乡镇居民点规模—功能系统耦合协调发展研究——以重庆市潼南区为例

借鉴耦合理论,建立了乡镇居民点规模-功能耦合系统,以潼南区为案例,采用熵权法、耦合协调度评价和空间集聚分析等方法,对2014年潼南区22个乡镇居民点规模-功能的耦合协调发展状态进行评价。研究发现,经济规模是乡镇居民点规模的主要决定因素。第三产业是影响居民点生产功能的主要因素,教育医疗则是影响生活功能的主要因素,建成区绿化面积是影响居民点生态功能的主要因素。潼南区乡镇居民点规模-功能耦合协调发展水平在空间上具有明显的单核结构特征,区域发展具有较大的不平衡性。大部分乡镇规模-功能耦合处于拮抗状态,规模滞后状态,规模、功能建设发展都处于低水平状态。应当积极培育县城以外的区域次级增长中心,以缩小区域发展的不平衡性。在村镇居民点的规划中,应重视居民点经济规模的地位与作用,以求更为合理的预测居民点规模,并规划建设居民点功能。     

APPLICATION OF KRIGING TO ESTIMATING MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN A REGION OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE1

ABSTRACT: Estimates of mean annual precipitation (MAP) over areas are the starting point for all computations of water and chemical balances for drainage basins and surface water bodies. Any errors in the estimates of MAP are propagated through the balance computations. These errors can be due to: (1) failures of individual gages to collect the amount of precpitation that actually falls; (2) operator errors; and (3) failure of the raingage network to adequately sample the region of interest. This paper attempts to evaluate the last of these types of error by applying kriging in two different approaches to estimating MAP in New Hampshire and Vermont, USA. The data base is the 1951–1980 normal precipitation at 120 raingages in the two states and in adjacent portions of bordering states and provinces. In the first approach, kriging is applied directly to the MAP values, while in the second, kriging is applied to a “precipitation delivery factor” that represents the MAP with the orographic effect removed. The first approach gives slightly better kriged estimates of MAP at seven validation stations that were not included in the original analysis, but results in an error surface that is highly contorted and in larger maximum errors over most of the region. The second approach had a considerably smoother error surface and, thus, is generally preferable as a basis for point and areal estimates of MAP. MAP estimates in the region have 95 percent confidence intervals of about 20 cm/yr at low and moderate elevations, and up to 35 cm/yr at high elevations. These uncertainties amount to about 20 percent of estimated MAP values.     

New particle formation observed from a rain shadow region of the Western Ghats,India

Abstract

This study reports on new particle formation (NPF) and characteristic features observed from a rural site falling in the rainshadow of the Western Ghats in peninsular India. A total of 35 NPF events observed during August 2018 - January 2019 are classified and analyzed here. The apparent formation rates ranged from 0.2 to 10.0?cm^–3 s^–1, while the growth rates of nucleation mode particles ranged from 1.2 to 13.8?nm h^–1. The frequency of occurrence was least during August (core monsoon) and highest during post-monsoon. The local winds were calm and southeasterly to easterly (from the urban centre) supplying the essential precursor gases during October and November, leading to a frequent occurrence of nucleation events. Observations suggest that an increased condensation sink could limit the NPF while promoting Aitken mode growth. The newly formed particles accounted for about 10–80% of the total aerosol concentration. These newly formed particles were able to act as cloud condensation nuclei after growing to approximately 50?nm with an average activation fraction of 0.4.     

New recruit safety expectations: Relationships with trust and perceived job risk

Very little research has examined the safety expectations of new recruits, particularly those of individuals about to enter full-time work for the first time. There is evidence that new recruits have proportionally more accidents in the first period of their employment. One possible explanation for this is that the safety expectations of new recruits do not match the reality of the workplace they are about to enter. In Study 1 data on workplace safety expectations were collected from 142 final year high school students from six schools. Study 2 collected data from 40 organizations on the safety expectations of a new recruit and compared it with safety expectation data from a manager of the job they were entering. Both studies found that new recruit safety expectations were significantly correlated with ratings of safety specific trust in co-workers and management. Study 2 found that new recruits safety expectation scores were significantly higher than those given by managers. The results suggest that organizations need to develop a clear safety-specific psychological contract with new recruits.     

Learning abatement costs: On the dynamics of the optimal regulation of experience goods

We study the introduction of new technologies when their costs are subject to idiosyncratic uncertainty and can only be fully learned through individual experience. We set up a dynamic model of clean experience goods that replace old polluting consumption options and show how optimal regulation evolves over time. In our base setting where social and private learning incentives coincide, the optimal tax on the polluting consumption is increasing over time. We show, however, that if social and private learning incentives diverge because the private discount rate exceeds the social discount rate, it may be optimal to temporarily increase the tax rate beyond net marginal external damages to induce more learning before reducing the tax rate to the steady state level. Alternatively, one could complement the tax with subsidies for first-time users which can be phased out over time. Similar results apply if consumers have biased expectations. We therefore give a rationale for introductory subsidies on new, clean technologies and non-monotonic tax paths from a perspective of consumer learning.     

Human geography of New Orleans’ high-lead geochemical setting

Previous soil lead studies in New Orleans focused on the geochemical footprint and its health impacts. This study examines the human geography of race, income, and age in pre-Katrina metropolitan New Orleans within the context of lead accumulation in soils. Sample points of soil lead data (n = 5,467) collected in 1998–2000 were mapped in a geographic information system (GIS), binned into 9 ranges, and queried by (1) 2000 Census racial demographic data, (2) 1999 median household income, and (3) 2000 age data. The absolute population generally declines as lead levels increase except at lead levels from 200–400 to 400–1,000 mg/kg when population increases; the African–American population comprises a disproportionate share of this cohort. The high-lead areas occur in the inner city, home to the largest populations of African-Americans in New Orleans. The mean household income curve indicates that lower economic groups are at risk to higher levels of lead. A total of 44,701 children under the age of 5 years, plus 123,579 children aged 5–17, lived in census block groups containing at least one sample point with over 100 mg/kg lead, and these include 23,124 and 64,064 young people, respectively, who live near at least one point over 400 mg/kg. Lead exposure affects a panoply of outcomes that influence the health and welfare of the community. Unless corrected, children are likely to return to the same or, because of lack of lead-safe practices during renovation, even higher exposure risks than before the flooding of New Orleans.     

Efficiency and Concordance of Alternative Methods for Minimizing Opportunity Costs in Conservation Planning

Abstract:  Scarce resources and competing land-use goals necessitate efficient biodiversity conservation. Combining multicriteria analysis with conservation decision-support tools improves efficiency of conservation planning by maximizing outcomes for biodiversity while minimizing opportunity costs to society. An opportunity cost is the benefit that could have been received by taking an alternative course of action (i.e., costs to society of protecting an area for biodiversity rather than developing it for some other use). Although different ways of integrating multiple opportunity costs into conservation planning have been suggested, there have been no tests as to which method is most efficient. We compared the relative efficiency of 3 such procedures ( Faith & Walker [1996] , Sarkar et al. [2004] , and a procedure of our own design) in a systematic conservation-planning framework for the Milne Bay Province of Papua New Guinea. We devised 14 opportunity costs and assigned these to 3 scenarios representing different conservation planning concerns: food security, macro-economic development, and biodiversity persistence. For each scenario, we compared the efficiency of the 3 methods in terms of amount of biodiversity protected relative to total expenditure for each opportunity cost. All 3 methods captured similar amounts of biodiversity, but differed in total cost. Our method had the least overall cost and was therefore most efficient. Nevertheless, there was a high correlation and geographical concordance among all 3 methods, indicating a high degree of spatial overlap. This suggests that choosing an appropriate approach may often depend on contextual factors related to the design of the planning question, rather than efficiency alone.     

兴安落叶松林地表可燃物含水率预测模型的研建

对大兴安岭落叶松林地表可燃物含水率影响因子进行分析,选取主要的环境因子,为该区域内林火管理工作提供重要的理论依据。利用软件SPSS Clementine12.0,将相对湿度、地表温度、空气温度作为输入神经元,将兴安落叶松林地表可燃物含水率作为神经网络输出神经元,建立基于BP神经网络的含水率模型。应用BP神经网络模型敏感度分析结果来评定环境因子对兴安落叶松林地表可燃物含水率影响的大小,分析表明,影响兴安落叶松林地表可燃物含水率的主要环境因子由小到大排序为:相对湿度、地表温度、空气温度。构建的兴安落叶松林地表可燃物含水率BP神经网络模型对该区域内的林火管理工作具有一定的借鉴意义。     

‘Schismo‐urbanism’: cities,natural disaster,and urban sociology

This paper examines a city and a natural disaster, specifically New Orleans, Louisiana, after Hurricane Katrina of August 2005. Recovery here is ongoing and the process of return is incomplete, with long‐term dislocation to other cities in the United States, such as Houston, Texas. The question arises as to how planning and stratification influence evacuation and return/dislocation and how they result in a particular practice of adaptation. This interrelated process is conceptually integrated and termed ‘schismo‐urbanism’ and is analysed within a multidimensional theoretical framework to evaluate aspects of urban sociology and natural disasters. Empirical research is based on a quantitative and qualitative mixed‐method case study. Data were collected during two rounds of field research in New Orleans and Houston in 2007 and 2009. As a comparative socio‐spatial study of affected and receptor communities, it makes a novel theoretical and methodological contribution to research on urban disasters in the context of continuing and rapid social change, and is targeted at disaster researchers, planning theorists and practitioners, and urbanists.     

活性炭烟气脱硫技术研究新进展

研制了新型活性炭脱硫剂－脱硫活性碳纤维。研究表明，脱硫活性碳纤维由于含碳量高、比表面积大、微孔丰富、孔径分布窄、有较多适于吸附ＳＯ２的表面官能团，因而吸附能力及吸附、脱附速度显著大于普通活性炭。在相同工艺条件下，脱硫活性碳纤维吸附容量为粒状疾性炭的４－５倍，空速粒达活性炭的１０倍。采用活性碳纤维脱硫可比普通活性碳脱硫剂用量成倍减少。另外，由于活性碳纤维阻力小，系统能耗可显著降低。活性碳烟气脱硫采用