安全投入模型的研究

从安全投入产出分析的角度为安全投入决策提出一个新视角,相比于直接用生产函数等数学方法得到安全投入与安全产出的关系,通过软件分析得出各个要素与安全产出的关系,再进行拟合,最后得到安全产出回归方程,这样得到的分析结果更准确和可信。通过实例可以证明如果要确定安全投入要素之间的分配比例可以采用生产函数分析方法,如要预测安全产出可以采用根据散点图做出的回归方程。另外,在分析安全投入要素相对重要度时,因为各个投入要素的数量级和单位的不同,回归方程系数应选择标准化回归系数;要预测安全投入产生的安全产出则应采用非标准化回归系数。     

张北6.2级地震邯郸地区前兆异常特征研究

1998年1月10日张北发生MS6.2级地震。在震前一、二年,远在400km外的邯郸地区的多种前兆手段准同步地出现了中期异常变化,这些异常的变化幅度显著,在时间上与张北地震有较好的对应关系,信度较高。分析邯郸地区的前兆异常与张北地震的关系,有利于该区强震监测预报水平的提高,也可为地震前兆特征和机理的深入研究提供实际依据。     

地表水功能衰退因素及生态修复措施--以温岭市北山河为例

由于城市规模的不断扩大,温岭市的地表水污染问题十分严重,原有的功能已逐渐丧失,生态系统日趋恶化。在全面调查北山河地表水水质现状和污染源源强的基础上,通过对污染特性等方面的分析,得出了地表水功能衰退的原因,为有效修复地表水的功能,按照现有的功能,提出了改善水环境的生态条件、逐步形成一个人工生态系统的生态修复思路和对地表水采取标本兼治的措施。     

呼伦贝尔市可持续发展战略探讨

呼伦贝尔市在生态示范区创建中，确立了稳固环境与资源基础、保护北疆生态屏障的战略目标；统一了预防为先、保护为主、建设为辅的生态保护思想；确定了在经济结构调整和生产方式的转变中实现环境与经济“双赢”的创建道路；把生态示范区建设的目标任务具体为工程、项目，保证了创建工作的顺利进行，走出了一条在我国北部边疆少数民族地区开展生态示范区建设的道路。     

城市表层土壤重金属污染分析研究

根据某城市土壤表层中的8种重金属Cu、Pb、Cd、Hg、As、Cr、Ni、Zn的浓度数据,利用地统计学原理方法,研究了不同功能区土壤重金属的污染特征。结果表明Cd、Cu、Hg、Pb和Zn在工业区和主干道路区浓度超标,并且这几种元素的富集系数偏高,说明污染来源主要是工业生产、汽车尾气排放及汽车轮胎磨损等。此研究对城市土壤重金属污染治理及修复、重金属污染重点行业污染控制等提供参考。     

石家庄大气污染物输送通道及污染源区研究

为探索石家庄的区域输送规律,确定主要污染源区,利用HYSPLIT(Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrater Trajectory)后向轨迹模式和NCEP的GDAS全球气象要素数据,对2013—2016年从不同高度上抵达石家庄地区的逐日72 h气流后向轨迹进行聚类分析,并结合石家庄逐小时颗粒物污染物浓度数据,分析石家庄PM2.5的潜在源贡献因子(WPSCF)和浓度权重轨迹(WCWT).结果表明,(1)石家庄PM2.5浓度具有明显单峰谷日变化,秋冬季与春夏季峰谷值出现时间不同;(2)近地层大气污染输送路径以近距离,移速慢的轨迹为主,轨迹较短的路径所占比例在40%以上.除夏季外,近距离输送路径均存在螺旋转向,在后向48~36 h内轨迹端点到达河北省内,转为东向和南向输送.(3)大气污染输送通道的垂直分布特征表明,输送轨迹中低于500 m高度的轨迹点占28.7%,高于1000 m低于3000 m高度的轨迹点占36.1%,高于3000 m高度的轨迹点占25.3%.低层多以近距离输送为主,高度越高,近距离输送轨迹的频率越低.500 m高度输送通道仍以近距离输送为主,并存在螺旋转向,1500 m高度以上多远距离输送.(4)石家庄PM2.5的主要污染源区范围较小.途径河北中南部、河南北部、山东西部和山西中北部地区的轨迹对石家庄PM2.5的污染贡献最大.     

山区土壤重金属空间插值性能的改进

山区土壤重金属监测中,密集均匀的布点采样困难大,成本高。根据稀疏非均匀样本数据准确预测山区土壤重金属空间分布,对可视化描述检测元素的分布及趋势具有重要意义。基于云南省楚雄市南部山区表层土壤中重金属锰、钒的采样数据,对集成径向基函数神经网络(IRBFANNs)和传统插值方法:反距离(IDW)、普通克里格(OK)、径向基函数神经网络(RBFANNs),进行了不同等级采样密度下的插值性能比较。结果表明,样本点数量减少时,传统预测方法的插值精度都有所下降,而IRBFANNs算法在样本点较少情况下能够保持最好的插值精确度和稳定性,有效改进了空间插值性能。     

Injury risk functions for frontal oblique collisions

Objective: The objective of this article was the construction of injury risk functions (IRFs) for front row occupants in oblique frontal crashes and a comparison to IRF of nonoblique frontal crashes from the same data set.

Method: Crashes of modern vehicles from GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study) were used as the basis for the construction of a logistic injury risk model. Static deformation, measured via displaced voxels on the postcrash vehicles, was used to calculate the energy dissipated in the crash. This measure of accident severity was termed objective equivalent speed (oEES) because it does not depend on the accident reconstruction and thus eliminates reconstruction biases like impact direction and vehicle model year. Imputation from property damage cases was used to describe underrepresented low-severity crashes―a known shortcoming of GIDAS. Binary logistic regression was used to relate the stimuli (oEES) to the binary outcome variable (injured or not injured).

Results: IRFs for the oblique frontal impact and nonoblique frontal impact were computed for the Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 2+ and 3+ levels for adults (18–64 years). For a given stimulus, the probability of injury for a belted driver was higher in oblique crashes than in nonoblique frontal crashes. For the 25% injury risk at MAIS 2+ level, the corresponding stimulus for oblique crashes was 40 km/h but it was 64 km/h for nonoblique frontal crashes.

Conclusions: The risk of obtaining MAIS 2+ injuries is significantly higher in oblique crashes than in nonoblique crashes. In the real world, most MAIS 2+ injuries occur in an oEES range from 30 to 60 km/h.     

Variation in immune function, body condition, and feather corticosterone in nestling Tree Swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) on reclaimed wetlands in the Athabasca oil sands, Alberta, Canada

In the Athabasca oil sands region of northern Alberta, mining companies are evaluating reclamation using constructed wetlands for integration of tailings. From May to July 2008, reproductive performance of 40 breeding pairs of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor), plus growth and survival of nestlings, was measured on three reclaimed wetlands on two oil sands leases. A subset of nestlings was examined for i) feather corticosterone levels, ii) delayed-type hypersensitivity response, and iii) innate immune function. Nestlings on one of two wetlands created with oil sands process affected material (OSPM) were heavier and had greater wing-lengths, and mounted a stronger delayed-type hypersensitivity response compared those on the reference wetland. Corticosterone was significantly higher in male nestlings on one of two OSPM-containing wetland compared to the reference wetland. Body condition of 12-day-old female nestlings was inversely related to feather corticosterone. Under ideal weather conditions, reclaimed wetlands can support healthy populations of aerially-insectivorous birds.     

Effects of ozone on growth, yield and leaf gas exchange rates of two Bangladeshi cultivars of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

To clarify the effects of O₃ on crop plants cultivated in Bangladesh, two Bangladeshi wheat cultivars (Sufi and Bijoy) were grown in plastic boxes filled with Andisol and exposed daily to charcoal-filtered air or O₃ at 60 and 100 nl l⁻¹ (10:00-17:00) from 13 March to 4 June 2008. The whole-plant dry mass and grain yield per plant of the two cultivars at the final harvest were significantly reduced by the exposure to O₃. Although there was no significant effect of O₃ on stomatal diffusive conductance to H₂O of flag leaf, net photosynthetic rate of the leaf was significantly reduced by the exposure to O_3. The sensitivity of growth, yield, yield components and leaf gas exchange rates to O₃ was not significantly different between the two cultivars. The results obtained in the present study suggest that ambient levels of O₃ may detrimentally affect wheat production in Bangladesh.