基于UNMIX模型的矿区周边农田土壤重金属源解析

采集了云南省会泽县铅锌矿区周边42个农田土壤样品,测定了14种元素的含量,应用UNMIX模型进行了土壤重金属源解析的研究,并利用Arc GIS地统计分析模块中的反距离加权插值法分析了污染严重的6种重金属的空间分布,进一步验证源解析结果.结果表明:(1)研究区土壤中Pb、Zn、Cd污染较为严重,均超过当地土壤背景值的数十倍.(2)UNMIX模型解析出的3个土壤重金属污染来源分别为工业活动造成的人为污染源(源1),源贡献率为16.32%;燃煤和施肥导致的污染源(源2),源贡献率为68.26%;矿山开采导致的人为污染源及土壤母质造成的自然污染源的综合污染源(源3),源贡献率为15.42%.(3)研究区的农田土壤重金属污染的空间分布格局与当地的土地利用类型和UNMIX模型解析的结果基本吻合,表明UNMIX模型可以很好地应用于矿区周边农田土壤重金属源解析研究.     

外源Ca2+和K+作用下河口区碱蓬水质净化效果和耐盐碱提高机制

入海河流中较高的氮、磷污染负荷严重影响近岸海域水质,必须加强陆海统筹.但河口区受海水倒灌影响,水体盐碱浓度高且变化范围大,植物生长困难,去除氮磷能力低,提高植物生存能力是亟需解决的难题.本文通过添加适当浓度的Ca~(2+)和K~+,研究提高植物耐盐碱能力以及降低富营养化风险的可能性.结果表明,在pH 8、盐度20‰条件下,外源Ca~(2+)和K~+浓度分别为8 mmol·L~(-1)和10 mmol·L~(-1)的水培实验中,碱蓬对总氮及总磷的去除效率均最高,为对照组的1. 53～1. 87倍,生长最好,相对生长速率(RGR)为对照组的2. 4倍和2. 0倍,同浓度Ca~(2+)的缓解作用大于K~+.外源Ca~(2+)和K~+提高耐盐碱能力的机制体现在碱蓬渗透调节功能的提升:无机渗透调节机制为平衡Na~+/K~+,提高碱蓬持水能力,叶片与根系中无机离子含量与含水量相关性均在0. 966以上;有机渗透调节机制为促进甜菜碱等小分子有机物积累,降低细胞膜脂过氧化作用,Ca~(2+)和K~+缓解作用下叶片丙二醛含量最大降幅达72. 9%和61. 7%.外源Ca~(2+)和K~+能够增强碱蓬渗透调节能力,提升耐盐碱能力,促进碱蓬生长,提高碱蓬对氮磷的去除率.     

沿海城市降水中总汞及汞同位素特征研究

大气汞沉降是汞从排放源进入地表系统最主要的迁移途径,利用汞同位素追踪汞在大气中的迁移转化规律及潜在来源对研究汞的生物地球化学循环具有重要意义.本研究于2012—2013年对厦门市小坪、坂头、鼓浪屿和洪文站点降水中总汞(THg)浓度和汞同位素的变化特征进行了研究.结果表明,厦门降水中THg浓度为1.0～59.4 ng·L~(-1),大气THg湿沉降量为13.1μg·m~(-2)·a~(-1).厦门冷、暖季降水中THg浓度相当,但由于暖季丰沛的降水量,导致暖季THg的湿沉降量约为冷季的2.5倍.降水样品中均表现出负的偶数汞同位素质量分馏(δ~(202)Hg,-2.2‰～-1.5‰)、正的奇数汞同位素非质量分馏(Δ~(199)Hg,0.08‰～0.22‰),以及轻微偏正的偶数汞同位素非质量分馏(Δ~(200)Hg,0.01‰～0.07‰).厦门降水中奇数汞同位素非质量分馏是大气汞液相光致还原反应的结果.偶数汞同位素非质量分馏不明显与其处于较低的纬度有关.厦门降水中δ~(202)Hg接近于厦门当地及贵州燃煤烟气中的δ~(202)Hg值,表明厦门降水中汞可能受到本地或传输过来的燃煤排放的影响.     

不同类型DOM对三峡库区消落带土壤汞甲基化的影响

三峡水库特殊的调度方式导致了消落带的形成,在落干期,消落带上会生长大量以狗牙根为主的植物.在淹没期,狗牙根会发生腐解并释放出溶解性有机质(Dissolved Organic Matter,DOM),消落带作为汞的敏感区,狗牙根释放的DOM对汞甲基化的影响值得关注.为此,本文以狗牙根提取液中的DOM(记为DOM_g)为研究对象,同时选取猪粪中的DOM(记为DOM_z)作为比较,利用室内模拟实验,研究这两种不同类型的DOM对土壤汞甲基化影响的差异,并分析两种DOM的光谱特征,探讨其作用机制.结果表明,两种DOM的光谱特征存在明显的差异,DOM_z的有色可溶解性有机物(Chromophpric Dissolved Organic Matter,CDOM)浓度、芳香性及疏水性组分都高于DOM_g.同时,两种DOM均以类蛋白组分为主,但DOM_z的生物可利用性高于DOM_g.并且这两种DOM均能促进土壤的汞甲基化,且在培养后期促进效果更加显著.但两种DOM的促进效果存在差异,DOM_z的促进效果优于DOM_g.     

国家保护地体系建设：西方标准反思与中国路径探讨

借鉴西方标准曾对我国保护地制度的建立起到了重要作用。然而,当前国际标准对我国已建立起来的保护地体系已经显现出不适用,因此有必要对其进行反思。回溯我国及世界保护地制度的建立过程及其关联,由于我国在国际保护地标准制定过程中参与度过低,导致我国保护地的特性与发展阶段需求在国际标准中体现不足。我国保护地具有的文化景观属性,即传统的“天人合一”的环境观与西方人和自然对立的思想截然不同。我国保护地面临着保护与发展双重挑战,直接将基于特定人口状况和发展阶段的保护地所制定的标准用于其他状况下的保护地,其合理性存在着问题。应更加批判地看待西方标准,积极探讨可持续和平发展的中国路径。     

中国近海海洋环境多氯联苯(PCBs)污染现状及影响因素

对中国近海海洋环境(水体、表层沉积物和生物体)中多氯联苯(PCBs)的空间分布、污染程度、来源及影响因素进行了总结,得出如下结果:①我国近海海域水体中,PCBs的含量水平呈现由北向南逐渐增加的趋势,以东部沿海工农业发达地区为最高,我国大部分近海海域水体中PCBs都超过美国EPA制定的30 ng·L-1的标准,污染比较严重;②我国近海海域表层沉积物中PCBs只有小部分超过ISQG(interim sediment quality guideline)和ERL(effects range-low)值,引起生物负效应的几率比较小,污染程度较轻;③生物体内富集的PCBs以4、5和6等高氯代联苯为主,其含量都低于《食品中污染物限量标准》2 000ng·g-1,不会对人类健康造成影响.④我国近海海洋环境中PCBs主要来源于周围大型工厂排放的废水以及电子垃圾拆解造成的PCBs泄漏,影响PCBs含量水平的主要因素有距离陆地的远近程度、水流交换情况、水量大小、季节的变化、沉积物颗粒大小、有机碳含量等等.     

A method for simplifying the analysis of traffic accidents injury severity on two-lane highways using Bayesian networks

Introduction

This study describes a method for reducing the number of variables frequently considered in modeling the severity of traffic accidents. The method's efficiency is assessed by constructing Bayesian networks (BN).

Method

It is based on a two stage selection process. Several variable selection algorithms, commonly used in data mining, are applied in order to select subsets of variables. BNs are built using the selected subsets and their performance is compared with the original BN (with all the variables) using five indicators. The BNs that improve the indicators’ values are further analyzed for identifying the most significant variables (accident type, age, atmospheric factors, gender, lighting, number of injured, and occupant involved). A new BN is built using these variables, where the results of the indicators indicate, in most of the cases, a statistically significant improvement with respect to the original BN.

Conclusions

It is possible to reduce the number of variables used to model traffic accidents injury severity through BNs without reducing the performance of the model.

Impact on Industry

The study provides the safety analysts a methodology that could be used to minimize the number of variables used in order to determine efficiently the injury severity of traffic accidents without reducing the performance of the model.     

国外矿山开采沉陷预计技术研究及应用概述

地表移动和变形的预计是根据已知的地质和开采条件,在矿山开采之前对地表可能产生的移动和变形进行估算,准确的预计对尽量减少开采过程中由采动造成的地表损害具有重要意义。简要介绍了一些国外关于地表沉陷预计的方法及其优缺点,并通过两个实例进行了比较。通过对不同方法的思路及使用的数学模型进行初步的探讨与分析,得出各方法在开采沉陷预计中的优缺点,并对矿山沉陷预计方法的发展提出了建议。     

Increasing development in the surroundings of U.S. National Park Service holdings jeopardizes park effectiveness

Protected areas are cornerstones of biodiversity conservation, but they are in danger of becoming islands in a sea of human dominated landscapes. Our question was if protected areas may even foster development in their surroundings because they provide amenities that attract development, thus causing the isolation of the ecosystems they were designed to protect. Our study analyzed historic aerial photographs and topographical maps to reconstruct road development and building growth within and around Indiana Dunes and Pictured Rocks National Lakeshores in the U.S. Great Lakes region from 1938 to 2005, and to estimate the effects of park creation in 1966 on changes in landscape patterns. Historic U.S. census housing density data were used as a baseline to compare observed changes to. Our results showed that park establishment was effective in reducing and stopping the fragmenting impact of development within park boundaries. However, increased amenity levels following park establishment led to enhanced development in the surroundings of both parks. In the extreme case of Indiana Dunes, building density outside the park increased from 45 to 200 buildings/km² and road density almost doubled from 3.6 to 6.6 km/km² from 1938 to 2005. Development rates of change were much higher than in the broader landscape, particularly after park establishment. The potential amenity effect was up to 9500 new buildings in the 3.2-km zone around Indiana Dunes between 1966 and 2005. For Pictured Rocks the absolute effect was smaller but up to 70% of the observed building growth was potentially due to amenity effects. Our findings highlight the need for conservation planning at broader scales, incorporating areas beyond the boundaries of protected areas.     

煤矿企业安全管理的代理成本影响因素及激励措施研究

为减少煤矿企业的代理成本,激励代理人的努力程度,从信息对称和信息不对称2个层面建立煤矿集团委托人和代理人之间的委托代理模型。并通过对2个模型的比较分析发现,代理成本的影响因素主要是由煤矿代理人的风险厌恶程度、事故发生的高度不确定性和努力的边际成本难以提高等3个因素决定的。从代理成本的3个影响因素角度出发,给出促进煤矿代理人努力开展安全管理的激励措施。