基于PM2.5的中国雾霾灾害风险评价

基于雾霾胁迫、人口暴露和适应能力,结合遥感数据与统计数据,对2014年中国286个地级及以上城市的雾霾灾害风险进行评价,在此基础上,识别雾霾灾害风险热点区的风险主导因子.结果表明:中国城市雾霾灾害风险整体水平不高且内部差异显著,雾霾灾害风险大体呈"东高西低、北高南低"的空间布局特征.雾霾灾害风险热点区范围涵盖96个城市,占据国土面积92.4万km~2,波及人群数量5.9亿.风险主导因子分区方面,适应能力主导区分布在汕头、揭阳、邵阳、娄底、玉林、汕尾、达州、巴中、天水、昭通、潮州和贵港等12个城市;雾霾胁迫主导区分布在郑州、上海、成都、泰州、济南、西安、武汉、鄂州、南京、扬州、天津、无锡、嘉兴、南昌、常州、芜湖、淄博、合肥、镇江、黄石、马鞍山、南通和日照等23个城市,其余61个城市则属于雾霾胁迫-适应能力综合主导区.     

自适应人工鱼群-BP神经网络算法在径流预测中的应用

为了提高水库和河流中长期径流预测精度,提出了弹性自适应人工鱼群算法(RAAFSA)。应用RAAFSA算法训练BP神经网络,实现BP神经网络参数优化,形成弹性自适应人工鱼群-BP神经网络混合算法(RAAFSA-BP),对石泉水库进行中长期径流预测。仿真计算表明,弹性自适应人工鱼群优化的BP神经网络算法收敛速度快于BP神经网络算法、人工鱼群-BP神经网络算法和RBF神经网络算法。该混合算法克服了BP神经网络和人工鱼群算法易陷于局部极值、搜索质量差和精度不高的缺点,改善了BP神经网络的泛化能力,输出稳定性好,预报精度显著提高,每次预测相对误差绝对值都小于6%,合格率达到100%。该算法成功地解决了石泉水库中长期径流预测精度不高的难题,可有效用于水库和河川中长期径流预测。     

长三角重点行业大气污染物排放及控制对策

研究重点分析了长江三角洲地区电力和水泥行业的大气污染物排放特征,并结合相关行业统计数据和污染物排放因子,对2004年这两个重点行业的大气污染物排放量进行了估算。结论如下:长三角地区火电行业2004年SO2、烟尘、NOX和燃煤大气汞排放量分别为149.2×104t、21.1×104t、87.6×104t和13.7t。2004年江、浙、沪三地水泥行业共排放工艺粉尘76.2×104t,其中PM10为70.1×104t、PM2.5为45.9×104t,气态污染物SO2、NOX、CO和氟化物排放量分别为12.4×104t、49.5×104t、247.9×104t和7.4×104t。并对长三角地区电力和水泥行业的污染控制问题提出一些相关举措。     

区域生态系统适应性管理概念、理论框架及其应用研究

论述了生态系统适应性管理基本概念与生态系统适应循环,着重分析了生态系统恢复力范围、抗性、不稳定性与跨尺度影响。生态系统适应循环通常经历入侵、保持、破坏、调整四个阶段,前两个阶段的生态系统演替是可以预测的,而后两个阶段是复杂、难以预测的。文章提出了适应性区域生态系统管理的基本概念,并构建了其理论框架,并以三峡库区小江流域为例,对小江流域景观生态特征、区域生态胁迫进行了详细分析。在此基础上,提出要以水生生态安全为总目标,并围绕这一目标,进行流域各生态系统的恢复力辨识、生态系统适应性循环过程研究,从各系统恢复力属性特征出发,提出了具体的适应性管理方法与模式。     

Using ecosystem-services assessments to determine trade-offs in ecosystem-based management of marine mammals

The goal of ecosystem-based management (EBM) is to support a sustainable and holistic multisectored management approach, and is recognized in a number of international policy frameworks. However, it remains unknown how these goals should be linked to assessments and management plans for marine fauna, such as mammals and fish stocks. It appears particularly challenging to carry out trade-off analyses of various ocean uses without a framework that integrates knowledge of environmental, social, and economic benefits derived from nonstationary marine fauna. We argue this gap can be filled by applying a version of the ecosystem-service approach at the population level of marine fauna. To advance this idea, we used marine mammals as a case study to demonstrate what indicators could operationalize relevant assessments and deliver an evidence base for the presence of ecosystem services and disservices derived from marine mammals. We found indicators covering common ecosystem service categories feasible to apply; examples of indicator data are already available in the literature for several populations. We encourage further exploration of this approach for application to marina fauna and biodiversity management, with the caveat that conceptual tensions related to the use of the ecosystem service concept itself needs to be addressed to ensure acceptance by relevant stakeholders.     

Identifying key needs for the integration of social–ecological outcomes in arctic wildlife monitoring

For effective monitoring in social–ecological systems to meet needs for biodiversity, science, and humans, desired outcomes must be clearly defined and routes from direct to derived outcomes understood. The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic, ecological, social, and economic changes and requires effective wildlife monitoring to meet diverse stakeholder needs. To identify stakeholder priorities concerning desired outcomes of arctic wildlife monitoring, we conducted in-depth interviews with 29 arctic scientists, policy and decision makers, and representatives of indigenous organizations and nongovernmental organizations. Using qualitative content analysis, we identified and defined desired outcomes and documented links between outcomes. Using network analysis, we investigated the structure of perceived links between desired outcomes. We identified 18 desired outcomes from monitoring and classified them as either driven by monitoring information, monitoring process, or a combination of both. Highly cited outcomes were make decisions, conserve, detect change, disseminate, and secure food. These reflect key foci of arctic monitoring. Infrequently cited outcomes (e.g., govern) were emerging themes. Three modules comprised our outcome network. The modularity highlighted the low strength of perceived links between outcomes that were primarily information driven or more derived (e.g., detect change, make decisions, conserve, or secure food) and outcomes that were primarily process driven or more derived (e.g., cooperate, learn, educate). The outcomes expand monitoring community and disseminate created connections between these modules. Key desired outcomes are widely applicable to social–ecological systems within and outside the Arctic, particularly those with wildlife subsistence economies. Attributes and motivations associated with outcomes can guide development of integrated monitoring goals for biodiversity conservation and human needs. Our results demonstrated the disconnect between information- and process-driven goals and how expansion of the monitoring community and improved integration of monitoring stakeholders will help connect information- and process-derived outcomes for effective ecosystem stewardship.     

中国内河船舶大气防污染对策及运力结构改善对沿岸港口大气环境质量的影响

针对IMO防止船舶大气污染的国际公约及中国内河船舶大气污染防治历史与现状，结合西部大开发及中国内河航运的发展规划，对内河船舶大气污染的防治对策、主任任务及措施实施后对沿线主要港口城市大气环境质量的影响进行了研究和探讨，在此基础上提出了中国内河船舶未来一段时期大气污染防治的根本思路与战略。     

“中国南方喀斯特”世界自然遗产申报战略研究

中国南方喀斯特地区面积大,自然资源丰富,生态环境脆弱,在世界喀斯特地区中极具代表性。文章依据中国南方喀斯特地区独特的自然特征和社会、经济功能,借助申报自然遗产机遇,为实现该区人口、资源、环境与社会的可持续发展,提出了一系列针对中国南方喀斯特地区的保护策略及措施。     

中国地震灾害防御对策的进展及今后的发展趋势

本文详细的论述了地震灾害效应,并给出了地震灾害防御对策的准确概念。在总结中国近二十年地震灾害防御对策的基础上,给出了今后我国地震灾害防御对策的发展趋势,对于我国今后开展震害防御工作具有一定意义。     

Integrating agricultural and forestry GHG mitigation response into general economy frameworks: Developing a family of response functions

An econometrically estimated family ofresponse functions is developed forcharacterizing potential responses togreenhouse gas mitigation policies by theagriculture and forestry sectors in theU.S. The response functions are estimatedbased on results of anagricultural/forestry sector model. Theyprovide estimates of sequestration andemission reductions in forestry andagriculture along with levels of sectoralproduction, prices, welfare, andenvironmental attributes given a carbonprice, levels of demand for agriculturalgoods, and the energy price. Sixalternative mitigation policiesrepresenting types of greenhouse gasoffsets allowed are considered. Resultsindicate that the largest quantity ofgreenhouse gas offset consistently appearswith the mitigation policy that pays forall opportunities. Restricting carbonpayments (emission tax or sequestrationsubsidy) only to aff/deforestation or onlyto agricultural sequestration substantiallyreduces potential mitigation. Highercarbon prices lead to more sequestration,less emissions, reduced consumer and totalwelfare, improved environmental indicatorsand increased producer welfare.