APPLICATION OF THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF MODEL USING MULTIPLE-PARAMETER LANDSCAPE ZONES ON THE TOWANDA CREEK BASIN,PENNSYLVANIA1

ABSTRACT: The Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is designed to compute daily stream discharge using satellite snow cover data for a basin divided into elevation zones. For the Towanda Creek basin, a Pennsylvania watershed with relatively little relief, analysis of snow cover images revealed that both elevation and land use affected snow accumulation and melt on the landscape. The distribution of slope and aspect on the watershed was also considered; however, these landscape features were not well correlated with the available snow cover data. SRM streamflow predictions for 1990, 1993 and 1994 snowmelt seasons for the Towanda Creek basin using a combination of elevation and land use zones yielded more precise streamflow estimates than the use of standard elevation zones alone. The use of multiple-parameter zones worked best in non-rain-on-snow conditions such as in 1990 and 1994 seasons where melt was primarily driven by differences in solar radiation. For seasons with major rain-on-snow events such as 1993, only modest improvements were shown since melt was dominated by rainfall energy inputs, condensation and sensible heat convection. Availability of GIS coverages containing satellite snow cover data and other landscape attributes should permit similar reformulation of multiple-parameter watershed zones and improved SRM streamflow predictions on other basins.     

赣中南柑橘果实生长发育规律与栽培技术关系

通过果实体积的累积生长量,日均生长速度和相对生长速率三个指标的测定。可得到各类果实生长的“Ｓ”形曲线。生长呈三个时期,第一期为细胞分裂期,这个时期,生长速度较慢,而相对生长速率最高,是是实生长能力最高阶段;第二期为细胞膨大期,生长速度最快时期,而相对生长速率则呈下降趋势;第三期为成熟期,日均生长速度和相对生长速率都是低速和稳定时期。主要内部生理变化,柑橘各类果 个指标各异,此外,果实生长过程中,有     

MODEL ACCURACY IN SNOWMELT-RUNOFF FORECASTS EXTENDING FROM 1 TO 20 DAYS1

ABSTRACT: This paper examines the performance of snowmelt-runoff models in conditions approximating real-time forecast situations. These tests are one part of an intercomparison of models recently conducted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Daily runoff from the Canadian snowmelt basin Illecille. waet (1155 km², 509–3150 m a.s.l.) was forecast for 1 to 20 days ahead. The performance of models was better than in a previous WMO project, which dealt with runoff simulations from historical data, for the following reasons: (1) conditions for models were more favorable than a real-time forecast situation because measured input data and not meteorological forecast inputs were distributed to the modelers; (2) the selected test basin was relatively easy to handle and familiar from the previous WMO project; and (3) all kinds of updating were allowed so that some models even improved their accuracy towards longer forecast times. Based on this experience, a more realistic follow-up project can be imagined which would include temperature forecasts and quantitative precipitation forecasts instead of measured data.     

1997年11月8日藏北玛尼7.5级大震的预报问题

对 1997年 11月 8日的藏北玛尼大地震 ,我们曾在 1991年进行过预报 ,1997年又曾重申过这个预报。本文用我们过去提出的预报理论和方法 ,对玛尼大震的预报问题再进行更广泛的讨论。文中 ,用立交模式讨论了玛尼大震的孕育机制 ,用 35°线上的 6 0a周期讨论了该震的发生年份 ,用构造交会及“静中动判据”讨论了该地震发生的地点 ,用磁暴倍九法和引潮力增长速度讨论了该震的发震日期 ,用科里奥利力效应讨论了该震余震震级偏小的原因 ,另外 ,还讨论了有关大震 -雪灾链的问题。     

突发事件连锁反应的实证研究——以2008年初我国南方冰雪灾害为例

从突发事件连锁反应分析,认为2008年初我国南方的冰雪灾害是由自然灾害引发的连锁反应事件。选择了新浪网冰雪灾害报道专题的近4 000篇报道作为数据源,从时间、空间和事件角度揭示了此次冰雪灾害的演化过程,并分析了事件扩散的原因。     

多因素下开洞口煤仓风致积雪CFD模拟及拟合研究

为解决结构设计时开洞口圆形煤仓表面无法确定荷载分布系数问题,使用计算流体力学软件研究了开洞口煤仓不同跨度下风向角、积雪厚度及矢跨比变化下屋面积雪不均匀分布情况,提出了针对此种特殊结构的屋面积雪值拟合公式。研究结果表明:此公式拟合准确度高,屋面积雪值随风向角和积雪厚度增大而变大,风向角对积雪值影响极大,矢跨比影响下屋面积雪值变化较为复杂,且风向角和矢跨比2种参数相互影响,不应单一考虑矢跨比对球壳屋面积雪值的影响。     

Daily Updating of Operational Statistical Seasonal Water Supply Forecasts for the western U.S.1

Abstract: Official seasonal water supply outlooks for the western United States are typically produced once per month from January through June. The Natural Resources Conservation Service has developed a new outlook product that allows the automated production and delivery of this type of forecast year‐round and with a daily update frequency. Daily snow water equivalent and water year‐to‐date precipitation data from multiple SNOTEL stations are combined using a statistical forecasting technique (“Z‐Score Regression”) to predict seasonal streamflow volume. The skill of these forecasts vs. lead‐time is comparable to the official published outlooks. The new product matches the intra‐monthly trends in the official forecasts until the target period is partly in the past, when the official forecasts begin to use information about observed streamflows to date. Geographically, the patterns of skill also match the official outlooks, with highest skill in Idaho and southern Colorado and lowest skill in the Colorado Front Range, eastern New Mexico, and eastern Montana. The direct and frequent delivery of objective guidance to users is a significant new development in the operational hydrologic seasonal forecasting community.     

Chlorobenzenes in waterweeds from the Xijiang River （Guangdong section） of the Pearl River

The Xijiang River is the major source of water for about 4.5 millions of urban population and 28.7 millions of rural population. The water quality is very important for the health of the rural population. The concentration and distribution of chlorobenzenes (CBs) in both water and waterweeds collected from 4 stations in the Xijiang River (Gangdong section) of the Pearl River in April and November were determined. The result showed that nearly every congener of CBs was detected. The total contents of CBs (∑CBs) in the river water ranged from 111.1 to 360.0 ng/L in April and from 151.9 to 481.7 ng/L in November, respectively. The pollution level of CBs in the water in April was higher than that in November. The contents of ∑ CBs in waterweeds ranged from 13.53×102 μg/g to 38.27×102μg/g dry weight (dw). There was no significant difference between April and November in waterweeds. The distribution of CBs in roots, caulis, and leaves of Vallisneria spiralis L. showed different patterns. The leaves mainly contained low-molecular-weight CBs(DCBs), whereas the roots accumulated more PCBs and HCBs. The average lgBCFlip (bioconcentration factor) of CBs ranged from 0.64 to 3.57 in the waterweeds. The spatial distribution character of CBs in the Xijiang River was: Fengkai County ＜ Yunan County ＜Yun'an County ＜ Gaoyao County according to the ∑CBs, and the pollution deteriorated from the upstream to the downstream of the Xijiang River. Further analysis demonstrated that the discharge of waste containing CBs may be the main source of CBs pollution in the Xijiang River.     

Effect of Sb dopant amount on the structure and electrocatalytic capability of Ti/Sb-SnO2 electrodes in the oxidation of 4-chlorophenol

Ti/Sb-SnO_2 anodes were prepared by thermal decomposition to examine the influence',of the amount of Sb dopant on the structure and electrocatalytic capability of the electrodes in the oxidation of 4-chlorophenol.The physicochemical properties of the Sb-SnO_2 coating were markedly influenced by different amounts of Sb dopant.The electrodes,which contained 5% Sb dopant in the coating, presented a much more homogenous surface and much smaller mud-cracks,compared with Ti/Sb-SnO_2 electrodes containing 10% or 15% Sb dopant,which exibited larger mud cracks and pores on the surface.However,the main microstructure remained unchanged with the addition of the Sb dopant.No new crystal phase was observed by X-ray diffraction(XRD).The electrochemical oxidation of 4-chlorophenol on the Ti/SnO_2 electrode with 5% Sb dopant was inclined to electrochemical combustion;while for those containing more Sb dopant,intermediate species were accumulated.The electrodes with 5% Sb dopant showed the highest efficiency in the bulk electrolysis of 4-chlorophenol at a current density of 20 mA/cm~2 for 180 min;and the removal rates of 4-chlorophenol and COD were 51.0% and 48.9%,respectively.     

Effect of Snow Cover Conditions on the Hydrologic Regime: Case Study in a Pluvial‐Nival Watershed,Japan1

Abstract: Hydrologic monitoring in a small forested and mountainous headwater basin in Niigata Prefecture has been undertaken since 2000. An important characteristic of the basin is that the hydrologic regime contains pluvial elements year‐round, including rain‐on‐snow, in addition to spring snowmelt. We evaluated the effect of different snow cover conditions on the hydrologic regime by analyzing observed data in conjunction with model simulations of the snowpack. A degree‐day snow model is presented and applied to the study basin to enable estimation of the basin average snow water equivalent using air temperature at three representative elevations. Analysis of hydrological time series data and master recession curves showed that flow during the snowmelt season was generated by a combination of ground water flow having a recession constant of 0.018/day and diurnal melt water flow having a recession constant of 0.015/hour. Daily flows during the winter/snowmelt season showed greater persistence than daily flows during the warm season. The seasonal water balance indicated that the ratio of runoff to precipitation during the cold season (December to May) was about 90% every year. Seasonal snowpack plays an important role in defining the hydrologic regime, with winter precipitation and snowmelt runoff contributing about 65% of the annual runoff. The timing of the snowmelt season, indicated by the date of occurrence of the first significant snowmelt event, was correlated with the occurrence of low flow events. Model simulations showed that basin average snow water equivalent reached a peak around mid‐February to mid‐March, although further validation of the model is required at high elevation sites.