线性规划方法在城市大气污染物排放总量控制中的应用

为了实施城市大气污染物排放总量控制，实现逐点浓度达标与各功能区达标，本文讨论了线性规划方法在大气污染物排放总量控制中的具体应用，提出了合理选择控制点和计算污染物浓度贡献系数矩阵的方法，结合控制点源排放的Ａ－Ｐ值法建立了大气污染物排放总量控制模型。     

碳税对于发展非化石能源的作用 ——基于能源-环境-经济模型的分析

为评价实现我国2020年碳排放强度和非化石能源发展目标的经济和环境影响,论文应用基于动态CGE模型的中国能源-环境-经济模型,模拟了不同减排政策下的减排效果及经济影响。模拟结果显示,征收40元/t CO₂碳税,将碳税作为政府收入、 居民收入、 削减影响较大行业的生产税、 以及用于非化石能源投资,2020年所能实现的减排量分别相当于CO₂排放强度在2005年的基础上下降35.87%、 35.80%、 35.07%和40.13%,非化石能源的消费量将占到总消费量的10.99%、 11.00%、 10.75%和15.82%。政策情景下对经济的影响并不是十分显著,GDP的损失不超过0.2%。综合考虑到减排效益和经济影响,将碳税收入用作对非化石能源的投资,不仅有利于促进我国实现2020年碳排放强度目标,而且对于实现非化石能源发展目标也发挥着重要的作用。     

基于指数趋势模型在城市垃圾产量预测中的应用

采用了一种较新的预测算法———指数趋势模型算法对城市垃圾产量进行了预测,从结果看较为合理,对填埋场容量规划起到一定的参考作用,同时丰富了预测计算方法的研究思路。     

大气多环芳烃区域迁移转化模型比较与关键影响因素:以京津冀地区为例

针对芘(Pyr)和苯并[a]芘(BaP),以京津冀地区2014年为例分别构建CMAQ和BETR模型系统开展数值模拟,对比评估两种模型对PAHs大气迁移转化的模拟效果,并利用XGBoost模型识别CMAQ中影响PAHs环境行为的关键大气物理化学过程和参数.结果表明,BETR和CMAQ模拟年均值与实测年均值比值基本在1/2～2之间,且CMAQ模拟值和实测值季节变化趋势相同,验证了两类模型结果的可靠性.同时,将CMAQ模型9 km网格模拟浓度平均至27 km网格并和BETR模拟浓度的对比结果显示,BETR模型Pyr和BaP模拟浓度平均分别约为CMAQ年均模拟浓度的1.59倍和1.38倍,两类模型在年均浓度水平和空间分布方面具有较好的可比性.基于XGBoost模型的SHAP变量重要性分析表明,边界层高是对Pyr和BaP迁移转化影响最大的气象因素,其重要性在所有因素中占比高达22%～35%,在部分城市和污染物中对浓度变化的贡献甚至超过排放量,且和两种PAHs浓度呈显著负相关;PAHs浓度水平其次受风速影响最大,且风速和PAHs浓度呈负相关关系;风向对不同城市污染物浓度的影响则各不相同.     

Release Characteristics of Nutrients from Polymer-coated Compound Controlled Release Fertilizers

Reliable information regarding release characteristics of nutrients from a polymer-coated controlled release fertilizer (CRF) is essential for beneficial agronomic and environmental results. Significant knowledge regarding nitrogen release from polymer-coated urea was gained while the information regarding the release of the different nutrients contained in polymer-coated compound N–P–K CRF remains limited. An experiment in which major factors affecting the differential release of nutrients from two coated compound CRF was performed in free water, water saturated sand and sand at field capacity. In general, nitrate release was the fastest, followed by ammonium and potassium whereas phosphate was significantly slower, with a rate of linear release in free water 45–70% slower than that of nitrate. Little differences were obtained for the lag periods of nitrate, ammonium and potassium release (2–10 days) under the experimental conditions, whereas for P they were one order of magnitude larger. The main factor slowing the release was assumed to be the lower solubility of ions with P being the least soluble. Release into free water was, expectedly, somewhat faster than that into saturated sand and significantly faster as compared to sand at field capacity and particularly so for P. Raising the temperature from 20 °C to 40 °C increased the rate of linear release of the different nutrients. The energy of activation, EA_rel, estimated for the linear release, of the different nutrients, was narrow ranging between 37 to 46 (KJ mol⁻¹) whereas the mean values obtained for the two CRF, differing by 50% in coating thickness, was non-significant. However, EA_rel was significantly different in different media. The complex effect of temperature on the lag period and nutrient interactions during release deserve further investigation.     

Effects of selected metal oxides on the dechlorination and destruction of PCDD and PCDF

OCDD and OCDF spiked silica/graphite based model fly ash containing various copper compounds and metal oxides were thermally treated under oxygen deficient conditions. All copper compounds tested showed a considerable dechlorination/hydrogenation reaction at 260 °C. After 30 min at 340 °C, less than 1% of the spiked OCDD and OCDF was recovered as T₄CDD/F to OCDD/F. Other compounds tested demonstrated a lower rate of dechlorination compared to the copper compounds. However, all other metal oxides showed a small dechlorination effect at 260 °C, which was considerably increased at 340 °C.

The model fly ash containing the different copper compounds or metal oxides showed comparable PCDD and PCDF isomer patterns after thermal treatment. However, small differences were observed among the different tested compounds. The PCDD and PCDF isomer patterns on the model fly ashes were similar to patterns found during dechlorination experiments on fly ashes from waste incineration processes.

Model fly ash containing Ca(OH)₂ exhibited the highest destruction potential, but a low dechlorination potential. In contrast, model fly ash containing any of the remaining compounds tested, was found to predominantly dechlorinate the spiked OCDD and OCDF.     

污染源自动监测异常数据识别规则及处理方法探索

基于大量污染源自动监测数据的特征分析与异常原因解析,探索建立针对自动监测异常数据的识别规则与标志处理方法,并通过模型训练实现了异常数据的自动标志.经实例验证,该方法可识别异常偏高、异常偏低、异常为0、迟滞不变、逻辑错误等5种类型的异常数据,按照数据有效性及异常原因进行标志处理,可以为后续数据分析及各类模型训练提供数据基...     

张家口市洋河、桑干河流域水环境健康风险评价

张家口市洋河、桑干河流域近几年来水质持续改善,为逐步恢复流域水质和下游官厅水库饮用水备用水源功能提供了条件.文章利用水环境健康风险评价模型,选取了2006年该流域水质监测数据,对流域内10个监测断面由饮水途径引起的水环境健康风险进行了评价.结果表明,该流域水体对人体健康危害最大的是化学致癌物Cr(VI),在各个监测断面中Cr(VI)的个人年风险均超过ICRP推荐的标准.同时,化学致癌物对人体健康危害的个人年风险超过非致癌物的个人年风险;因此对该流域水体的含化学致癌物Cr(VI)和As废水进行控制和治理是降低水环境健康风险的有效途径.     

煤矿安全目标管理成果评价的模型与方法

在简要介绍煤矿安全目标管理方法和目标体系的基础上,提出了确定安全目标管理综合目标值的ＧＭ（１,Ｎ）－ ＳＭＣＯ模型,用于对目标成果进行评价,并给出了某煤矿安全目标管理成果评价的应用实例     

任意变截面棒材无模拉伸数学模型的研究

无模拉伸是近年来新开发的一种金属成形工艺。此文在对无模拉伸的发展动态、国内外研究概况等进行综合分析的基础上,分析了任意变截面棒材无模拉伸的变形机制及成形可行性,提出了任意变截面棒材无模拉伸速度或冷热源移动速度的理论计算方法。并提出了几种抛物面棒材无模拉伸的速度模型。经过实验研究证明,此文提出的速度模型较好地表达了任意变截面棒材无模拉伸速度变化规律。