RECENT RESEARCH ON EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: Concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and other radiatively active trace gases have risen since the Industrial Revolution. Such atmospheric modifications can alter the global climate and hydrologic cycle, in turn affecting water resources. The clear physical and biological sensitivities of water resources to climate, the indication that climate change may be occurring, and the substantial social and economic dependencies on water resources have instigated considerable research activity in the area of potential water resource impacts. We discuss how the literature on climate change and water resources responds to three basic research needs: (1) a need for water managers to clearly describe the climatic and hydrologic statistics and characteristics needed to estimate climatic impacts on water resources, (2) a need to estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources, and (3) a need to evaluate standard water management and planning methods to determine if uncertainty regarding fundamental assumptions (e.g., hydrologic stationarity) implies that these methods should be revised. The climatic and hydrologic information needs for water resource managers can be found in a number of sources. A proliferation of impact assessments use a variety of methods for generating climate scenarios, and apply both modeling approaches and historical analyses of past responses to climate fluctuations for revealing resource or system sensitivities to climate changes. Traditional techniques of water resources planning and management have been examined, yielding, for example, suggestions for new methods for incorporating climate information in real-time water management.     

An evaluation of the impact of persistent water level changes on the areal extent of Georgian Bay/North Channel marshlands

A conceptual mathematical model has recently been devised to assist environmental managers in predicting the impact on coastal marsh areas of long-term changes in water levels. The model considers such impact solely in terms of the geometry of the confining basin, the change in ambient water level, and the maximum depth for which bottom-rooted emergent vegetation is present. This model is applied to 17 shoreline marshes of various shapes in the Georgian Bay/North Channel region of the Great Lakes.Model outputs of predicted maximum and minimum marsh area subsequent to changes in long-term levels are compared to marsh areas measured from available historical air photos dating from 1935 to 1985. The results of such comparisons indicate that such a geometric model, despite its neglect of the biological complexities of marsh ecology, can serve as a valuable tool for assessing the range of impacts of both natural and man-made changes in long-term ambient water levels on shoreline marshes.     

栽培水分对采摘后油菜硝酸盐与亚硝酸盐含量的影响

采用盆栽方法栽培油菜(Brassicaca mpestrisL.),研究了灌水水平对采摘后油菜植株体硝酸盐与亚硝酸盐含量随时间变化的影响。共设高(灌水控制上限为田间持水量)、中(灌水控制上限为田间持水量的75%)和低(灌水控制上限为田间持水量的50%)3个灌水水平。油菜采摘后恒温贮存,定期测定油菜植株体内硝酸盐、亚硝酸盐含量。研究结果表明:不同灌水水平和贮存时间以及两者的交互作用都能显著地影响油菜植株体硝酸盐和亚硝酸盐含量;在采摘后的8d时间里,低灌水水平处理(0.50θf处理)的油菜植株体硝酸盐含量一直高于其它两处理;采摘后当天测定高灌水水平处理(1.00θf处理)的油菜植株体硝酸盐含量最低,以后则以中等灌水水平处理(0.75θf处理)的油菜植株体硝酸盐含量为最低。采摘后当天测定油菜植株体亚硝酸盐含量,亦以高灌水水平处理(1.00θf处理)为最低。采摘后油菜植株体硝酸盐和亚硝酸盐含量都经历一个先降低、后升高、再降低的变化过程。因此,从对人体健康及卫生的角度出发,以较高灌水水平栽培油菜,采摘后在一两天内食用,有利于将其硝酸盐和亚硝酸含量控制在较低水平。     

Implications of sea level rise for coastal dune habitat conservation in Wales,UK

The potential impact of future sea level rise and climate change on 15 Welsh coastal dune systems has been investigated. Historical Trend Analysis was undertaken using Ordnance Survey maps to quantify past shoreline change and to permit extrapolation of past trends to predict possible future shoreline positions by 2080–2100. Predictions were also made using the Bruun Rule relationship between sea level rise and shoreline response and an integrated method of assessment, Expert Geomorphological Assessment (EGA), which provides a ‘best estimate’ of future coastline change, taking into account such factors as geological constraints, the nature of past, present and future environmental forcing factors, and known coastal process–response relationships. The majority of the 15 systems investigated experienced a net increase in dune area over the last 100–120 years. Only one (Whiteford Burrows) experienced significant net area loss (>5 ha). EGA predictions suggest that several systems are likely to experience significant net loss of dune habitat over the next century, whilst continued net gain is likely to occur for systems where sediment supply rates remain high. Little net change is predicted in some systems. Considering the 15 dune systems together, it is considered unlikely that net dune habitat loss will exceed net gain over the next 100 years provided that there are no major disruptions to sediment supply and natural coastal processes.     

Finding upper-level sets in cellular surface data using echelons and saTScan

Across a spectrum of contemporary contexts from public health to landscape ecology and natural resources, there is need for objective determination of elevated occurrence in phenomena such as disease incidence and biodiversity. Occurrences of such phenomena constitute response surfaces, but data regarding the surface is typically acquired in a cellular framework. The cells may comprise a regular grid, or may be of irregular shapes such as counties in which statistics are collected. Echelons are a topologically based approach to systematic determination of spatial structure in a step surface. Spatial scan statistics are a probability-based approach to the same issue when interest lies in a rate variable. Here we examine the use of echelons both separately and in conjunction with the SaTScan implementation of spatial scan statistics for purposes of determination and visualization of upper-level sets. Consideration is given to both conventional geographic space and to the cellular pseudo-space of contingency tables for ordered categorical variables. Received: August 2002 / Revised: July 2005     

新疆建筑材料用工业废渣及其建材产品的辐射水平

报道了分布在新疆１３个地州市８０多个厂家的建材用工业废渣及其建材产品的放射性检测结果。多数废渣及其产品的放射性水平低于国家规定的限制（控制）标准，可以用作建筑材料，少数地区的部分工业废渣明显高于限制标准，不能用作建筑材料．必须健全放射性检测和管理制度．     

舰面设备环境可靠性试验技术综述

首先介绍了舰面设备环境可靠性的早期发展情况,其环境可靠性试验极不充分,主要依据各种数据评估设备的可靠性。其次叙述了舰面设备环境可靠性试验的近年来的发展过程及现状,其环境可靠性试验技术得到了长足的发展,着重介绍了当前的单机级产品与系统级产品相结合的环境可靠性试验技术以及高可靠产品的加速可靠性试验技术。最后总结了当前舰面设备环境可靠性试验技术的不足之处,并给出了相应的建议,为舰面设备的后续环境可靠性试验工作提供参考。     

二氧化碳排放与经济增长关系的实证分析

在全球范围内为应对气候变化而达成二氧化碳减排共识的背景下,探求“经济增长”与“二氧化碳排放”间相互关系.运用协整,向量自回归模型,脉冲响应函数以及格兰杰因果检验等方法,对处在经济发展不同阶段区域的人均二氧化碳排放量与经济增长间关系进行因果检验.研究结果表明：区域经济发展与人均二氧化碳排放量存在长期均衡关系,但是由于区域间经济发展水平及发展方式的不同,人均二氧化碳排放量与经济增长间相互影响程度存在差异,且二氧化碳排放量的减少并不是经济增长的必然结果,必须通过产业结构调整,扶持第三产业,使用清洁能源,发展低碳经济的方式来实现,本文对我国碳减排政策的制定具有一定借鉴意义.     

南京工业区秋季大气挥发性有机物污染特征及来源解析

2018年秋季在南京利用大气挥发性有机物(volatile organic compounds, VOCs)吸附浓缩在线监测系统(AC-GCMS 1000)对大气VOCs进行连续观测,以了解其化学特征、臭氧生成潜势和污染来源.结果表明,南京秋季大气VOCs体积分数为(64.3±45.6)×10~(-9),以烷烃(33.1%)、含氧挥发性有机物(OVOCs)(22.3%)及卤代烃(21.8%)为主.VOCs的昼夜变化呈"双峰型"变化特征,高值主要出现在清晨的06:00～07:00及夜间的18:00～20:00,主要受机动车排放及气象要素的共同影响.秋季南京VOCs的臭氧生成潜势(ozone formation potential, OFP)为267.1μg·m~(-3),主要贡献物种是芳香烃类化合物(55.2%)和烯烃类化合物(20.8%).PMF受体模型源解析确定5个VOCs来源,分别是交通排放(34%)、工业排放(19%)、LPG排放(17%)、涂料及有机溶剂挥发(16%)以及生物质燃烧和燃煤排放(14%),因此控制南京工业区秋季大气污染应主要着力于交通及工业排放的治理.     

泗河水体及污水厂出水中全氟烷基酸类化合物及其前体物空间分布特征

为探究河流水体和污水厂出水中全氟烷基酸(Perfluoroalkyl Acids,PFAAs)及其前体物的污染特征,采用羟基自由基氧化、WAX固相萃取分离富集、超高效液相色谱-质谱串联相结合的方法,以泗河水体及其附近污水厂出水为例,对上述不同水体中的PFAAs及其前体物的空间分布特征及前体物对水体污染的贡献进行了系统研究.结果表明,泗河水体和附近污水厂出水中PFAAs的总浓度(∑PFAAs)分别为3.87~40.84和55.59~110.91 ng·L~(-1),均值分别为24.92和88.04 ng·L~(-1);PFOS、PFHx S、PFOA、PFHx A和PFNA是浓度较高的污染物;污水厂出水中PFAAs的浓度明显高于泗河,泗河上游水体PFAAs的浓度低于下游.在对水样进行氧化处理后,泗河水体中碳原子数为4~12的全氟羧酸类化合物(Perfluorinated Carboxylic Acids,PFCAs)浓度增加值(∑Δ[PFCAC4-12])低于附近污水厂出水,但污水厂出水中前体物的转化率(Δ[PFCAs]/[PFCAs]氧化前)低于泗河水体,因此,污水处理过程中可能存在前体物的降解.