基于数学模型的海平面上升对咸潮上溯的影响

气候变化导致的海平面上升对沿海地区构成极大的威胁,海平面上升已经成为全球重要的环境问题,受到社会各界的高度重视。研究建立了一维动态潮流-含氯度数学模型,计算了海平面上升对咸潮上溯的影响,结果显示:250 mg/L的咸度线随着上游来水频率的增大,咸潮上溯距离明显增大;一定上游来水条件下,随着海平面的上升,咸潮上溯界线向上游方向移动显著。并详细计算了代表口门在海平面上升10 cm、30 cm和60 cm的情况下,咸潮界线的具体上移距离,以期给三角洲地区城市供水、农业灌溉引水等提供理论指导,减轻海平面上升危害,以确保21世纪中国沿海地区资源、环境、经济和社会的可持续发展。     

流域—河口三角洲湿地生态系统健康评价研究进展

综述了三角洲湿地生态系统的概念、特征、基本类型,并对湿地生态系统健康进行了基本的界定;全面总结了三角洲湿地生态健康评价模型和指标体系构建;系统介绍了模糊生物综合指数法、河流湿地的溪流状况指数、综合评价方法、压力—状态—相应模型等生态健康评价方法及指标参数选取,并就景观参数指标进行了详细论述。     

Willingness to pay for agricultural flood insurance in the Mekong River Delta

Increasing urbanization and industrial development upstream of the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam (MRD) including the construction of a series of dams for hydroelectricity generation is changing the downstream risk of flooding. Concerns about the likely influence of global climate change and rising sea levels add further uncertainty to this risk that threatens the livelihood of farmers. With this in mind and in view of the under-developed state of the market for crop insurance in the MRD, we survey rice growers to explore their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for crop insurance by using a choice experiment. The experimental design comprised five attributes, including the type of peril covered – riverine flooding (flooding); flooding triggered by tidal regimes (inundation); or flooding, inundation and wind damage – type of provider; extent of cover and deductible and premium. Two hundred and twenty-six rice-growing farmers were surveyed with each farmer responding to six different choices. Our study shows that WTPs for an insurance plan covering a loss up to 2 million VND/1000m²/farming season and having a deductible of 25% of the potential (profit) crop value varied between 200,000 and 500,000?VND/1000m² (1USD?=?22,550 Vietnamese Dong – VND) for each rice growing season, implying a potential market for crop insurance.     

The adsorption of PCBs to Yangtse River sediment

The adsorption of six PCB congeners to natural sediments from the Yangtse River was investigated. Experiments were conducted at different PCB concentrations to get the adsorption isotherm for each compound. Analytical determinations were carried out using gas chromato‐graphy with ECD detector. Results showed that the adsorption mechanism of PCBs on Yangtse River sediment fitted the best to the Langmuir adsorption model. It was also found that the adsorption rate decreased as the solubility increased or the octanol‐water partition coefficient decreased for each compound.     

Organochlorine pesticides and PCBs in sediments from the Yangtse River,China

Organochlorine Pesticides and PCBs pollution levels were determined in sediment samples taken from three sites along the Yangtse River (Nanjing part). The concentrations of various pesticides were in the range of 1.42–8.06 ng/g (t‐HCH), and <0.01–4.12ng/g (t‐DDT), while the concentrations of PCBs were below detection limit at all three sites. The contamination by Organochlorine Pesticides and PCBs in sediments from the Yangtse River was not significant when compared with that reported in the literature from some other countries’ rivers, which may be due to the high flow velocity and water amount of the Yangtse River.     

黄河水文特征对河口海岸变化的影响

论文选取海陆变化频繁的黄河口作为研究区,在3S技术支持下采用平均高潮线法对1976-2002年18个年份的遥感影像进行了海岸线信息提取。对研究区海岸变化的叠加分析表明:1976-2002年间黄河口海岸的演变过程分为直线增长、波动增长和波动减少3个阶段。同时,黄河口水文特征的变化规律及其对岸线变化影响的分析揭示了黄河水沙状况与河口海岸线的年际变化呈线性回归关系,指出了输沙量为河口海岸变化的主要驱动力,而径流量和含沙量是通过影响输沙量而间接影响河口海岸线变化,确定了输沙量3.517×108t/a为河口海陆变迁的临界值。     

长江三角洲平原南部上新世以来古环境演变及多重地层划分

对长江三角洲平原BZK01钻孔进行沉积物¹⁴C测年、粒度、磁学、孢粉和微体古生物分析,结合伽玛测井、岩性地层讨论了上新世以来钻孔揭示的孢粉组合、沉积环境演化、沉积相和古气候特征,建立了钻孔的第四纪多重地层划分对比框架。结果表明,受原始地形地貌、海平面变化、海陆变迁、古气候冷暖更替及新构造运动的影响,研究区上新世以来经历了多次环境变化。钻孔自下而上揭示岩性地层依次为基岩长河组、新近纪-第四纪沉积的嘉兴组、前港组、东浦组、宁波组、镇海组,孢粉组合可划分出16个孢粉带,按暖期温暖潮湿-冷期寒冷干燥古气候旋回变化的周期律,BZK01钻孔反映该区域共存在7个古气候旋回。建立的钻孔多重地层划分对比揭示151.9～278.0 m为河流相和河湖相交替沉积的上新世-早更新世时期,存在两个气候旋回过程;83.5～151.9 m为河流相-河湖相-浅湖相沉积环境的中更新世,包含两个气候旋回过程;15.4～83.5 m为晚更新世,沉积环境自下而上为河口相-河湖相-潮坪相-滨海相-河湖相,与王店海侵-杭州海侵时期对应,包括两个气候旋回;0～15.4 m为河口相-河湖相-泻湖相沉积环境的全新世,对应富阳海侵,包括一个气候旋回。     

长江三角洲城市群城乡统筹发展的空间差别化研究

以长江三角洲地区为研究对象,根据城乡统筹的内涵及特点,构建了城乡统筹发展水平的综合评价指标体系。采用全局主成分分析方法,对2000、2008年两个年份的城乡统筹水平进行了定量评估,并分析了影响长三角地区城乡统筹发展水平的影响因素。研究结果表明:①各城市城乡统筹水平差异显著,2000～2008年相对差距有微弱扩大的趋势,局部发生变动;②各城市城乡统筹水平由城市群外围向中心逐渐递增;③影响长三角城市群各城市城乡统筹发展水平的四大因子是城镇化因子、外向型经济因子、城乡收入水平及城乡交流因子。最后对长江三角洲城市群城乡统筹发展提出了有关的对策建议。     

珠江三角洲大气中甲基叔丁基醚的污染特征研究

应用先进的大气采样罐、大气样品预浓缩技术和气相色谱/质谱联用仪器,采取长期观测和加强观测方法详细地研究了珠江三角洲大气环境中MTBE的污染浓度水平及其时空分布特征.结果表明,①目前该地区的工业区、交通区以及居住、商业和交通混合区等大气环境中普遍能够检测出MTBE污染物,长期观测的小时浓度均值变化范围从0～1.250 μg·m^-3,夏季污染较冬季更为严重,高浓度的MTBE污染物主要集中在城区,郊区显著受到上风向城市和周边城市污染源排放的影响.②夏季加强观测期间,广州市区的日均浓度为(1.520±0.370) μg·m^-3,约为其下风向郊区花都测点的7倍和清洁区从化监测点的100倍.城区呈现早晚2个污染物浓度峰值,夜间为平均浓度最低值时段,而郊区夜间反而出现高浓度峰值.③冬季加强观测期间,广州市城区的日均浓度为(0.950±0.240) μg·m^-3,为其下风向郊区新垦测点的3.6倍,出现多个峰谷,城区在18:00～22:00点均具有较高的污染物浓度,郊区则在次日的04:00～10:00点具有相对较高的污染物浓度.④在光照比较弱的时段市区交通干线附近的大气MTBE浓度随着距地面高度增加而降低,而在光照比较强的时段则随着距地面高度增加反而有所上升,反映出市区近地面大气MTBE污染物除了主要来自机动车尾气排放之外,还有明显的大气光化学反应生成的二次污染物来源.     

The Dynamics of Urban Ecosystem Governance in Rotterdam,The Netherlands

We explore whether Rotterdam city has the governance capacity in terms of processes at place, and the attention in terms of vision and strategy to take up an integrated approach toward urban resilience. We adopt an interpretative policy analysis approach to assess the dynamics of urban ecosystem governance considering interviews, gray literature, and facilitated dialogues with policy practitioners. We show the inner workings of local government across strategic, operational, tactical, and reflective governance processes about the way urban ecosystems are regulated. Despite the existing capacity to steer such processes, a number of underlying challenges exist: need for coordination between planning departments; need to ease the integration of new policy objectives into established adaptive policy cycles; and need to assess the lessons learnt from pilots and emerging green initiatives. Regulating and provisioning ecosystem services receive heightened policy attention. Focus on regulating services is maintained by a policy renewal cycle that limits and delays consideration of other ecosystem services in policy and planning.