MACROSCALE HYDROLOGIC MODELING FOR REGIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT STUDIES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UMTED STATES1

ABSTRACT: A macroscale hydrologic model is developed for regional climate assessment studies under way in the southeastern United States. The hydrologic modeling strategy is developed to optimize spatial representation of basin characteristics while maximizing computational efficiency. The model employs the “grouped response unit” methodology, which follows the natural drainage pattern of the area. First order streams are delineated and their surface characteristics are tested so that areas with statistically similar characteristics can be combined into larger computational zones for modeling purposes. Hydrologic response units (HRU) are identified within the modeling units and a simple three‐layer water balance model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), is executed for each HRU. The runoff values are then convoluted using a triangular unit hydrograph and routed by Muskingum‐Cunge method. The methodology is shown to produce accurate results relative to other studies, when compared to observations. The model is used to evaluate the potential error in hydrologic assessments when using GCM predictions as climatic input in a rainfall‐runoff dominated environment. In such areas, the results from this study, although limited in temporal and spatial scope, appear to imply that use of GCM climate predictions in short term quantitative analyses studies in rainfall‐runoff dominated environments should proceed with caution.     

Marshaling Adaptive Capacities within an Adaptive Management Framework to Enhance the Resiliency of Wastewater Systems

We assess adaptive capacity and adaptive management as measures of wastewater (WW) system resiliency using data from interviews with WW system managers (hereafter managers) impacted by past storms. Results suggest the most resilient WW systems are those with high adaptive capacities that employ an adaptive management approach to make ongoing adaptation investments over time. Greater amounts of generic adaptive capacities (i.e., skilled staff and good leadership) help smooth both day‐to‐day and emergency operations and provide a foundation for adaptive management. In turn, adaptive management helps managers both build more generic adaptive capacities, and develop and employ greater amounts and diversity of specific adaptive capacities (i.e., soft and/or hard adaptations) that are especially important for enhancing and sustaining resiliency. Adaptive management also enables managers to better understand their system's vulnerabilities, how those vulnerabilities change over time, and what specific actions may reduce those vulnerabilities. Finally, our work suggests WW system resilience critically depends on the capacities of the human systems for building resilience as much as or more so than relying only on physical infrastructure resilience. Our work contributes to filling an important gap in the literature by advancing our understanding of the human dimensions of infrastructure resilience and has practical implications for advancing resilience in the WW sector.     

Shift of Spawning Season and Effects of Climate Warming on Developmental Stages of a Grayling (Salmonidae)

Abstract: River‐dwelling fish, such as European graylings (Thymallus thymallus), are susceptible to changes in climate because they can often not avoid suboptimal temperatures, especially during early developmental stages. We analyzed data collected in a 62‐year‐long (1948–2009) population monitoring program. Male and female graylings were sampled about three times/week during the yearly spawning season in order to follow the development of the population. The occurrence of females bearing ripe eggs was used to approximate the timing of each spawning season. In the last years of the study, spawning season was more than 3 weeks earlier than in the first years. This shift was linked to increasing water temperatures as recorded over the last 39 years with a temperature logger at the spawning site. In early spring water temperatures rose more slowly than in later spring. Thus, embryos and larvae were exposed to increasingly colder water at a stage that is critical for sex determination and pathogen resistance in other salmonids. In summer, however, fry were exposed to increasingly warmer temperatures. The changes in water temperatures that we found embryos, larvae, and fry were exposed to could be contributing to the decline in abundance that has occurred over the last 30–40 years.     

Evaluation of near surface ozone in air quality simulations forced by a regional climate model over Europe for the period 1991–2000

This study aims to evaluate near surface ozone simulated with the modelling system RegCM3/CAMx against ozone measurements from the EMEP database for the recent decade 1991–2000. The RegCM3/CAMx simulations were performed on a 50 km × 50 km grid over Europe driven either by ERA-40 reanalysis (hereafter referred as ERA simulation) or the global circulation model (GCM) ECHAM5 (hereafter referred as ECHAM simulation). A set of statistical metrics is used for the model evaluation, including temporal correlation coefficient, the ratio of the standard deviations and the bias of simulated versus observed values. Overall, a good agreement is found for both ERA and ECHAM simulations at the majority of the selected EMEP stations in all metrics throughout the year based either on monthly or daily ozone values. Based on these results, it is assessed that the modelling system RegCM3/CAMx is suitable to be used for present and future regional climate-air quality simulations with emphasis on near surface ozone. The ERA simulations reproduce more accurately the observed ozone values in comparison to ECHAM simulations because the meteorology of the ERA experiment is closer to real atmospheric conditions than the GCM based experiment. On a seasonal basis, both ERA and ECHAM simulations exhibit a seasonally dependent bias, with winter and spring ozone values being generally under-estimated by the model and summer and autumn values being slightly overestimated. This seasonally dependent bias is also evident from median and peak midday ozone values. However, the highest observed midday ozone peaks in summer, with values higher than 80 ppbv, could not be captured either by ERA or ECHAM simulations. An analysis of day-time and night-time ERA and ECHAM modelled ozone values shows that CAMx performs better during the day-time.     

The Czech Republic’s approach to the EU 2030 climate and energy framework

ABSTRACT

The East-West divide within the EU over climate policy has been frequently discussed. There is a tendency in the literature to focus on Poland and ignore the other countries in the central and eastern European region. Here it is argued that the institutionalised cooperation between the four countries in the Visegrad Group (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) provides a crucial component for an understanding of how the participating countries approach EU climate negotiations. Here it is suggested that the group is important as a bargaining coalition but also as a reference point for the development of shared ‘Visegrad’ norms in the field. This is based on a case study of the Czech Republic’s approach to the 2014 negotiations on the 2030 climate and energy framework and the country’s cooperation with the other Visegrad countries on the issue.     

Incorporating connectivity into conservation planning for the optimal representation of multiple species and ecosystem services

Conservation planning tends to focus on protecting species’ ranges or landscape connectivity but seldom both—particularly in the case of diverse taxonomic assemblages and multiple planning goals. Therefore, information on potential trade-offs between maintaining landscape connectivity and achieving other conservation objectives is lacking. We developed an optimization approach to prioritize the maximal protection of species’ ranges, ecosystem types, and forest carbon stocks, while also including habitat connectivity for range-shifting species and dispersal corridors to link protected area. We applied our approach to Sabah, Malaysia, where the state government mandated an increase in protected-area coverage of approximately 305,000 ha but did not specify where new protected areas should be. Compared with a conservation planning approach that did not incorporate the 2 connectivity features, our approach increased the protection of dispersal corridors and elevational connectivity by 13% and 21%, respectively. Coverage of vertebrate and plant species’ ranges and forest types were the same whether connectivity was included or excluded. Our approach protected 2% less forest carbon and 3% less butterfly range than when connectivity features were not included. Hence, the inclusion of connectivity into conservation planning can generate large increases in the protection of landscape connectivity with minimal loss of representation of other conservation targets.     

Polynomial response of 2,4-D mineralization to temperature in soils at varying soil moisture contents,slope positions and depths

The herbicide 2,4-D [2,4-(dichlorophenoxy) acetic acid] is a widely used broadleaf control agent in cereal production systems. Although 2,4-D soil-residual activity (half-lives) are typicaly less than 10 days, this herbicide also has as a short-term leaching potential due to its relatively weak retention by soil constituents. Herbicide residual effects and leaching are influenced by environmental variables such as soil moisture and temperature. The objective of this study was to determine impacts of these environmental variables on the magnitude and extent of 2,4-D mineralization in a cultivated undulating Manitoba prairie landscape. Microcosm incubation experiments were utilized to assess 2,4-D half-lives and total mineralization using a 4 × 4 × 3 × 2 factorial design (with soil temperature at 4 levels: 5, 10, 20 and 40°C; soil moisture at 4 levels: 60, 85, 110, 135 % of field capacity; slope position at 3 levels: upper-, mid- and lower-slopes; and soil depth at 2 levels: 0–5 cm and 5–15 cm). Half-lives (t_1/2) varied from 3 days to 51 days with the total 2,4-D mineralization (M _T ) ranging from 5.8 to 50.9 %. The four-way interaction (temperature × moisture × slope × depth) significantly (p< 0.001) influenced both t_1/2 and M _T. Second-order polynomial equations best described the relations of temperature with t_1/2 and M_T as was expected from a biological system. However, the interaction and variability of t_1/2 and M_T among different temperatures, soil moistures, slope positions, and soil depth combinations indicates that the complex nature of these interacting factors should be considered when applying 2,4-D in agricultural fields and in utilizing these parameters in pesticide fate models.     

Degradation of fenamiphos in soils collected from different geographical regions: The influence of soil properties and climatic conditions

The persistence of fenamiphos (nematicide) in five soils collected from different geographical regions such as Australia, Ecuador and India under three temperature regimes (18, 25 and 37°C) simulating typical environmental conditions was studied. The effect of soil properties (soil pH, temperature and microbial biomass) on the degradation of fenamiphos was determined. The rate of degradation increased with increase in temperature. Fenamiphos degradation was higher at 37°C than at 25 and 18°C (except under alkaline pH). The degradation pathway differed in different soils. Fenamiphos sulfoxide (FSO) was identified as the major degradation product in all the soils. Fenamiphos sulfone (FSO₂), and the corresponding phenols: fenamiphos phenol (FP), fenamiphos sulfoxide phenol (FSOP) and fenamiphos sulfone phenol (FSO₂P) were also detected. The degradation of fenamiphos was faster in the alkaline soils, followed by neutral and acidic soils. Under sterile conditions, the dissipation of the pesticide was slower than in the non-sterile soils suggesting microbial role in the pesticide degradation. The generation of new knowledge on fenamiphos degradation patterns under different environmental conditions is important to achieve better pesticide risk management.     

The Effects of Discussion of Familiar or Non-Familiar Information on Opinions of Anthropogenic Climate Change

ABSTRACT

The study found that encountering new information in an online chat rather than information that participants already knew and were familiar with was more likely to reduce support for the view that climate change is due to anthropogenic causes, even though the majority of the presented information supported anthropogenic causes. Participants reported feeling more competent and knowledgeable about the topic and felt less ostracized from others in the chat when participants were already familiar with information others discussed than when information discussed by others in the chat was new information. However, they viewed other chat members as more competent and knowledgeable when those others mentioned new information. Results are discussed within knowledge deficit model of science communication and the bias for common information.     

Breeding Periodicity for Male Sea Turtles,Operational Sex Ratios,and Implications in the Face of Climate Change

Abstract: Species that have temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD) often produce highly skewed offspring sex ratios contrary to long‐standing theoretical predictions. This ecological enigma has provoked concern that climate change may induce the production of single‐sex generations and hence lead to population extirpation. All species of sea turtles exhibit TSD, many are already endangered, and most already produce sex ratios skewed to the sex produced at warmer temperatures (females). We tracked male loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) from Zakynthos, Greece, throughout the entire interval between successive breeding seasons and identified individuals on their breeding grounds, using photoidentification, to determine breeding periodicity and operational sex ratios. Males returned to breed at least twice as frequently as females. We estimated that the hatchling sex ratio of 70:30 female to male for this rookery will translate into an overall operational sex ratio (OSR) (i.e., ratio of total number of males vs females breeding each year) of close to 50:50 female to male. We followed three male turtles for between 10 and 12 months during which time they all traveled back to the breeding grounds. Flipper tagging revealed the proportion of females returning to nest after intervals of 1, 2, 3, and 4 years were 0.21, 0.38, 0.29, and 0.12, respectively (mean interval 2.3 years). A further nine male turtles were tracked for short periods to determine their departure date from the breeding grounds. These departure dates were combined with a photoidentification data set of 165 individuals identified on in‐water transect surveys at the start of the breeding season to develop a statistical model of the population dynamics. This model produced a maximum likelihood estimate that males visit the breeding site 2.6 times more often than females (95%CI 2.1, 3.1), which was consistent with the data from satellite tracking and flipper tagging. Increased frequency of male breeding will help ameliorate female‐biased hatchling sex ratios. Combined with the ability of males to fertilize the eggs of many females and for females to store sperm to fertilize many clutches, our results imply that effects of climate change on the viability of sea turtle populations are likely to be less acute than previously suspected.