苏州新区经济与环境协调发展实证分析

重视环境保护规划 ,严把项目引进关 ,控制乡镇工业污染 ,增大环境保护投入 ,完善基础设施 ,严格环境管理是实现苏州新区经济与环境协调发展的主导因素。     

浦东新区城市生活污水处理现状及对策探讨

在对浦东新区生活污水处理现状进行分析的基础上，肯定了目前污水纳管处理和地理式生化处理并存的过滤性措施的作用，并提出了要提高生活污水处理率，完善污水管网收集系统，加强对住宅小区生活污水处理设施的管理等建议。     

浦东新区大气气溶胶中碳颗粒的分布规律

采用元素相关性分析方法，找出浦东新区大气气溶胶中碳颗粒的污染源，确证该区大气中碳颗粒主要来自煤的燃烧。同时初步找出浦东新区大气中碳颗粒污染的时空分布和粒径分布规律，为改善浦东 新区大气污染状况提供依据。     

新时期消防工作发展思路

随着我国社会主义市场经济的发展和社会管理体制的变化 ,消防工作也面临着新形势。笔者认为 ,消防工作社会化是适应形势发展的必然要求 ,要在全社会建立起各级人民政府领导下的单位责任自负、隐患自除、风险自担 ,公安消防机构依法实施监督的消防社会化运行机制。新时期消防工作应通过以下方式实现社会化 :进一步完善消防法规体系 ;强化消防安全的基础性地位 ;加强宣传普及基本的消防知识 ;发展消防安全中介组织 ;建立消防安全评价制度和科学评价体系 ;依法实施消防监督     

区域REE系统的构建及其综合评价

从区域可持续发展的角度出发,提出了区域资源环境经济(REE)系统的概念,初步对区域REE系统的研究对象、系统结构进行了探讨,建立了区域REE系统可持续运行的评价指标体系,并通过实例研究论证了它对区域可持续发展的基础性和指导作用,以及评价指标体系的可用性.     

SUMMER LOW FLOWS IN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE 20TH CENTURY1

ABSTRACT: High springtime river flows came earlier by one to two weeks in large parts of northern New England during the 20th Century. In this study it was hypothesized that late spring/early summer recessional flows and late summer/early fall low flows could also be occurring earlier. This could result in a longer period of low flow recession and a decrease in the magnitude of low flows. To test this hypothesis, variations over time in the magnitude and timing of low flows were analyzed. To help understand the relation between low flows and climatic variables in New England, low flows were correlated with air temperatures and precipitation. Analysis of data from 23 rural, unregulated rivers across New England indicated little evidence of consistent changes in the timing or magnitude of late summer/early fall low flows during the 20th Century. The interannual variability in the timing and magnitude of the low flows in northern New England was explained much more by the interannual variability in precipitation than by the interannual variability of air temperatures. The highest correlation between the magnitude of the low flows and air temperatures was with May through November temperatures (r =?0.37, p= 0.0017), while the highest correlation with precipitation was with July through August precipitation (r = 0.67, p > 0.0001).     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Combined Municipal Solid Waste and biomass system optimization for district energy applications

Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) disposal has been a controversial issue in many countries over the past years, due to disagreement among the various stakeholders on the waste management policies and technologies to be adopted. One of the ways of treating/disposing MSW is energy recovery, as waste is considered to contain a considerable amount of bio-waste and therefore can lead to renewable energy production. The overall efficiency can be very high in the cases of co-generation or tri-generation. In this paper a model is presented, aiming to support decision makers in issues relating to Municipal Solid Waste energy recovery. The idea of using more fuel sources, including MSW and agricultural residue biomass that may exist in a rural area, is explored. The model aims at optimizing the system specifications, such as the capacity of the base-load Waste-to-Energy facility, the capacity of the peak-load biomass boiler and the location of the facility. Furthermore, it defines the quantity of each potential fuel source that should be used annually, in order to maximize the financial yield of the investment. The results of an energy tri-generation case study application at a rural area of Greece, using mixed MSW and biomass, indicate positive financial yield of investment. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the effect of the most important parameters of the model on the optimum solution, pinpointing the parameters of interest rate, investment cost and heating oil price, as those requiring the attention of the decision makers. Finally, the sensitivity analysis is enhanced by a stochastic analysis to determine the effect of the volatility of parameters on the robustness of the model and the solution obtained.     

平原河网地区非点源污染风险差异化分区防控研究

土地利用优化和空间防控策略对非点源污染风险控制及水环境质量的改善具有重要意义。本文以太湖流域典型平原河网地区-上海市青浦区为研究对象,将灰色线性规划模型与最小累积阻力模型相结合,以控制非点源污染风险和增加经济效益、生态效益为目标,进行土地利用结构优化与空间分区防控研究,在空间上划设了水资源保育区、水资源重点防护区、非点源污染一般阻控区、非点源污染中等阻控区及非点源污染重点阻控区,并针对不同分区提出具有针对性的防控措施。与2012年相比,预测2020年优化防控方案下,可减少总氮、总磷的输出10.96%和41.33%。由此表明,优化土地利用结构和构建空间差异化防控机制是有效调控非点源污染风险,实现区域可持续土地利用,促进经济发展和保证生态环境安全的有效途径。     

A Lost Link between a Flightless Parrot and a Parasitic Plant and the Potential Role of Coprolites in Conservation Paleobiology

Late Quaternary extinctions and population fragmentations have severely disrupted animal‐plant interactions globally. Detection of disrupted interactions often relies on anachronistic plant characteristics, such as spines in the absence of large herbivores or large fruit without dispersers. However, obvious anachronisms are relatively uncommon, and it can be difficult to prove a direct link between the anachronism and a particular faunal taxon. Analysis of coprolites (fossil feces) provides a novel way of exposing lost interactions between animals (depositors) and consumed organisms. We analyzed ancient DNA to show that a coprolite from the South Island of New Zealand was deposited by the rare and threatened kakapo (Strigops habroptilus), a large, nocturnal, flightless parrot. When we analyzed the pollen and spore content of the coprolite, we found pollen from the cryptic root‐parasite Dactylanthus taylorii. The relatively high abundance (8.9% of total pollen and spores) of this zoophilous pollen type in the coprolite supports the hypothesis of a former direct feeding interaction between kakapo and D. taylorii. The ranges of both species have contracted substantially since human settlement, and their present distributions no longer overlap. Currently, the lesser short‐tailed bat (Mystacina tuberculata) is the only known native pollinator of D. taylorii, but our finding raises the possibility that birds, and other small fauna, could have once fed on and pollinated the plant. If confirmed, through experimental work and observations, this finding may inform conservation of the plant. For example, it may be possible to translocate D. taylorii to predator‐free offshore islands that lack bats but have thriving populations of endemic nectar‐feeding birds. The study of coprolites of rare or extinct taxonomic groups provides a unique way forward to expand existing knowledge of lost plant and animal interactions and to identify pollination and dispersal syndromes. This approach of linking paleobiology with neoecology offers significant untapped potential to help inform conservation and restoration plans. Un Eslabón Perdido entre un Loro No Volador y una Planta Parásita y el Papel Potencial de Coprolitos en Paleobiología de la Conservación