Climate change in mountain regions: how local communities adapt to extreme events

This paper examines how local communities adapt to climate change and how governance structures can foster or undermine adaptive capacity. Climate change policies, in general, and disaster risk management in mountain regions, in particular, are characterised by their multi-level and multi-sectoral nature during formulation and implementation. The involvement of numerous state and non-state actors at local to national levels produces a variety of networks of interaction and communication. The paper argues that the structure of these relational patterns is critical for understanding adaptive capacity. It thus proposes an expanded concept of adaptive capacity that incorporates (horizontal and vertical) actor integration and communication flow between these actors. The paper further advocates the use of formal social network analysis to assess these relational patterns. Preliminary results from research on adaptation to climate change in a Swiss mountain region vulnerable to floods and other natural hazards illustrate the conceptual and empirical significance of the main arguments.     

适应性环境管理模式在大型赛事筹备中 的应用（下） ——应用实例

将适应性环境管理的模式应用于深圳第26届世界大学生夏季运动会生态环境保障工作,对生态环境保障总目标层层分解落实,由第三方评估机构对任务逐项跟踪管理,定期评估各部门绩效,根据外部条件和内部因素的变化对工作方案和阶段性目标进行动态调整,最大限度地降低了环境管理工作的不确定性。经过六个月的实践应用,大运赛事期间深圳市生态环境保障工作取得了十分显著的成效。     

上海新农村建设中生活污水污染现状及处理对策

概述了上海农村生活污水排放现状及对附近河道水环境造成的影响,通过分析当前农村生活污水集中处理和分散处理的利弊和条件、常用的农村生活污水就地处理技术以及归纳总结上海已投入使用就地处理技术,进一步阐述上海农村生活污水就地处理应当因地制宜、综合考虑。最后从农村环境管理和环保法律的层面,以及处理技术角度,提出了应根据建设社会主义新农村的要求和上海郊区农村当地的实际情况,进行上海郊区农村生活污水治理的总体思路。     

Effects of the adaptations to climate changes on the income of herdsmen in Qinghai Province

This study aims to implement the empirical analysis of the effects of the adaptive measures on the income of herdsmen in the context of the climate change with the positive mathematical programming(PMP)model.The survey was first implemented in three counties in the Three Headwaters Region.Finally the measures and recommendations suitable for the economic development in the ecologically fragile areas were proposed.The main conclusions are as follows:priority can be given to the measures to prevent the damage from rats and the engineering measures for pasture maintenance in Zeku County,where the geological conditions and grass quality are inferior,while the fiscal subsidy can be prioritized in Tongde County where the grassland area is relatively less.These recommendations can not only provide good reference for the protection of grassland resources,but they also lay a foundation for the implementation of more suitable measures to help the herdsmen in the ecologically fragile areas to adapt to the climate change.     

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Kenya

Abstract

To determine the climate changes that are due to natural variability and those due to human activities is quite challenging, just like delineating the impacts. Moreover, it is equally difficult to ascertain the adaptive strategies for coping with the climate changes and in particular for developing countries like Kenya. While climate change is a global phenomenon, the impacts are more or less specific to local areas such as observed in Kenyan case. Therefore climate change impacts adaptation strategies are appropriately applicable to a given local perspective. The study investigated the main indicators of climate change and effective adaptive strategies that can be employed in Kenya. Based on online questionnaire survey, the study established unpredictable rainfall patterns as the major indicator of climate change in the country, while water harvesting and change of cropping methods are the best adaptive strategies.     

Passive and active adaptive management: approaches and an example

Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. Yet there remains considerable confusion about what adaptive management entails, and how to actually make resource decisions adaptively. A key but somewhat ambiguous distinction in adaptive management is between active and passive forms of adaptive decision making. The objective of this paper is to illustrate some approaches to active and passive adaptive management with a simple example involving the drawdown of water impoundments on a wildlife refuge. The approaches are illustrated for the drawdown example, and contrasted in terms of objectives, costs, and potential learning rates. Some key challenges to the actual practice of AM are discussed, and tradeoffs between implementation costs and long-term benefits are highlighted.     

Scientists' opinions on the global status and management of biological diversity

The large investments needed if loss of biological diversity is to be stemmed will likely lead to increased public and political scrutiny of conservation strategies and the science underlying them. It is therefore crucial to understand the degree of consensus or divergence among scientists on core scientific perceptions and strategies most likely to achieve given objectives. I developed an internet survey designed to elucidate the opinions of conservation scientists. Conservation scientists (n =583) were unanimous (99.5%) in their view that a serious loss of biological diversity is likely, very likely, or virtually certain. Scientists' agreement that serious loss is very likely or virtually certain ranged from 72.8% for Western Europe to 90.9% for Southeast Asia. Tropical coral ecosystems were perceived as the most seriously affected by loss of biological diversity; 88.0% of respondents familiar with that ecosystem type agreed that a serious loss is very likely or virtually certain. With regard to conservation strategies, scientists most often viewed understanding how people and nature interact in certain contexts and the role of biological diversity in maintaining ecosystem function as their priorities. Protection of biological diversity for its cultural and spiritual values and because of its usefulness to humans were low priorities, which suggests that many scientists do not fully support the utilitarian concept of ecosystem services. Many scientists expressed a willingness to consider conservation triage, engage in active conservation interventions, and consider reframing conservation goals and measures of success for conservation of biological diversity in an era of climate change. Although some heterogeneity of opinion is evident, results of the survey show a clear consensus within the scientific community on core issues of the extent and geographic scope of loss of biological diversity and on elements that may contribute to successful conservation strategies in the future.     

基于重要抽样法的耐压球壳可靠性计算方法研究

目的 解决耐压球壳极小失效概率的可靠性计算问题。方法 在自适应Kriging的基础上,结合重要抽样法提出耐压球壳可靠性计算方法。该方法在较大失效概率下构建的Kriging模型基础上获得重要方向,在重要方向上计算得到较低失效概率下的设计点,以设计点为中心,构建小失效概率的Kriging模型,并通过此模型采用重要抽样法开展可靠性计算。结果 分别使用提出的重要抽样法和蒙特卡洛法计算了2个算例的失效概率,计算结果表明,该方法具有较高的精度和效率。使用该方法对某耐压球壳工作载荷下的失效概率进行了计算,计算得到该球壳失效概率为4.094×10^–96。结论 研究结果可为无失效方程下极低失效概率的可靠性计算问题提供参考。     

基于双电极传感器的腐蚀电流检测系统抗扰技术

目的 针对金属电化学腐蚀中腐蚀电流检测,设计一种高精度I-V转换的微电流检测电路,突破宽范围微弱电流高精度检测技术。方法 通过分析电路的稳定性,针对100 pA~10 mA的微弱腐蚀电流采集,采用法安级偏置运放实现I-V转换,设计基于ADG708电子开关的8档自动调节电路,并通过24位ADC实现高精度模数转换。针对微弱电流采集中信号易受噪声的影响,设计自适应滤波器用于信号滤波处理。结果 通过MATLAB仿真自适应滤波器的有效性,结果表明,在采集i(k)=2sin(2πk)电流时,误差从0.29 mA(1σ)降低到0.003 9 mA(1σ)。通过电流源校准测试系统精度,在100 pA时误差最大,为4.7%;在10 mA时误差最小,为0.049%。当电流值低于100 nA时,测量误差可以控制在5%以内;100 nA以上时,测量误差可以控制在1%以内。结论 在微弱电流采样中引入自适应滤波器后,系统的采样精度显著提高,突破了宽范围的腐蚀电流采集技术,实现了微弱电流检测。可以将腐蚀电流应用在金属腐蚀速率的评价中。