests that with storage, wind power in Shetland could meet all electricity demand in Shetland at around £130 to £150/MWh (excluding subsidy) and with a grid connection allowing the sale of excess power, those costs could be reduced.     

Responses of alkaline phosphatase activity to wind-driven waves in a large, shallow lake: Implications for phosphorus availability and algal blooms

Phosphorus is a vital nutrient for algal growth, thus, a better understanding of phosphorus availability is essential to mitigate harmful algal blooms in lakes. Wind waves are a ubiquitous characteristic of lake ecosystems. However, its effects on the cycling of organic phosphorus and its usage by phytoplankton remain poorly elucidated in shallow eutrophic lakes. A mesocosm experiment was carried out to investigate the responses of alkaline phosphatase activity fractions to wind waves in large, shallow, eutrophic Lake Taihu. Results showed that wind-driven waves induced the release of alkaline phosphatase and phosphorus from the sediment, and dramatically enhanced phytoplanktonic alkaline phosphatase activity. However, compared to the calm conditions, bacterial and dissolved alkaline phosphatase activity decreased in wind-wave conditions. Consistently, the gene copies of Microcystis phoX increased but bacterial phoX decreased under wind-wave conditions. The ecological effects of these waves on phosphorus and phytoplankton likely accelerated the biogeochemical cycling of phosphorus and promoted phytoplankton production in Lake Taihu. This study provides an improved current understanding of phosphorus availability and the phosphorus strategies of plankton in shallow, eutrophic lakes.     

Short-term changes in mobile dunes at Port Alfred,South Africa

Development along the western beachfront of Port Alfred, which is situated along a sandy shoreline, increased markedly in the 1960s as the coastal town became a popular holiday resort. This development included the removal of coastal vegetation, which resulted in the destabilization of dunes and migration of sand westerly onto the road, West Beach parking lot, and lawns of the cabanas. Sand traps were constructed to collect sand blowing across the dunes over set periods, and the net sand movement along the mobile dune belt was calculated using Hunter's equation. The dunes show an easterly movement of sand at a rate of 3.5 m/yr, which is comparable with figures recorded along other areas of this coastline. Considering the wind regime and amount of sand movement along this coast, it is inappropriate to clear vegetation and develop within the dune region.     

燃烧风洞的研制及其燃烧特性研究

本文介绍了为可燃物燃烧特性研究而建立起来的模拟自然环境条件的燃烧风洞设备以及在燃烧设备中进行的模拟火场的火蔓延特性研究。在燃烧风洞中进行的可燃物燃烧实验为林火机理的研究、火蔓延模型的建立提供了实验依据．     

南山铁矿风场及扩散规律风洞模拟研究

以风洞模拟方式研究中性层结条件下南山铁矿凹山采场地域边界层风场特征,并以示踪气体扩散摸拟方法给出该地域大气扩散参数的实验结果。     

COMPUTER BASED METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF NONSTRUCTURAL FLOOD MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: The suggested methodology matches flooding risks to development classes. The matching process is accomplished on a mapping grid basis. Flooding risks include stage and velocity measures. Development classes are based on size and building material parameters for residential, commercial, industrial, and public structures. A computer program counts structures requiring predetermined nonstructural measures given the flooding variables, development classes, and desired effectiveness levels in question. A case study is presented to demonstrate data collection techniques, output, and the use of output in developing nonstructural mixes.     

山地林火特征与扑救的若干问题

根据火灾科学、流体力学、气象学和地理科学中的一些基本理论以及实际火场经验,分析了山地条件下：（１）坡度对火行为的直接影响;（２）简单地形中局地风特征和火行为特征;（３）典型山地地形—流系地形中的局地风和林火行为特征,提出了扑救山地林火应注意的若干问题     

有风条件下航空煤油池火燃烧特性的实验研究

在全尺寸热释放速率实验台的基础上,搭建有风条件池火实验平台,开展了不同风速条件下的航空煤油池火燃烧实验,实验所用正方形油盘的边长分别为0.2m、0.3m和0.4m,风速范围为0 m.s-1至4.99 m.s-1。实验结果表明,风速为0 m.s-1时航空煤油池火的燃烧速率随油盘尺寸增大而单调递增,实验值与理论值的差距随风速增大而减小。实验所得.m″windy/.ms″till与v/D呈线性关系,与前人结论一致,但实验所得参数与前人值不同。同尺寸油盘池火的热释放速率峰值来临时间随风速增大有减小的趋势;不同尺寸油池火的燃烧速率随风速增加而单调递增。对不同尺寸油池火的热释放速率峰值随风速的变化规律作了讨论。     

多驱动力作用下高层建筑火灾烟气输运规律研究现状

高层建筑发生火灾后,火灾烟气会在多种驱动力的作用下从着火房间迅速蔓延扩散至整栋建筑,严重威胁建筑内人员的生命安全。因此,控制建筑内烟气蔓延是建筑消防安全的一项重要内容。该文对热浮力、烟囱效应和室外风作用下建筑内火灾烟气输运规律进行分析,较系统地总结了这三种驱动力作用下火灾烟气输运的国内外研究成果,指出了以往研究的一些不足之处。根据国内外相关工作的研究进展及当前需要,对今后高层建筑火灾烟气输运规律的主要研究内容提出了几点展望。