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231.
采用RAINS ASIA模型研究了"十一五"期间长三角地区实施脱硫措施前后硫沉降超临界负荷的变化.结果表明,在90%保证率下,长三角地区硫沉降的临界负荷(以S计,下同)总值为78.38万t/a;2005年该地区硫沉降的超临界负荷总值为27.98万t/a,有45.6%区域面积的硫沉降超过临界负荷;如果不实施脱硫措施,到2010年长三角地区硫沉降超临界负荷的情景将急剧恶化,硫沉降超临界负荷总值将增长18.4%,超临界负荷的区域面积将增加到48.7%;"十一五"脱硫计划如期实施后,2010年长三角地区硫沉降超临界负荷总值将在2005年的基础上下降27.4%,但仍有39.1%的区域面积超过临界负荷,须采取更严格的措施控制硫沉降量. 相似文献
232.
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234.
大辽河水系主要污染物特征分析 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
对大辽河流域主要污染物CODMn(或CODCr)和氨氮多年时空变化特征进行分析,认为二者浓度在空间上都有从上游到下游显著升高的趋势,年内变化呈现明显的点源特征。 相似文献
235.
Lim KJ Engel BA Tang Z Muthukrishnan S Choi J Kim K 《Journal of environmental management》2006,78(1):35-43
Urbanization can result in alteration of a watershed's hydrologic response and water quality. To simulate hydrologic and water quality impacts of land use changes, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) system has been used. The L-THIA system estimates pollutant loading based on direct runoff quantity and land use based pollutant coefficients. The accurate estimation of direct runoff is important in assessing water quality impacts of land use changes. An automated program was developed to calibrate the L-THIA model using the millions of curve number (CN) combinations associated with land uses and hydrologic soil groups. L-THIA calibration for the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed near Indianapolis, Indiana was performed using land use data for 1991 and daily rainfall data for six months of 1991 (January 1-June 30) to minimize errors associated with use of different temporal land use data and rainfall data. For the calibration period, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.60 for estimated and observed direct runoff. The calibrated CN values were used for validation of the model for the same year (July 1-December 31), and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.60 for estimated and observed direct runoff. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.52 for January 1, 1991 to December 31, 1991 using uncalibrated CN values. As shown in this study, the use of better input parameters for the L-THIA model can improve accuracy. The effects on direct runoff and pollutant estimation of the calibrated CN values in the L-THIA model were investigated for the LEC. Following calibration, the estimated average annual direct runoff for the LEC watershed increased by 34%, total nitrogen by 24%, total phosphorus by 22%, and total lead by 43%. This study demonstrates that the L-THIA model should be calibrated and validated prior to application in a particular watershed to more accurately assess the effects of land use changes on hydrology and water quality. 相似文献
236.
Dams in the Amazon: Belo Monte and Brazil’s Hydroelectric Development of the Xingu River Basin 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Fearnside PM 《Environmental management》2006,38(1):16-27
Hydroelectric dams represent major investments and major sources of environmental and social impacts. Powerful forces surround the decision-making process on public investments in the various options for the generation and conservation of electricity. Brazil’s proposed Belo Monte Dam (formerly Kararaô) and its upstream counterpart, the Altamira Dam (better known by its former name of Babaquara) are at the center of controversies on the decision-making process for major infrastructure projects in Amazonia. The Belo Monte Dam by itself would have a small reservoir area (440 km2) and large installed capacity (11, 181.3 MW), but the Altamira/Babaquara Dam that would regulate the flow of the Xingu River (thereby increasing power generation at Belo Monte) would flood a vast area (6140 km2). The great impact of dams provides a powerful reason for Brazil to reassess its current policies that allocate large amounts of energy in the country’s national grid to subsidized aluminum smelting for export. The case of Belo Monte and the five additional dams planned upstream (including the Altamira/Babaquara Dam) indicate the need for Brazil to reform its environmental assessment and licensing system to include the impacts of multiple interdependent projects. 相似文献
237.
TUGAI: An Integrated Simulation Tool for Ecological Assessment of Alternative Water Management Strategies in a Degraded River Delta 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Schlüter M Rüger N Savitsky AG Novikova NM Matthies M Lieth H 《Environmental management》2006,38(4):638-653
The development of ecologically sound water allocation strategies that account for the needs of riverine ecosystems is a pressing
issue, especially in semiarid river basins. In the Aral Sea Basin, a search for strategies to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic
deterioration has been in process since the early 1990s. The Geographic Information System–based simulation tool TUGAI has
been developed to support the policy determination process by providing a simple, problem-oriented method to assess ecological
effects of alternative water management strategies for the Amudarya River. It combines a multiobjective water allocation model
with simple, spatially explicit statistical and rule-based models of landscape dynamics. Changes in environmental conditions
are evaluated by a fuzzy habitat suitability index for Populus euphratica, which is the dominant species of the characteristic riverine Tugai forests. Water management scenarios can be developed
by altering spatiotemporal water distribution in the delta area or the amount of water inflow into the delta. Outcomes of
scenario analysis are qualitative comparisons of the ecological effects of different options for a time period of up to 28
years. The given approach utilizes different types of knowledge, from quantitative hydrological data to qualitative local
expert knowledge. The main purpose of the tool is to integrate the knowledge in a comprehensive way to make it available for
discussions on alternative policies in moderated workshops with stakeholders. In this article, the modules of the tool, their
integration, and three hypothetical scenarios are presented. Based on the experience gained when developing the TUGAI tool,
we propose that the general framework can be transferred to other areas where tradeoffs in water allocation between the environment
and other water users are of major concern. The potential for a simulation tool to structure and inform a complex resource
management situation by involving local experts and stakeholders in the development of possible future scenarios will become
increasingly valuable for transparent and participatory resource management. 相似文献
238.
Assessing Impacts of Typhoons and the Chi-Chi Earthquake on Chenyulan Watershed Landscape Pattern in Central Taiwan Using Landscape Metrics 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
The Chi-Chi earthquake (ML = 7.3) occurred in the central part of Taiwan on September 21, 1999. After the earthquake, typhoons Xangsane and Toraji produced
heavy rainfall that fell across the eastern and central parts of Taiwan on November 2000 and July 2001. This study uses remote
sensing data, landscape metrics, multivariate statistical analysis, and spatial autocorrelation to assess how earthquake and
typhoons affect landscape patterns. It addresses variations of the Chenyulan watershed in Nantou County, near the earthquake’s
epicenter and crossed by Typhoon Toraji. The subsequent disturbances have gradually changed landscape of the Chenyulan watershed.
Disturbances of various types, sizes, and intensities, following various tracks, have various effects on the landscape patterns
and variations of the Chenyulan watershed. The landscape metrics that are obtained by multivariate statistical analyses showed
that the disturbances produced variously fragmented patches, interspersed with other patches and isolated from patches of
the same type across the entire Chenyulan watershed. The disturbances also affected the isolation, size, and shape-complexity
of patches at the landscape and class levels. The disturbances at the class level more strongly affected spatial variations
in the landscape as well as patterns of grasslands and bare land, than variations in the watershed farmland and forest. Moreover,
the earthquake with high magnitude was a starter to create these landscape variations in space in the Chenyulan watershed.
The cumulative impacts of the disturbances on the watershed landscape pattern had existed, especially landslides and grassland
in the study area, but were not always evident in space and time in landscape and other class levels. 相似文献
239.
River channel migration and cutoff events within large river riparian corridors create heterogeneous and biologically diverse
landscapes. However, channel stabilization (riprap and levees) impede the formation and maintenance of riparian areas. These
impacts can be mitigated by setting channel constraints away from the channel. Using a meander migration model to measure
land affected, we examined the relationship between setback distance and riparian and off-channel aquatic habitat formation
on a 28-km reach of the Sacramento River, California, USA. We simulated 100 years of channel migration and cutoff events
using 11 setback scenarios: 1 with existing riprap and 10 assuming setback constraints from about 0.5 to 4 bankfull channel
widths (bankfull width: 235 m) from the channel. The percentage of land reworked by the river in 100 years relative to current
(riprap) conditions ranged from 172% for the 100-m constraint setback scenario to 790% for the 800-m scenario. Three basic
patterns occur as the setback distance increases due to different migration and cutoff dynamics: complete restriction of cutoffs,
partial restriction of cutoffs, and no restriction of cutoffs. Complete cutoff restriction occurred at distances less than
about one bankfull channel width (235 m), and no cutoff restriction occurred at distances greater than about three bankfull
widths (∼700 m). Managing for point bars alone allows the setbacks to be narrower than managing for cutoffs and aquatic habitat.
Results suggest that site-specific “restriction of cutoff” thresholds can be identified to optimize habitat benefits versus
cost of acquired land along rivers affected by migration processes. 相似文献
240.
Employing in-depth, elite interviews, this empirical research contributes to understanding the dynamics among policy windows,
policy change, and organizational learning. First, although much of the research on agenda setting—how issues attract enough
attention that action is taken to address them—has been conducted at the national scale, this work explores the subnational,
regional scale. With decentralization, regional-scale environmental decision-making has become increasingly important. Second,
this research highlights the role of policy windows and instances of related organizational learning identified by natural
resources managers. Having practitioners identify focusing events contrasts with the more typical approach of the researcher
identifying a particular focusing event or events to investigate. A focusing event is a sudden, exceptional experience that,
because of how it leads to harm or exposes the prospect for great devastation, is perceived as the impetus for policy change. 相似文献