Ken Burns and American Mythology in The National Parks: America's Best Idea

Ken Burns' series on the national parks reveals the evolving values of the American nation, particularly in relation to nature. Through both the beauty and the history of these set apart spaces, Burns presents and to some extent critiques America's mythic dreams of nature. Nature as new world garden and as frontier shapes the story that is told. This essay focuses on two themes, science and pluralism, and argues the presentation of each (the former with less depth, the latter with more) is constrained by the mythic narrative of pristine America that seems unable to evolve, either in the face of ecological values of interrelationships or pluralistic values that re-shape understandings of democracy. More attention to the problematic of the notion of preservation of pristine America would have enabled the film to speak more powerfully not only of the history of the parks, but also of their future.     

企业融资决策由于新会计准则而产生的影响因素分析

融资是企业筹集资金目前经常会运用的方式,企业融资就是指因为企业需要调整资本结构、生产经营管理、对外投资决策一系列活动希望通过金融机构和金融市场,运用适当的方式及手段获取所需资金的一种理财活动.企业获得资金转移信息的主要渠道是来自于会计领域,那么新企业会计准则制度的实施,必然有一些新的规定将对企业融资决策产生影响,此篇论文就将从这个角度探讨.     

广元市次生地质灾害分布特征及影响因素分析——以朝天区为例

四川省广元市朝天区是汶川8.0级地震的重灾区之一,由地震触发的崩塌、滑坡等次生地质灾害对人民群众生命财产安全构成巨大威胁。基于实地调查,对震后地质灾害隐患点进行了统计分析,指出了地震地质灾害的分布特征,并对其影响因素进行了深入分析。区内地震地质灾害点多分布在海拔800 m以上的陡坡或陡崖部位,并沿龙门山断裂带、嘉陵江水系及交通路线呈线状或带状分布。地震地质灾害的发生是内外力共同作用结果,其中地震力和断裂构造带对地质灾害发生起着决定性的作用,而地层岩性对灾种起关键性的作用,滑坡多发育在页岩、片岩、板岩、千枚岩等软岩分布区,崩塌多发育在灰岩、砂岩等硬岩分布区。     

Continuity,social change and Katrina

For some time, disaster researchers have looked for social change and mostly found continuity. This paper argues that shifting the focus from investigating social change to documenting continuity may enhance the understanding and planning of post‐disaster situations especially in industrialised societies like the United States. Drawing from qualitative data from post‐Katrina New Orleans, it proposes using the concept of continuity as an analytical device both to identify the axes of continuity and evaluate the likelihood and possible dimensions of social change. The analysis of long‐term recovery plans, along with field observations and interviews with evacuees, suggest that despite the well‐documented emergence of conflict in post‐Katrina New Orleans, the likelihood of social change appears limited.     

再论灾害研究的理论与实践

本文在作者１９９１年发表的“研究的现状与实践”一文基础上，全面分析了当前国外灾害理论研究的进展，对灾害理论研究中的２灾因子论，孕灾环境论，承灾体论进行了评述，并系统地阐述了区域灾害系统论的主要内容，即在综合分析组成区域灾害系统的致灾因子，孕灾环境，承灾体的基础上，通过对致灾因子的风险性评估，孕灾环境稳定性的分析，承灾体易损性的评价，揭示区域致灾与成灾过程中灾 情纬傻亩ρЩ?     

乌鲁木齐市水磨沟区生态环境现状及对策

乌鲁木齐市水磨沟区主要生态环境问题是：水资源不足,利用率低下;环境污染严重;土地利用率低,利用结构不合理;采矿区、塌陷区面积大,临近市区;工业布局、结构不合理;多数企业技术水平不高,环境代价高。按照国家环保总局建设生态示范区的要求提出了改善其生态环境的对策为：划分生态功能区域;加强水资源利用技术研究与应用;调整产品的结构;提高技术含量、改造污染行业;塌陷区回填复垦;污染控制和废水资源化;水土保持。     

USING REFERENCE SITES AND SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION TO ESTIMATE LONG‐TERM WATER LEVELS IN COASTAL PLAIN FORESTS1

ABSTRACT: The ability of regulators, resource managers, and consultants to assess accurately wetland hydrology is crucial when identifying and delineating wetlands. In this study, simple linear regression and long‐term (ten year) New Jersey Pinelands stream gaging and pitch pine lowland water‐level data sets were used to estimate long‐term hydroperiods at lowland test sites with short‐term (two year) records. Separate regression equations were developed for each test site using reference site data and stream gaging data, and two sets of equations for selected test sites were produced using two different short‐term periods of record. Test sites had long‐term records ranging from four to ten years, allowing validation of the regression models. Measured and predicted test site growing season water levels were similar regardless of which short‐term period of record was used. The results based on the stream gaging site data were similar, although the difference between measured and estimated growing season water levels was greater when this approach was used. Excellent agreement was found between measured and estimated frequencies of near‐surface saturation at test sites for each growing season month, and these relationships improved when cumulative, seasonal frequencies were considered. The reference wetland approach used in this study may have its greatest value in regions with both high development pressures and problem wetlands and may provide an effective way of resolving costly wetland delineation disputes.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON NEW YORK CITY'S WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: It has been well established that the greenhouse gas loading of the atmosphere has been increasing since the mid 19th century. Consequently, shifts in the earth's radiative balance are expected with accompanying alterations to the earth's climate. With these anticipated, and perhaps already observable, changes in both global and regional climate, managers of regional water resources seek insight to the possible impacts climate change may have on their present and future water supplies. The types and degrees of impacts that climate change may have on New York City's water supply system were assessed in a study of a watershed at Allaben, New York. Hypothetical scenarios of future climate and climate change projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used in conjunction with the WatBal hydrological model and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to ascertain how runoff and soil moisture from this watershed may change in a warmer climate. For the worst case predictions, the results indicate that within the century of the 2000s, the watershed's air temperature may increase up to about 11°F, while its precipitation and runoff may decrease by about 13 and 30 percent, respectively. If this watershed is typical of the others within the New York City water supply system, the system's managers should consider implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies in preparation for the worst of these possible future conditions.     

新亚欧大陆桥新疆段环境灾害的灰色拓扑预测

基于灰色系统理论中拓扑预测的理论方法 ,对新亚欧大陆桥新疆段环境灾害造成的受损长度进行了分析预测 .在对受损长度时序分布特征分析的基础上 ,给定一组阈值 ξi,并按不同的时间序列分别建立 GM(1.1)模型而得到模型群 .然后应用新亚欧大陆桥新疆段 38年(1959～1997年)的受损长度统计资料 ,对所建模型群进行了检验 ,并用此模型群对未来可能出现一定阈值范围内受损长度的年份进行了预测 .经检验 ,该模型群的原点误差范围为 0.090～6.520 ,精度范围为 72.658～ 97.134.结果表明 ,所建模型群精确度高 ,科学性较强 ,具有比较好的实用性 .