Distribution of radionuclides among the main components of Lake Chervyanoe in the Eastern Ural Radioactive Trace

Radioecological conditions have been estimated in Lake Chervyanoe located on the central axis of the Eastern Ural Radioactive Trace (EURT) about 100–110 km northeast of the Mayak Production Association. Data on the ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs contents in the main components of the lake, the distribution of these radionuclides over the profile of bottom sediments, and their amounts in the lake are presented. The experimental data have been used to construct mathematical models for estimating changes in the radionuclide concentrations and amounts in the water and bottom sediments of the lake over a long period after the nuclear accident, as well as the tritium content of the lake water in different periods of time.     

基于BP神经网络的苯储罐泄漏事故风险评价模型研究

为了在事故发生之前对苯储罐进行风险评价，提出1种基于BP神经网络的泄漏事故风险评价方法，利用该方法构建了苯储罐的风险评价模型，并对模型进行了训练及验证。研究结果表明:BP神经网络成功完成了建模任务，且模型训练结果较好，可利用基于BP神经网络所构建的苯泄漏事故风险评价模型对苯储罐发生泄漏事故的风险进行评价。     

某热处理厂火灾事故的故障树分析研究

故障树分析法(FTA)是根据系统可能发生的事故或已经发生的事故结果,来研究与事故发生有关的原因、条件和规律,进而实施危险辨识的系统工程方法。本文通过对一起火灾事故的FTA分析,研究相应的控制措施。     

Factors in offshore planning that affect the risk for major accidents

The purpose of this paper is to systematically analyse a typical planning process in the offshore industry from the perspective of causes of major accidents, with the ultimate aim of identifying factors that affect the risk for major accidents occurring. We first study and describe a typical planning process for offshore oil and gas operations in Norway. Then we analyse a number of theories of major accidents, to see how the different theories and their explanations of causes and contributing factors can be of relevance for future plans and planning processes. Finally, we review accident investigations to search for evidence of how weaknesses in planning processes can contribute to major accidents through the above identified factors. Also, we try to identify any additional factors that have not been recognised through the theoretical review. This provides empirical support for the theoretical basis. Thirteen factors which directly or indirectly can influence the planning process causing a major accident potential are identified. These are exemplified through a review of investigation reports. The paper suggests that planning process should focus more on increasing quality in the plans at an early phase, with examples from incidents, and illustrate the relation between planning quality and potential for major accidents.     

基于ARIMA的安全生产事故预测与实证研究

为了减少企业安全管理者在生产作业中由于不确定性导致错误决策所产生的风险,在企业历年安全生产事故数据基础上进行预测具有一定的现实意义。以某企业2008年至2011年的安全生产事故次数时序数据,采用EViews 5统计分析软件,基于ARIMA时间序列预测模型更加关注对事故发生是否平稳而相对于其他预测模型更关注于趋势研究的良好特点,建立安全生产事故ARIMA时序预测模型,并对2012年的安全生产事故发生次数进行预测,通过效果检验发现该模型预测结果基本上能够反映该企业安全生产事故发生的实际情况。通过ARIMA方法在某企业安全生产事故预测具体案例的实现,是对现有安全生产事故预测方法的补充和完善,可为企业安全管理和决策提供一定的指导。     

基于改进的HFACS和SPA的矿山安全人因分析

为了更好地服务于矿山安全管理,同时解决矿山人为因素调查、分析和评价方面存在的缺失,对部分矿山事故进行了统计分析,研究了诱发事故发生的人因因素,并分析了各因素发生的原因。在此基础上,结合对部分矿山安全管理现状的研究,建立了矿山HFACS分析模型。该模型包括5类事故致因、24个人因因素。应用该模型,结合集对分析方法,可实现矿山人因因素定量与定性分析。以陕西省某矿山为例,建立了该矿山的HFACS模型。采用专家评分法、层次分析法确定各因素的权重,计算出系统的联系度表达式。利用该表达式对该矿山的集对势、联系度、不确定性和悲观势进行了分析。结果表明,该矿山人因安全状况良好,个别人因因素指标需要改善和提高。矿山HFACS模型可以很好地涵盖矿山事故中的人因因素,通过对矿山人因现状的集对分析,可以有效提高矿山安全性。     

The Real-World Safety Potential of Connected Vehicle Technology

Objective: This article estimates the safety potential of a current commercially available connected vehicle technology in real-world crashes.

Method: Data from the Centre for Automotive Safety Research's at-scene in-depth crash investigations in South Australia were used to simulate the circumstances of real-world crashes. A total of 89 crashes were selected for inclusion in the study. The crashes were selected as representative of the most prevalent crash types for injury or fatal crashes and had potential to be mitigated by connected vehicle technology. The trajectory, speeds, braking, and impact configuration of the selected in-depth cases were replicated in a software package and converted to a file format allowing “replay” of the scenario in real time as input to 2 Cohda Wireless MK2 onboard units. The Cohda Wireless onboard units are a mature connected vehicle technology that has been used in both the German simTD field trial and the U.S. Department of Transport's Safety Pilot project and have been tuned for low false alarm rates when used in the real world. The crash replay was achieved by replacing each of the onboard unit Global Positioning System (GPS) inputs with the simulated data of each of the involved vehicles. The time at which the Cohda Wireless threat detection software issued an elevated warning was used to calculate a new impact speed using 3 different reaction scenarios and 2 levels of braking.

Results: It was found that between 37 and 86% of the simulated crashes could be avoided, with highest percentage due a fully autonomous system braking at 0.7 g. The same system also reduced the impact speed relative to the actual crash in all cases. Even when a human reaction time of 1.2 s and moderate braking of 0.4 g was assumed, the impact speed was reduced in 78% of the crashes. Crash types that proved difficult for the threat detection engine were head-on crashes where the approach angle was low and right turn–opposite crashes.

Conclusions: These results indicate that connected vehicle technology can be greatly beneficial in real-world crash scenarios and that this benefit would be maximized by having the vehicle intervene autonomously with heavy braking. The crash types that proved difficult for the connected vehicle technology could be better addressed if controller area network (CAN) information is available, such as steering wheel angle, so that driver intent can be inferred sooner. More accurate positioning in the real world (e.g., combining satellite positioning and accelerometer data) would allow the technology to be more effective for near-collinear head-on and rear-end crashes, because the low approach angles that are common in such crashes are currently ignored in order to minimize false alarms due to positioning uncertainty.     

2015年9-10月国内生产安全事故统计分析

统计了2015年9-10月国内发生的各种生产安全事故114起,其中包括交通事故、矿业事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄漏与中毒和其他事故.统计表明,在114起事故中,交通事故占64.91％,矿业事故占3.51％,爆炸事故占5.26％,火灾占2.63％,毒物泄漏与中毒占5.26％,其他事故占18.42％.114起事故共死亡520人.死亡人数的百分比分别为交通事故62.88％,矿业事故5.00％,爆炸事故5.00％,火灾4.62％,毒物泄漏与中毒3.85％,其他事故18.65％.2015年9-10月生产安全事故发生较多的5个省分别为广东(12起)、甘肃(9起)、安徽(9起)、云南(8起)和辽宁(7起);死亡人数较多的5个省分别为安徽(52人)、广东(47人)、河南(39人)、甘肃(38人)和山东(35人).     

固相微萃取-气质联用法测定水中痕量土臭素和二甲基异崁醇

采用固相微萃-气相色谱/质谱法(SPME-GC/MS)对GSM和2-MIB进行富集检测。实验对萃取富集和仪器条件进行了优化,得出最佳实验条件：NaCl投加量30%,萃取温度65℃,萃取时间40 min,解吸3 min,不分流进样,SIM模式采集数据。实验还对萃取头的使用次数和维护进行了探讨。利用已经建立的SPME-GC/MS法对佛山市28家水厂的出厂水和原水、佛山典型景观千灯湖和亚艺公园湖水进行普查。该法具有操作简单快速、能实现自动化连续检测、准确、灵敏度高等特点,适用于饮用水中嗅味物质定性和定量。     

化工企业环境污染突发事件的预防与应急处置对策研究

预防和处置化工企业突发环境污染事件必须从项目建设上注重环境风险评估,科学预测评价环境污染突发性事件可能引发的环境风险,提出环境风险防范和应急措施,防患于未然;在项目建设中落实环境风险防范设施建设,加强建设项目施工全程的环境监管,严格执行"三同时"制度;企业要落实主体责任,加强突发污染事件的应急保障体系建设,建立有效的环境风险管控和应急救援体系,加强安全生产;环保、安监等职能部门要强化现场监管,加大宣传力度,提高环保和安全意识.